2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The SSTs along the West Coast were the warmest on record during the 2014-2015 +PDO event. Those raw indices values you posted were only a small piece of the total event. As those raw indices can often miss the totality of events. Like we often see between the 500mb versions of the teleconnections and the surface pressure versions. My analysis involves a bigger picture view rather than the more narrowly defined approach that you are taking. 
 

 

 1. But the SSTs along the W coast are just a portion of the entire PDO calculation. Just looking at the W coast like you did seems more narrow to me.

2. The SSTs in 2014-5 being at the warmest on record (per what you said) aren’t surprising due to global warming. And again, the full PDO calculation also involves other areas.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 1. But the SSTs along the W coast are just a portion of the entire PDO calculation. Just looking at the W coast like you did seems more narrow to me.

2. The SSTs in 2014-5 being at the warmest on record (per what you said) aren’t surprising due to global warming. And again, the full PDO calculation also involves other areas.

Notice how wide the band of +PDO SST warming was from Mexico all the way to Alaska with the +PDO super El Niño event in 15-16.  It far surpassed anything we have ever seen from a +PDO and El Niño combo before.

The reason the raw index you posted was underdone was due to the much smaller cold pool to the west of the +PDO horseshoe. So the footprint of the historic +PDO was larger leading to the normally cold regions to the west being smaller.

This why the SST charts below are a better indicator of the strength of the event. As the raw index was too narrowly defined to capture the sheer volume of historic SST warmth near the coast. So we need to update the way we calculate these indices in a rapidly warming world with more extreme marine heatwaves.

We have seen this same process at work with the raw telconnections struggling to capture the totality of events which have more often been defined by the record 500mb heights. 

 

 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Notice how wide the band of +PDO SST warming was from Mexico all the way to Alaska with the +PDO super El Niño event in 15-16.  It far surpassed anything we have ever seen from a +PDO and El Niño combo before.

The reason the raw index you posted was underdone was due to the much smaller cold pool to the west of the +PDO horseshoe. So the footprint of the historic +PDO was larger leading to the normally cold regions to the west being smaller.

This why the SST charts below are a better indicator of the strength of the event. As the raw index was too narrowly defined to capture the sheer volume of historic SST warmth near the coast. So we need to update the way we calculate these indices in a rapidly warming world with more extreme marine heatwaves.

We have seen this same process at work with the raw telconnections struggling to capture the totality of events which have more often been defined by the record 500mb heights. 

 

 

Chris,

 Nice maps. But these maps for 2015-6 also reflect on the globe being warmer in general vs 1997-8 and 1982-3. So, that alone favors for 2015-6 both a larger above normal area off the W coast and a smaller, less intense area of below normal further offshore. It is as I assume you’d agree the contrast between those two main areas that determines the intensity of the +PDO rather than just the intensity of warmth just offshore the W coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris,

 Nice maps. But these maps for 2015-6 also reflect on the globe being warmer in general vs 1997-8 and 1982-3. So, that alone favors for 2015-6 both a larger above normal area off the W coast and a smaller, less intense area of below normal further offshore.

Yes, this is what I was getting at when I said that CC is in fact impacting the SST imprint for the modes of the PDO, but I stand by my assertion that the oscillstion/cycle/secular is no different.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this is what I was getting at when I said that CC is in fact impacting the SST imprint for the modes of the PDO, but I stand by my assertion that the oscillstion/cycle/secular is no different.

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks to some good conversation with @Stormchaserchuck1 I dove further into the ENSO data for Detroit. And its actually surprising to see how relatively close the different ENSO states are, sensible weather wise. I suspect if many of you look at your local data, you may also be surprised. I think one of things is we all look into some of those "token" years and assume all ENSOs of that magnitude will yield similar results, but when you look at the mean...yes there are differences, but the differences are not as cut and dry as those cookie-cutter "what to expect this winter" graphics noaa puts out every fall before an expected El Nino or La Nina winter. 

Strong El Ninos here, as expected, are by far the warmest and least snowy...and weak La Ninas are the wettest/snowiest. But weak El Ninos are surprisingly the coldest and driest. Neutral are generally the preferred winters (and it doesnt show in this data, but 2nd and 3rd year neutral is usually REALLY the best). But all of that noise aside, all of the data is FAR closer than I was expecting.

 

ALL El Ninos (27 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 27.9F
DJF precip avg: 6.07”
Season snow avg: 37.4”
1”+ snowcover avg: 44 days

ALL La Ninas (25 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 27.8F
DJF precip avg: 6.77”
Season snow avg: 44.9”
1”+ snowcover avg: 49 days

ALL Neutral years (23 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 26.6F
DJF precip avg: 6.66”
Season snow avg: 44.6” 
1”+ snowcover avg: 55 days

1950-2025 AVG (75 years)
DJF temp avg: 27.5F
DJF precip avg: 6.40”
Season snow avg: 41.5”
1”+ snowcover avg: 49 days
 

DIFFERENT EL NINO STRENGTHS

Strong El Ninos (9 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 30.7F 
DJF precip avg: 6.44”
Season snow avg: 29.9”
1”+ snowcover avg: 31 days

 

Moderate El Ninos (7 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 27.6F
DJF precip avg: 6.29”
Season snow avg: 42.3”
1”+ snowcover avg: 45 days

 

Weak El Ninos (11 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 25.8F
DJF precip avg: 5.63”
Season snow avg: 40.4”
1”+ snowcover avg: 55 days
 

DIFFERENT LA NINA STRENGTHS

Strong La Ninas (7 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 27.7F
DJF precip avg: 6.72”
Season snow avg: 49.2”
1”+ snowcover avg: 53 days
 

Moderate La Ninas (6 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 28.0F
DJF precip avg: 5.46”
Season snow avg: 37.7” 
1”+ snowcover avg: 40 days
 

Weak La Ninas (12 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 27.8F
DJF precip avg: 7.45”
Season snow avg: 46.0”
1”+ snowcover avg: 51 days