2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

So you need to take more of bigger picture view rather than just looking at the NAO in isolation. If you noticed we finally got something close to a BM track the last few days. The reason the lagged -NAO correlation finally worked now and not over the winter was due to the Pacific Jet backing off a bit from recent months. My guess is that the record warmth in Siberia weakened the gradient between the record SST warmth east of Japan allowing the jet to back off.

Sounds similar to what happened at the end of the winter of 2008-09, except that storm was at the beginning of March, so we cashed in with a big snowstorm. This one was in mid-April, so we ended up with a cold rain event. Hopefully, like the 3/1/2009 snowstorm, this event could be the precursor to the next great run of snowstorms.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well I got barely any rain out of this nor'easter. It was suppose to last for 4 days, and it was only 2 days. It seems like the overall dry pattern is still in effect, where the best chance at good rains comes from a SE ridge and low pressure coming in from the west and thunderstorms. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Weak

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Sounds similar to what happened at the end of the winter of 2008-09, except that storm was at the beginning of March, so we cashed in with a big snowstorm. This one was in mid-April, so we ended up with a cold rain event. Hopefully, like the 3/1/2009 snowstorm, this event could be the precursor to the next great run of snowstorms.

Philly is in a much different multiyear snow drought this time around. The 7 year snowfall average dipped to 10.5” for the first time on record after 24-25 snowfall season just ended. Marking an unprecedented reversal from the 7 year record high of 36.8” in 15-16. 
 

Lowest 7 year snowfall averages in Philly 

2025….10.5”

1992….14.9”

1977…..14.4”

1955….13.4”

1933….12.5”

 

[George001]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The main correlation with storm tracks since 18-19 has been the Pacific Jet. We got a relaxation during 20-21 which allowed the  -NAO -AO to produce a KU BM track on 2-1-21 and another smaller BM event about a week later. Also a brief window in January 22 with the MJO 8 +PNA which favored areas from ACY to ISP to BOS. Just a little wide of the BM for areas a little further west to cash in.

But most other times the Pacific Jet has had an overpowering influence leading to cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. Plus the stronger Southeast Ridge influence even at times of strong -NAO and -AO intervals which was absent before this decade at times of such strong blocking. So this adds a new conditionality to those older correlations. 

So you need to take more of bigger picture view rather than just looking at the NAO in isolation. If you noticed we finally got something close to a BM track the last few days. The reason the lagged -NAO correlation finally worked now and not over the winter was due to the Pacific Jet backing off a bit from recent months. My guess is that the record warmth in Siberia weakened the gradient between the record SST warmth east of Japan allowing the jet to back off.

 

Unfortunately too late as winter ended 3 weeks ago, but this is good news for next year if it continues.

[michsnowfreak]

On 4/12/2025 at 10:02 AM, FPizz said:

There are ex-Mt. Holly Mets on a Philly board that laugh at the Philly temps and acknowledge they are off, but things rarely get fixed it seems.  It took me years of complaining to get New Brunswick NJ temps fixed as it turns out their sensor needed recalibration.   Do you think they ever go back and adjust the years of wrong data, doubt it.  

Im assuming the philly temps are high? I dont think ive ever seen an ASOS issue where temps are too low, but frequently where they are too high. If its a first-order station (which obviously PHL is) they should be calibrated immediately. But if it is not a first order station they often just let it go, which is why some love to bring up funky data from random stations to show how "warm" they are. 

Im also under the understanding that ASOS can run slightly WARMER than a real mercury thermometer would, but as long as its within whatever the margin of error is, its fine. Really, IMO all these things are absolutely ridiculous, but ill zip my lip for discussing further. 

DTW had a problem with their ASOS, I want to say last summer. They had people working on it immediately but I guess they had to order parts for it or whatever. Because of this, for like 2 weeks they had to use the temps and rainfall from nearby YIP. 

None of these problems would have EVER happened in the 1890s, 1920s, 1950s, 1970s etc when you had a mercury thermometer and a standard rain gauge that was all monitored by a human (the same humans that some are maligning for their alleged snow measuring practices that they assumably took, as if we were there to corroborate lol).  

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im assuming the philly temps are high? I dont think ive ever seen an ASOS issue where temps are too low, but frequently where they are too high. If its a first-order station (which obviously PHL is) they should be calibrated immediately. But if it is not a first order station they often just let it go, which is why some love to bring up funky data from random stations to show how "warm" they are. 

Im also under the understanding that ASOS can run slightly WARMER than a real mercury thermometer would, but as long as its within whatever the margin of error is, its fine. Really, IMO all these things are absolutely ridiculous, but ill zip my lip for discussing further. 

DTW had a problem with their ASOS, I want to say last summer. They had people working on it immediately but I guess they had to order parts for it or whatever. Because of this, for like 2 weeks they had to use the temps and rainfall from nearby YIP. 

None of these problems would have EVER happened in the 1890s, 1920s, 1950s, 1970s etc when you had a mercury thermometer and a standard rain gauge that was all monitored by a human (the same humans that some are maligning for their alleged snow measuring practices that they assumably took, as if we were there to corroborate lol).  

heh... you may be right, buuut ... you know, my sister lives in S. Jersey.   When I've visited there, I know first hand from our trips over the bridge that that city sprawl is truly immense, concrete and iron for miles in every direction.  ...Summer solar glaring away...  I'd be willing to at least test the notion that the UHI is particularly enhanced around that region of the megalopolis.  

Same sort of effect up around EWR's industrial complex, downtown and straddling the highway ... The AP is right there  -that fuggin region is like an iron cauldron over a witch's torch. 

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... you may be right, buuut ... you know, my sister lives in S. Jersey.   When I've visited there, I know first hand from our trips over the bridge that that city sprawl is truly immense, concrete and iron for miles in every direction.  ...Summer solar glaring away...  I'd be willing to at least test the notion that the UHI is particularly enhanced around that region of the megalopolis.  

Same sort of effect up around EWR's industrial complex, downtown and straddling the highway ... The AP is right there  -that fuggin region is like an iron cauldron over a witch's torch. 

I am not familiar with that area at all, but Im wondering if Fizz's point is not that there is UHI or what not, but that the PHL thermometer still seems high.

Detroit data comes from the suburbs, not the city. DTW is located in a suburban area that actually radiates fine, but the airport itself has gotten SO much concrete now that its a given the temps will be warmer than surrounding areas (even though obviously ASOS is in a grassy area, Im sure the same is at PHL). Its just the way it goes, so I have no issue with it (I think the fact that DTW currently being in suburbia at a concrete heavy airport MORE than levels the playing field and makes up for the fact that 70-150 years ago data was taken in the city but with far fewer artificial warming influences). But if I noticed that the thermometer was consistently reading too high even considering those circumstances, Id be pissed too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I am not familiar with that area at all, but Im wondering if Fizz's point is not that there is UHI or what not, but that the PHL thermometer still seems high.

Detroit data comes from the suburbs, not the city. DTW is located in a suburban area that actually radiates fine, but the airport itself has gotten SO much concrete now that its a given the temps will be warmer than surrounding areas (even though obviously ASOS is in a grassy area, Im sure the same is at PHL). Its just the way it goes, so I have no issue with it (I think the fact that DTW currently being in suburbia at a concrete heavy airport MORE than levels the playing field and makes up for the fact that 70-150 years ago data was taken in the city but with far fewer artificial warming influences). But if I noticed that the thermometer was consistently reading too high even considering those circumstances, Id be pissed too. 

Yeah, I get it - I was just adding my first hand accounting to/for the consideration... 

UHI is intense in that region.   That much I am in direct observation.  But, that also doesn't preclude the possibility of instrumentation, too.  Both could certainly be true -

[beavis1729]

On 3/1/2025 at 10:12 AM, raindancewx said:

Good to see my analog method still works. I wasn't crazy for thinking the past winter would be like 2013-14.

I never showed my forecast here, but the idea was essentially a bunch of years with alternating waves of expansive record warmth, brief record cold, and more concentrated modest cold. So I expected the 2013-14 aspect of the pattern to persist with less consistency and severity but I expected that was the closest analog overall. Locally I forecast three weeks of severe cold and ten weeks of near-record to record warmth which worked pretty well.

 

I know analogs aren't going to be relevant at every single location in the lower 48...but 2013-14 was one of the harshest winters on record in parts of the Midwest with respect to both cold and snow, and 2024-25 was one of the least harsh and most boring & uneventful winters that I can remember in my lifetime (I've lived in northern IL for 45 years)...at least when using snow depth days (SDDs) as a metric.

In terms of sensible outcomes and "feel", the two winters were literally as opposite from each other as possible. It wasn't even close. One example of this is that Chicago and Detroit had near record snowfall in 2013-14, while Moline IL (not very far away from Chicago) just had their least snowy winter on record in 2024-25. While there were definitely some cold outbreaks this past winter, the severity was unfortunately mitigated in may areas due to lack of snow cover over a large swath of real estate. With decent snow cover, this past winter could have been a memorably cold winter here...but instead it was just "meh".

None of this is meant to be a knock on your post/conclusions.  I'm just suggesting that, for a winter weather lover, it all comes down to sensible weather/feel and IMBY outcomes.

[FPizz]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im assuming the philly temps are high? I dont think ive ever seen an ASOS issue where temps are too low, but frequently where they are too high. If its a first-order station (which obviously PHL is) they should be calibrated immediately. But if it is not a first order station they often just let it go, which is why some love to bring up funky data from random stations to show how "warm" they are. 

Im also under the understanding that ASOS can run slightly WARMER than a real mercury thermometer would, but as long as its within whatever the margin of error is, its fine. Really, IMO all these things are absolutely ridiculous, but ill zip my lip for discussing further. 

DTW had a problem with their ASOS, I want to say last summer. They had people working on it immediately but I guess they had to order parts for it or whatever. Because of this, for like 2 weeks they had to use the temps and rainfall from nearby YIP. 

None of these problems would have EVER happened in the 1890s, 1920s, 1950s, 1970s etc when you had a mercury thermometer and a standard rain gauge that was all monitored by a human (the same humans that some are maligning for their alleged snow measuring practices that they assumably took, as if we were there to corroborate lol).  

Yes they were high.  Rainshadow (Tony gigi) who posted here years ago, is the main one acknowledging the incorrect temps.  I'm not sure why there is so much red tape when they know things are off.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

I know analogs aren't going to be relevant at every single location in the lower 48...but 2013-14 was one of the harshest winters on record in parts of the Midwest with respect to both cold and snow, and 2024-25 was one of the least harsh and most boring & uneventful winters that I can remember in my lifetime (I've lived in northern IL for 45 years)...at least when using snow depth days (SDDs) as a metric.

In terms of sensible outcomes and "feel", the two winters were literally as opposite from each other as possible. It wasn't even close. One example of this is that Chicago and Detroit had near record snowfall in 2013-14, while Moline IL (not very far away from Chicago) just had their least snowy winter on record in 2024-25. While there were definitely some cold outbreaks this past winter, the severity was unfortunately mitigated in may areas due to lack of snow cover over a large swath of real estate. With decent snow cover, this past winter could have been a memorably cold winter here...but instead it was just "meh".

None of this is meant to be a knock on your post/conclusions.  I'm just suggesting that, for a winter weather lover, it all comes down to sensible weather/feel and IMBY outcomes.

Chicago snowfall really sucked this winter but it still was a lot colder than most forecast. Using yout SDDs metric Chicago had 42 and Detroit 142

[chubbs]

16 hours ago, FPizz said:

Yes they were high.  Rainshadow (Tony gigi) who posted here years ago, is the main one acknowledging the incorrect temps.  I'm not sure why there is so much red tape when they know things are off.

You are making a mountain out of a molehill. The Philly airport ran roughly a degree warm in 2022. The sensor was replaced and 2023 and 2024 are back to normal. Easy to track by comparing to nearby sites. NOAA and other experts won't be fooled.

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, chubbs said:

You are making a mountain out of a molehill. The Philly airport ran roughly a degree warm in 2022. The sensor was replaced and 2023 and 2024 are back to normal. Easy to track by comparing to nearby sites. 

The biggest issue for the Philly airport is it consistently is subject to cooling breezes off the Delaware River. This makes it an unrealistic proxy for the actual warm season temperatures in downtown Philadelphia which runs several degrees warmer. So residents in the densest population zones in the Philadelphia urban centers are experiencing warmer conditions than the airport. 

Same goes for the airport at Newark. The ASOS is very close to the bay and experiences cooling sea breezes which keep the temperatures lower than the urban areas just inland from the sea breeze influence. So where the residents actually live they experience warmer conditions than the airport. 

NYC has a different twist to underreporting the actual urban temperatures. When the NWS left NYC in the early 1990s the Central Park observing site fell into disrepair. They installed an ASOS under a tree canopy placing it in the deep shade in 1995. The old ASOS was in an open sitting not under a cooler canopy. So this created an artificial cooling in the NYC temperature record around 1995 since the measurements before then were taken out in the open. This is why the NYC readings started running cooler than surrounding sites when it had been warmer or as warm as the surrounding sites in the years prior to the 1990s. 

LaGuardia airport also has issues with cooler warm season readings than the surrounding sites since the ASOS is right on the water and gets cooling breezes. So its temperatures in the warm season run cooler than the surrounding sites. The good news is that NYC established a micronet and placed sensors in the densest urban city neighborhoods where the people actually live. These readings have shown that the neighborhoods where the people actually live have consistently run warmer than the airport. There have been numerous 100° readings just inland from the airport to the south when the airport only maxed out in the 90s.

So the moral of the story is that we need more thermometers in the warmer neighborhoods since they aren’t subject to the cooling breezes that the airports often get. This does a disservice to the residents in these urban environments that have to experience higher levels of heat than the cooler local airports.
 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

You are making a mountain out of a molehill. The Philly airport ran roughly a degree warm in 2022. The sensor was replaced and 2023 and 2024 are back to normal. Easy to track by comparing to nearby sites. NOAA and other experts won't be fooled.

One degree is the end of the world to many on this site.  He still complains it's still too warm BTW. 1 degree too cold and you would flip out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/12/2025 at 10:13 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Cold water in the subsurface is trying to get squeezed out.. but this negative pool in the central-subsurface should at the very least keep us away from El Nino in the next few months. 

Yea, means a moderate-strong El Nino is probably off of the table, which we had all assumed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

I know analogs aren't going to be relevant at every single location in the lower 48...but 2013-14 was one of the harshest winters on record in parts of the Midwest with respect to both cold and snow, and 2024-25 was one of the least harsh and most boring & uneventful winters that I can remember in my lifetime (I've lived in northern IL for 45 years)...at least when using snow depth days (SDDs) as a metric.

In terms of sensible outcomes and "feel", the two winters were literally as opposite from each other as possible. It wasn't even close. One example of this is that Chicago and Detroit had near record snowfall in 2013-14, while Moline IL (not very far away from Chicago) just had their least snowy winter on record in 2024-25. While there were definitely some cold outbreaks this past winter, the severity was unfortunately mitigated in may areas due to lack of snow cover over a large swath of real estate. With decent snow cover, this past winter could have been a memorably cold winter here...but instead it was just "meh".

None of this is meant to be a knock on your post/conclusions.  I'm just suggesting that, for a winter weather lover, it all comes down to sensible weather/feel and IMBY outcomes.

Same here....2013-2014 had above normal snowfall, whiile this past winter was brutal. However, obviosuly snowfall is subject to a high degree of variance and I do see the value in 2013-2014 as one of the better analogs.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

90-day SOI is near +9.. here's how that rolls forward to following years ENSO

Pretty good North Pacific High (+NOI) correlation

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here is how Dec - March 24-25 compares with 13-14

It was relatively the 2nd coldest Dec - Feb in the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS since 13-14 though. I do get that "cool analog" correlation