2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Natural Gas this month (April) has dropped from $4.10 to $2.94.. implies a warmer Winter next year, but a lot can change of course. 

Thanks. Indeed, it has dropped a lot this month. By the way, today’s weekly EIA storage increase of 88 bcf was very bearish vs the average prediction from industry experts of ~+67, which contributed to today’s drop.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Indeed, it has dropped a lot this month. By the way, today’s weekly EIA storage increase of 88 bcf was very bearish vs the average prediction from industry experts of ~+67, which contributed to today’s drop.

I actually deleted it, because I saw the December contract is still near $4.40.. which is pretty neutral, maybe leaning a little warm (I call under $5 warm, over $5 cool.. or at least under $5 favors +NAO, over $5 favors -NAO).  It's good to see all that's going on, so that you can sort of see how it specifically relates to weather. Thanks for posting. 

[snowman19]

IMO calling this past winter a La Nada/cold-neutral is absolutely ridiculous. ENSO was very clearly in La Niña mode, atmospherically and oceanically and if you adjust it for climate change, it was a solid weak La Niña winter. It just happened to be a late-bloomer event

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO calling this past winter a La Nada/cold-neutral is absolutely ridiculous. ENSO was very clearly in La Niña mode, atmospherically and oceanically and if you adjust it for climate change, it was a solid weak La Niña winter. It just happened to be a late-bloomer event

The storm track was actually a moderate to strong La Niña pattern with a very strong Southeast Ridge around the storm days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

IMO calling this past winter a La Nada/cold-neutral is absolutely ridiculous. ENSO was very clearly in La Niña mode, atmospherically and oceanically and if you adjust it for climate change, it was a solid weak La Niña winter. It just happened to be a late-bloomer event

 

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The storm track was actually a moderate to strong La Niña pattern with a very strong Southeast Ridge around the storm days.

Yes, I think assigning an intensity to ENSO using solely ONI has always been a rather crude practice, but CC has made it absolutely imperative to assume a more eclectic approach. ENSO is very complex and multifaceted, and a warming planet is only going to serve to make it more complex, as the essence of ENSO is an anomaly RELATIVE to the ambient ocean/atmsphere.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Yes, I think assigning an intensity to ENSO using solely ONI has always been a rather crude practice, but CC has made it absolutely imperative to assume a more eclectic approach. ENSO is very complex and multifaceted, and a warming planet is only going to serve to make it more complex, as the essence of ENSO is an anomaly RELATIVE to the ambient ocean/atmsphere.

Yeah, that’s what I was getting at with my post yesterday. This winter was another one with wildly varying competing influences. The overall 500mb pattern had a +PDO flavor with the 500mb low to the SW of the Aleutians and ridging over Western North America. But the storm track was in stark contrast to this type of pattern.

The first composite is the DJF 500 mb average pattern. The second one isolates the storm track. I selected the 11 days this winter when .25 and more precipitation fell in NYC. The average temperature on these days was 41.0° which was why the winter snowfall was well below average again at only 12.9”.

Also notice the Southeast Ridge linking up with the -AO and -NAO which has become a repeating theme during the 2020s. We can also see the very strong and extended Pacific Jet on the storm days from East Asia right across the U.S. So the dominant storm track had a very distinct La Niña pattern through the Great Lakes.

DJF average 500mb pattern

 

11 storm days for NYC with .25 and more of precipitation 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that’s what I was getting at with my post yesterday. This winter was another one with wildly varying competing influences. The overall 500mb pattern had a +PDO flavor with the 500mb low to the SW of the Aleutians and ridging over Western North America. But the storm track was in stark contrast to this type of pattern.

The first composite is the DJF 500 mb average pattern. The second one isolates the storm track. I selected the 11 days this winter when .25 and more precipitation fell in NYC. The average temperature on these days was 41.0° which was why the winter snowfall was well below average again at only 12.9”.

Also notice the Southeast Ridge linking up with the -AO and -NAO which has become a repeating theme during the 2020s. We can also see the very strong and extended Pacific Jet on the storm days from East Asia right across the U.S. So the dominant storm track had a very distinct La Niña pattern through the Great Lakes.

DJF average 500mb pattern

 

11 storm days for NYC with .25 and more of precipitation 

 

 

 

I think last season may have been a transition year out of the very hostile cold Pacific phase, so we saw some mixed elements, or "competing forces", as you articulated it. I have a feeling next year is pretty good, but far too early to hold me to that. I know you are skeptical and why....

[michsnowfreak]

On 4/23/2025 at 7:56 PM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Second or later year of ENSO neutral (since 1949-50) - PHL

1960-61 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 28.9F DJF; 49.1 in snow

1961-62 (3rd year of ENSO neutral): 30.5F DJF; 29.2 in snow

1962-63 (4th year of ENSO neutral): 28.3F DJF; 20.5 in snow

1967-68 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 32.6F DJF; 15.9 in snow

1981-82 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 31.2F DJF; 25.4 in snow

1993-94 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 33.0F DJF; 23.1 in snow

2013-14 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 33.0F DJF; 68 in snow

2014-15 (3rd year of ENSO neutral?): 32.6F DJF; 27 in snow

All much colder than normal. Most of the years produced near normal snowfall, with 2 of them (1960-61 and 2013-14) producing blockbuster seasons.

A very cold dataset here as well. The latter 4 winters were much harsher than the 1st 4 here, however. 1960s winters were often cold/dry here.

1960-61: 26.2F DJF (57th coldest of 152); 18.0” snow (136th snowiest of 145)

1961-62: 25.0F DJF (40th coldest of 152); 28.1” snow (115th snowiest of 145)

1962-63: 20.4F DJF (5th coldest of 152); 29.7” snow (110th snowiest of 145)

1967-68: 25.4F DJF (46th coldest of 152); 30.6” snow (105th snowiest of 145)

1981-82: 21.9F DJF (16th coldest of 152); 74.0” snow (4th snowiest of 145)

1993-94: 23.9F DJF (30th coldest of 152); 45.8” snow (46th snowiest of 145)

2013-14: 20.9F DJF (8th coldest of 152); 94.9” snow (1st snowiest of 145)

2014-15: 23.3F DJF (20th coldest of 152); 47.5” snow (41st snowiest of 145)
 

Of those 8 winters:

1960-61 had below avg snowcover

1967-68 & 1993-94 had near avg snowcover

1961-62, 1962-63, 1981-82, 2013-14, & 2014-15 had WELL above avg snowcover

 

[LibertyBell]

On 4/23/2025 at 12:38 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Even in our country, a mere speck on the globe, patterns are absolutely not the same from one place to another. I do not agree with bluewaves generalizations simply because you cannot predict the future, period. As he is familiar with NYC more than I am, Im not going to go into detail about anything, but i feel some of these assertions as about low snow winters of the past vs low snow winters today, or why there was heavy snow last decade, etc etc are a bit of a stretch. The coldest period of NYC's climate record would still be a super mild winter by todays standards in Detroit, and again, look on a globe and see how close the two are. NYC is not going from some winter paradise to the tropics.

I also feel that the feast/famine approach has always applied to the east coast, even if its more extreme now. But its interesting to see that you are seeing that more in new england as well, as I have not really seen that here, and our temperatures are likely quite similar. Despite all the microclimates and nuances, I stand by the fact that from a pure snowfall perspective, anyone north of 40N is sitting pretty in a climate when winter precipitation on average is increasing yet it is still plenty cold for months to see fun snow times.

if anything it's more concerning in the Alps where it doesn't even snow anymore and they are facing the very real consequences of not having a source of fresh water.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The storm track was actually a moderate to strong La Niña pattern with a very strong Southeast Ridge around the storm days.

isn't this more dependent on the NAO? we just do not get negative NAO in the winter anymore, it's a spring thing now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

isn't this more dependent on the NAO? we just do not get negative NAO in the winter anymore, it's a spring thing now.

That's what @Stormchaserchuck1 said....that should change to an extent as we near the solar min in a few years.

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

isn't this more dependent on the NAO? we just do not get negative NAO in the winter anymore, it's a spring thing now.

And even moreso -NAO on average has been a summer thing 2007-2023:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

And even moreso -NAO on average has been a summer thing 2007-2023:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Even the summers between 2010-2013 Larry? Those were really hot here.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's what @Stormchaserchuck1 said....that should change as we near the solar min in a few years.

This is a good reason to expect better winters going forward, Ray.

Maybe we bottomed out the last 3 years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is a good reason to expect better winters going forward, Ray.

Maybe we bottomed out the last 3 years.

We definitely have.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

isn't this more dependent on the NAO? we just do not get negative NAO in the winter anymore, it's a spring thing now.

The composite I posted was both -NAO and -AO at 500 mb as the ridge extended from Baffin Island all the way over to Iceland. So the -AO and -NAO were interchangeable at 500mb on the storm days.

The -NAO has linked up with the Southeast Ridge just as much as the -AO. So the recent differences between the indices are more surface pressure related rather than at 500mb where the linkage with the subtropical ridge while the indices were negative has been occurring.

March 2023 was the most negative -NAO cold season month in recent years. And the Southeast Ridge had no trouble linking up with the -NAO block that month for the big rainstorm along the coast and interior high elevation snowstorm.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

2023  3  1 -0.956
2023  3  2 -1.006
2023  3  3 -1.093
2023  3  4 -1.161
2023  3  5 -1.109
2023  3  6 -1.132
2023  3  7 -1.187
2023  3  8 -1.091
2023  3  9 -0.614
2023  3 10 -0.356
2023  3 11 -0.293
2023  3 12 -0.254
2023  3 13 -0.111
2023  3 14 -0.007

[PhiEaglesfan712]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

The composite I posted was both -NAO and -AO at 500 mb as the ridge extended from Baffin Island all the way over to Iceland. So the -AO and -NAO were interchangeable at 500mb on the storm days.

The -NAO has linked up with the Southeast Ridge just as much as the -AO. So the recent differences between the indices are more surface pressure related rather than at 500mb where the linkage with the subtropical ridge while the indices were negative has been occurring.

March 2023 was the most negative -NAO cold season month in recent years. And the Southeast Ridge had no trouble linking up with the -NAO block that month for the big rainstorm along the coast and interior high elevation snowstorm.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

2023  3  1 -0.956
2023  3  2 -1.006
2023  3  3 -1.093
2023  3  4 -1.161
2023  3  5 -1.109
2023  3  6 -1.132
2023  3  7 -1.187
2023  3  8 -1.091
2023  3  9 -0.614
2023  3 10 -0.356
2023  3 11 -0.293
2023  3 12 -0.254
2023  3 13 -0.111
2023  3 14 -0.007

This happened too late to help the mid-Atlantic region. We didn't really see the full effects of this until May/June, which was the coldest in my area since 1985. If only this happened a few months earlier...

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think last season may have been a transition year out of the very hostile cold Pacific phase, so we saw some mixed elements, or "competing forces", as you articulated it. I have a feeling next year is pretty good, but far too early to hold me to that. I know you are skeptical and why....

My early guess for next winter is that it’s going to be warmer than this past winter was from Philly to Boston. This is based on past La Niña +PNA mismatches and what happened in the seasons around them.

The previous La Niñas with strong +PNA in either December or January were 95-96, 00-01, 10-11, 17-18 and 20-21.  The 96-97 and 01-02 winters were milder than the preceding ones. Same went for 11-12 which was warmer than 10-11. 

16-17 came before the 17-18 mismatch but I thinks it’s informative of the same general background conditions. We haven’t had a back to back La Niña or a back to back La Niña and a neutral around one of these +PNA mismatches years that were as cold as the first years was. There is always one year in a grouping of La Niñas or La Niña and neutral which is colder than the previous one.

21-22 followed the 20-21 mismatch year with December featuring record warmth in many areas. The MJO 8 in January made January the sole colder and snowier month in a sea of warm that winter. It’s tough to get a two colder La Ninas in a row or a colder neutral following a colder La Niña. But will hold out some hope of at least one decent winter month next winter should we see a 21-22 type mirroring or weak echo.

As always, I will wait until we see what the early MJO indicator does in October. This past October we got the strong signal which lead to the +PNA mismatch in December and  January which I discussed last October. We haven’t had two in a row before. But you never know if we can get a first time. So I will wait until after October for my 2nd winter guess. 

Was hoping a few weeks ago that the system could tilt more into El Niño. But this too never happened so soon before going back to at least 1950 following such a strong El Niño. So the EPAC warming still hasn’t become connected to the subsurface further west. And we just saw how the increase in surface winds cooled Nino 1+2. But I still want to see how the summer into fall goes before making a final ENSO call for next winter.

Obviously, we saw how the neutral to weak El Niño in 18-19 couldn’t overcome the stronger La Niña background warm pool in the WPAC. So 18-19 had more elements of a La Niña following the 17-18 La Niña mismatch.