2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, you and the article are wrong. I understand that you keep finding articles to support your position, but it quite simply isn't the case. Snowfall measuring today is sloppy and yes, sometimes UNDERmeasured. Additonally, many snowfall measurements are not made using the 6 hour method.

I sound like a broken record repeating over and over....most first order stations in climates prone to snow have used the 6 hour method since 1950. I wouldnt worry about coop totals because they ALWAYS should be taken with a grain of salt, whether its the early days of the 1800s or the present day.

As for pre-1950 measurments, were any of us THERE to confirm what snowfalls were accurately or accurately not measured? Its crazy to to me to think that some will take a journal from the 1700s or a newspaper from the 1800s at face value, and assume "wow if they say there was 3 feet on the level imagine how much would be meausured every 6 hours".....yet they question these 1900s-1940s measurments that have well documented records by the then Weather Bureau to go with them.

I normally dont play the game of finding some random city that appears to have undermeasured snowfall in the 1930s and assume that was everyone, but for every one of those i could post 10 first order stations who data appears just fine. But Im so intrigued by this NYC discussion i may poke around in some of their data on ncdc later.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said this earlier, but the best way to measure snowfall is to give two numbers....total snowfall (6 hour swipe) and snow depth. Problem solved.

100%. Its as simple as can be. And again, outside of these huge storms its really a minor issue. 

Although today was a great example of that. We were treated to a late season snowfall last night ( @LibertyBell you thought the flurries at the game the other day were nice, it snowed steadily all night last night!). I swiped my board at midnight. 0.5" fell before midnight and 1.1" after, so I finished with 1.6" of wet snow, however my morning snow depth was 1".

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BTW, a warming climate also holds more moisture, so its not outlandish to think that the modern snowfall ceiling along the north east coast is actually higher than it was 50-100 years ago...however, I understand the limitations and agree that moderate snowfalls are growing less frequent due to said warmth. 

I have noticed this subtly for years now...the milder winters do better with snow now than they did decades ago. Honestly, a warming climate is a boon for snow lovers in northern New England, the upper midwest and northern Great Lakes. And once you get down to your and my latitude, while it can lead to some frustration it can also lead to some great winters, and I do not see our snowfall averages falling anytime soon. More worries once you get to NYC, but even there, I wouldnt exactly worry if i lived there since it can snow in Pensacola lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have noticed this subtly for years now...the milder winters do better with snow now than they did decades ago. Honestly, a warming climate is a boon for snow lovers in northern New England, the upper midwest and northern Great Lakes. And once you get down to your and my latitude, while it can lead to some frustration it can also lead to some great winters, and I do not see our snowfall averages falling anytime soon. More worries once you get to NYC, but even there, I wouldnt exactly worry if i lived there since it can snow in Pensacola lol.

I don't think my area will decline any time soon, but I do think its turning more feast or famine.

[michsnowfreak]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think my area will decline any time soon, but I do think its turning more feast or famine.

Yeah, the east coast is prone to that moreso than here. I dont see snowfall turning feast or famine here, but snowcover days might.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

100%. Its as simple as can be. And again, outside of these huge storms its really a minor issue. 

Although today was a great example of that. We were treated to a late season snowfall last night ( @LibertyBell you thought the flurries at the game the other day were nice, it snowed steadily all night last night!). I swiped my board at midnight. 0.5" fell before midnight and 1.1" after, so I finished with 1.6" of wet snow, however my morning snow depth was 1".

Nice, at Central Park this would have been recorded as 1.0 lol

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You mention mixing and I am glad you did......say KBOS receives 13" of snowfall in December, and then the coastal front sweeps in and changes it to rain with the temperature spiking to near 50 degrees between measurements. There are many instances in which the observer will not take the initative to procure they truely accurate measurement of total snowall, despite a few inches being lost.

Yes this has been the case at NYC more than a few times too.  I've even seen the straight 10:1 ratio applied and we can't really tell if the ratio was applied to calculate the snowfall total or it actually was a 10:1 ratio (I'm suspicious of the perfect 10.0, 6.0 and 1.0 amounts I mentioned earlier.)

 

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Nice, at Central Park this would have been recorded as 1.0 lol

lol and that is wrong. Central Park would actually be a perfect area to measure snow. A park presents more of the "textbook definition" of a preferred area to measure snow (sheltered but open, less prone to drifting). Many airports snow observers (DTW included) are measuring snow at a nearby more "user friendly" site because of the difficulty modern airports can produce. Central Park is literally A PARK and they cant get it right? 

[michsnowfreak]

In these ENSo threads, weve discussed some of the weird things that have occurred since the nino of 2015-16, so I thought Id share this.

Since the snowy blitz of 2007-15, winters have exhibited a very strange characteristic at Detroit. While Jan-Feb stays snowy, some wonky thinks have been happening on the fringe ends of the season.

The amount of times in a snow season recently that either November has had more snow than December, or April has had more snow than March, has been astounding.

2024-25: Apr snowier than Mar
2023-24: Nov snowier than Dec
2021-22: Nov snowier than Dec & Apr snowier than Mar
2020-21: Apr snowier than Mar
2019-20: Nov snowier than Dec & Apr snowier than Mar
2018-19: Nov snowier than Dec
2015-16: Nov snowier than Dec
2014-15: Nov snowier than Dec

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

lol and that is wrong. Central Park would actually be a perfect area to measure snow. A park presents more of the "textbook definition" of a preferred area to measure snow (sheltered but open, less prone to drifting). Many airports snow observers (DTW included) are measuring snow at a nearby more "user friendly" site because of the difficulty modern airports can produce. Central Park is literally A PARK and they cant get it right? 

He's just lazy and doesn't bother to measure it until 7 am =\

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

In these ENSo threads, weve discussed some of the weird things that have occurred since the nino of 2015-16, so I thought Id share this.

Since the snowy blitz of 2007-15, winters have exhibited a very strange characteristic at Detroit. While Jan-Feb stays snowy, some wonky thinks have been happening on the fringe ends of the season.

The amount of times in a snow season recently that either November has had more snow than December, or April has had more snow than March, has been astounding.

2024-25: Apr snowier than Mar
2023-24: Nov snowier than Dec
2021-22: Nov snowier than Dec & Apr snowier than Mar
2020-21: Apr snowier than Mar
2019-20: Nov snowier than Dec & Apr snowier than Mar
2018-19: Nov snowier than Dec
2015-16: Nov snowier than Dec
2014-15: Nov snowier than Dec

and around here April has been colder than March

in 2020 May was snowier than most of our winter months lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

 

Cold neutral?

[bluewave]

This was the first time after such a strong El Niño that Nino 1+2 continued to run so warm like we are seeing now. It’s quite possible that it contributed to the unusually strong +PNA we experienced this winter. But since the WPAC was so warm the NPAC Jet continued to dominate. So a bit of a combo between Niña-like and Nino-like influences. A variation on the 23-24 theme with the record Nino ridge in Canada interacting with the Nina-like warm pool in the WPAC causing the ridge to push further into the East like we typically see with La Ninas. So these combo patterns have resulted in below normal snowfall both winters from Philly to Boston. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was the first time after such a strong El Niño that Nino 1+2 continued to run so warm like we are seeing now. It’s quite possible that it contributed to the unusually strong +PNA we experienced this winter. But since the WPAC was so warm the NPAC Jet continued to dominate. So a bit of a combo between Niña-like and Nino-like influences. A variation on the 23-24 theme with the record Nino ridge in Canada interacting with the Nina-like warm pool in the WPAC causing the ridge to push further into the East like we typically see with La Ninas. So these combo patterns have resulted in below normal snowfall both winters from Philly to Boston. 
 

 

Interesting....

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting....

Didn't we have this hybrid combo happen in the early 70s too?

 

[jm1220]

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

lol and that is wrong. Central Park would actually be a perfect area to measure snow. A park presents more of the "textbook definition" of a preferred area to measure snow (sheltered but open, less prone to drifting). Many airports snow observers (DTW included) are measuring snow at a nearby more "user friendly" site because of the difficulty modern airports can produce. Central Park is literally A PARK and they cant get it right? 

I’ve always thought they should measure at LGA since it’s a central site within the city roughly, and they seem to a better job than whatever crew at Central Park over years. There are numerous times it’s clear the Park undermeasured again but the media goes with “NYC got….” from there. LaGuardia in recent years has been more realistic. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This was the first time after such a strong El Niño that Nino 1+2 continued to run so warm like we are seeing now. It’s quite possible that it contributed to the unusually strong +PNA we experienced this winter. But since the WPAC was so warm the NPAC Jet continued to dominate. So a bit of a combo between Niña-like and Nino-like influences. A variation on the 23-24 theme with the record Nino ridge in Canada interacting with the Nina-like warm pool in the WPAC causing the ridge to push further into the East like we typically see with La Ninas. So these combo patterns have resulted in below normal snowfall both winters from Philly to Boston. 
 

 

Yep, I don’t expect any real change to our lousy winters here until the W PAC meaningfully changes-cools down. It’s clear it keeps fueling these ridiculous Pacific Jet patterns that ruin any snow setup we have one way or another. It’s really something how no matter what the setup is, there’s some turd in the punchbowl that ruins it. It originates from too much chaos and progressiveness in the pattern-too many S/Ws so nothing can amplify, or the ridge/trough in the wrong place so we get cutters, or the continent flooded in maritime air. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't we have this hybrid combo happen in the early 70s too?

 

1972-1973 was very similar to 2023-2024 in that respect, but obviously the latter, modern version was much warmer.

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’ve always thought they should measure at LGA since it’s a central site within the city roughly, and they seem to a better job than whatever crew at Central Park over years. There are numerous times it’s clear the Park undermeasured again but the media goes with “NYC got….” from there. LaGuardia in recent years has been more realistic. 

in our bigger storms JFK gets more snow too

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, I don’t expect any real change to our lousy winters here until the W PAC meaningfully changes-cools down. It’s clear it keeps fueling these ridiculous Pacific Jet patterns that ruin any snow setup we have one way or another. It’s really something how no matter what the setup is, there’s some turd in the punchbowl that ruins it. It originates from too much chaos and progressiveness in the pattern-too many S/Ws so nothing can amplify, or the ridge/trough in the wrong place so we get cutters, or the continent flooded in maritime air. 

what if the W Pac doesn't cool down but instead the E Pac starts to heat up at a more rapid rate, would that offset what's going on in the W Pac?

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting....

These combinations add an extra layer of complexity to what used to be more straightforward seasonal forecasts. So we get these competing influences which result in hybrid ENSO and PDO patterns.

December really set the tone of the winter with the very impressive +PNA combined with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. You can see the WPAC forcing getting stretched east of the Dateline with the the SST warmth in the EPAC to Caribbean which we don’t normally see during La Ninas which usually have stronger subsidence there.

So in effect we had competing marine heatwaves across the Pacific resulting in all these overlapping features. It makes it more challenging to get a clean ENSO and PDO response since the warm pools are in competing areas for the forcing to gravitate toward. 

 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

These combinations add an extra layer of complexity to what used to be more straightforward seasonal forecasts. So we get these competing influences which result in hybrid ENSO and PDO patterns.

December really set the tone of the winter with the very impressive +PNA combined with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. You can see the WPAC forcing getting stretched east of the Dateline with the the SST warmth in the EPAC to Caribbean which we don’t normally see during La Ninas which usually have stronger subsidence there.

So in effect we had competing marine heatwaves across the Pacific resulting in all these overlapping features. It makes it more challenging to get a clean ENSO and PDO response since the warm pools are in competing areas for the forcing to gravitate toward. 

 

 

 

 

 

For sure.....kicked my ass in 2023, I made some adjustments and was better this season, though far from perfect. The +PNA/cooler temps was a bit of a curveball, but I did not oversell snowfall this time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I did expect the marginal La Nina to evolve into a Modoki event, which worked out. 2008-2009 was the best ENSO analog IMO.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

what if the W Pac doesn't cool down but instead the E Pac starts to heat up at a more rapid rate, would that offset what's going on in the W Pac?

I’d think wherever the heat budget is the greatest, that’s what would drive the forcing and the pattern so if the marine heat waves shift around, the overall pattern likely would too. I agree that “cool down” is subjective in this warming climate. 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I did expect the marginal La Nina to evolve into a Modoki event, which worked out. 2008-2009 was the best ENSO analog IMO.

Even the colder winter worked out which was similar to 2008-09.  We also had the dry January with small snowfalls but long duration snowcover.  Too bad we didn't get the March 2009 analog, Ray!

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Even the colder winter worked out which was similar to 2008-09.  We also had the dry January with small snowfalls but long duration snowcover.  Too bad we didn't get the March 2009 analog, Ray!

Strictly ENSO.....I don't mean it was the best analog overall...

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Something shifted in the Pacific during the spring of 2023. We had the sudden appearance of record WWBs over the EPAC rather than closer to the Dateline as had been the way El Ninos kicked off in the old days. Then the tremendous record breaking Canadian Ridge in May which continued into the 23-24 winter. The +PNA this 24-25  winter seemed to be enhanced by the lingering Canadian ridging and EPAC forcing. This shift in the Pacific has coincided with the record and unexpected jump in global temperatures. Unfortunately, this was not forecast by any of the climate models we use. So we are probably just going to observe what happens next several months in the Pacific in regard to ENSO since we don’t have any prior experience with a shift like this. 
 

 

Seasonal models often are too biased towards default ENSO regimes.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I’ve always thought they should measure at LGA since it’s a central site within the city roughly, and they seem to a better job than whatever crew at Central Park over years. There are numerous times it’s clear the Park undermeasured again but the media goes with “NYC got….” from there. LaGuardia in recent years has been more realistic. 

Interesting. I feel that DTW is a good centralized spot for southeast Michigan (and not because I live close lol). The far northern suburbs with their slight tick in elevation are snowier and year-round colder than the rest of the region, and downtown Detroit and especially east of their is too marine influenced. But DTW is a perfect spot, and I feel that is what most NWS offices should do, pick the most "centralized" spot.

I always assumed that was central park, but if its LGA it should be LGA. Any mets from NYC post here? Why dont they question central parks measurements when they seem low? NWS has every right to do that (same as if it was too high).

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seasonal models often are too biased towards default ENSO regimes.

Pretty much every winter forecast that is supposed to be El Nino or La Nina has that same generic graphic of expected weather patterns in a Nino/Nina that spreads like wildfire on social media weather "forecasting" outlets.