2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s possible that with a bump up over a year or two that the bolded mean may rise off these levels in another 7 years. But my guess is that the reversion will ultimately settle below what we had as a mean when the climate was colder. It’s challenging to get a mean at the level when things were colder since we were able to nickel and dime our way to average between the early 60s to 90s when it was colder. This winter was a nickel and dime special that finished well below average. That was a benefit of a colder climate. More options to get to average or higher.

Entirely possible. Please don't mistake my tone for dismissiveness, as I am open to the idea, but just don't feel its a forgone conclusion yet. Of course that is more likely the further south one travels...

[bluewave]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Entirely possible. Please don't mistake my tone for dismissiveness, as I am open to the idea, but just don't feel its a forgone conclusion yet. Of course that is more likely the further south one travels...

I don’t take it that way. I really enjoy the back and forth here. This format is really great as it allows for the expansion of ideas and extended conversations. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t take it that way. I really enjoy the back and forth here. This format is really great as it allows for the expansion of ideas and extended conversations. 

I am open to the concept esstentially anywhere below the latitude of about Manchester, NH...however, from about Manchester points northward, they really haven't been struggling as much during this drought period. Its a viable possibility for CNE and SNE, but we clearly aren't there yet in NNE IMHO.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am open to the concept esstentially anywhere below the latitude of about Manchester, NH...however, from about Manchester points northward, they really haven't been struggling as much during this drought period. Its a viable possibility for CNE and SNE, but we clearly aren't there yet in NNE IMHO.

If anything your snowfall should go up with added moisture as locations further south see their snowfall go down.  We saw this in the DC vs NYC trend back in the early 2000s (it's so strange to say that lol.)

 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am open to the concept esstentially anywhere below the latitude of about Manchester, NH...however, from about Manchester points northward, they really haven't been struggling as much during this drought period. Its a viable possibility for CNE and SNE, but we clearly aren't there yet in NNE IMHO.

My focus has mostly been along the coastal corridor from around Philly to Boston. As gaining some elevation in the regions you mentioned has been a big plus in recent years. As we were reminded with the March 2023 snowstorm.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My focus has mostly been along the coastal corridor from around Philly to Boston. As gaining some elevation in the regions you mentioned has been a big plus in recent years. As we were reminded with the March 2023 snowstorm.

Places like Portland are likely to see their snowfall increase for a few decades.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If anything your snowfall should go up with added moisture as locations further south see their snowfall go down.  We saw this in the DC vs NYC trend back in the early 2000s (it's so strange to say that lol.)

 

Eh...I think the increase is probably north of me, or at least further inland/elevated. I don't think my snowfall on the interior CP of northern Mass is going to go up verses the longer term climo. Maybe the increased moisture and warmer temps cancel out, as opposed to even further south along the CP....

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can fathom the higher terrain of the Worcester hills and Berkshires, up into NNE seeing an increase, but I think I am too far south/close to the coast. Hopefully I can break even with a more feast or famine distribution moving forward.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Entirely possible. Please don't mistake my tone for dismissiveness, as I am open to the idea, but just don't feel its a forgone conclusion yet. Of course that is more likely the further south one travels...

It is location dependent too, even around here.  The past 7 years, in the central nj area 15 miles west of Rutgers University, I am:

a tick below ave

Well below

Way above

66% of av

way below

Ave

66% of ave.

Those 7 years are a hair over 23" average for me and I average 29".  So yes, it has been below average.  But next year if we happen to get a nice winter, I can be right near average again for the past 8 years.  His 7 year thing is so cherry picked it is laughable.  The prior 7 year to that I averaged 11" above average.  If I combine the 14 years, I am above average overall.  Somehow the last 7 years are the new norm, but the 7 years prior to that just get tossed. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It is location dependent too, even around here.  The past 7 years, in the central nj area 15 miles west of Rutgers University, I am:

a tick below ave

Well below

Way above

66% of av

way below

Ave

66% of ave.

Those 7 years are a hair over 23" average for me and I average 29".  So yes, it has been below average.  But next year if we happen to get a nice winter, I can be right near average again for the past 8 years.  His 7 year thing is so cherry picked it is laughable.  The prior 7 year to that I averaged 11" above average.  If I combine the 14 years, I am above average overall.  Somehow the last 7 years are the new norm, but the 7 years prior to that just get tossed. 

 

 

Yea, my area has had a lot of bad luck even relative to the general drought.

[CP_WinterStorm]

19 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

FWIW, here is the one from April 2013: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/archive/201304/QuickLook.html

Almost eerily similar to what we have currently. The fact that almost everything is lining up perfectly with 2013 makes me feel really optimistic 2025-26 is going to be a cold and very snowy winter. Even the PAC jet is returning to a favorable setup.

Interesting you point that out. This time of year I start periodically checking the hurricane season analogs from Tropical Tidbits, and at the moment the top analog is 2013:

'

Of course things will change, but there's definitely a nod towards 2013 right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

FWIW, here is the one from April 2013: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/archive/201304/QuickLook.html

Almost eerily similar to what we have currently. The fact that almost everything is lining up perfectly with 2013 makes me feel really optimistic 2025-26 is going to be a cold and very snowy winter. Even the PAC jet is returning to a favorable setup.

Not sure @bluewavewould agree...

[GaWx]

 Yesterday, JB was already strongly hinting at a cold winter in the NE US and Midwest based on his expectation of it being the 2nd La Nada winter in a row. I follow his methodology, which is clearly explained. His analog 2nd year La Nada winters are 1960-1, 1967-8, 1990-1, 1993-4, and 2013-4. However, there are flaws in what he presented.

-Even though 2024-5 was officially (i.e., per ONI) La Nada, it unlike his other 1st year La Nada winters in the dataset was clearly La Niña  per RONI (it dipped all of the way to moderate Niña),which I think is more relevant. So, that disqualifies 2025-6 as potentially being a 2nd year La Nada from my perspective.

-Somehow he left off the pretty cold winter of 1981-2, which clearly was a 2nd year La Nada per both ONI and RONI.

-He included 1993-4. Although he’s right that that qualifies per ONI as a 2nd year La Nada, I’d exclude it because 1992-3 was a weak El Niño per RONI.

-The biggest problem imho is that he uses 1991-2020, the warmest climo at the website, for his base climo for the entire dataset. That makes his analog map too cold considering that 1960-1 and 1967-8 shouldn't be using 1991-2020 as climo. Also, 1990-1 should use 1981-2010 for its climo. Even 1993-4, which I said I wouldn’t even include in the set, could arguably also more appropriately use 1981-2010 for its climo as 1993-4 is in the middle of that period. If it were me, I’d use 1951-2010 from the website’s choices for all of the years for the best balance rather than 1991-2020.

 So, this is JB’s map to try to predict 2025-6: centered near a quite cold -4 in NE/Midwest

 

However, if I were to do it myself by accepting 2025-6 as a potential 2nd year La Nada winter, I’d get it centered near -2 for the NE/Midwest instead of -4: still chilly no doubt but with only half the anomaly that JB’s map has:

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree regarding the growing feast or famine distributuon of the snowfall, but at least at this latitude, talk to me in 7 years regarding the bolded.

Even in our country, a mere speck on the globe, patterns are absolutely not the same from one place to another. I do not agree with bluewaves generalizations simply because you cannot predict the future, period. As he is familiar with NYC more than I am, Im not going to go into detail about anything, but i feel some of these assertions as about low snow winters of the past vs low snow winters today, or why there was heavy snow last decade, etc etc are a bit of a stretch. The coldest period of NYC's climate record would still be a super mild winter by todays standards in Detroit, and again, look on a globe and see how close the two are. NYC is not going from some winter paradise to the tropics.

I also feel that the feast/famine approach has always applied to the east coast, even if its more extreme now. But its interesting to see that you are seeing that more in new england as well, as I have not really seen that here, and our temperatures are likely quite similar. Despite all the microclimates and nuances, I stand by the fact that from a pure snowfall perspective, anyone north of 40N is sitting pretty in a climate when winter precipitation on average is increasing yet it is still plenty cold for months to see fun snow times.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Yesterday, JB was already strongly hinting at a cold winter in the NE US and Midwest based on his expectation of it being the 2nd La Nada winter in a row. I follow his logic, which is clearly explained.

Why is Neutral after neutral cold? What's the logical reasoning behind this? 5 years in a sample set is too small to make conclusions, and when something is "neutral" that just means "normal" or "average climo signal". 

I want to go back to how all "Weak La Nina's" were cold going back 1950-2000. I remember everyone used to root on Weak Nina because it was a cold Winter map. Then we had 5 warm Weak Nina's in a row in the 2000s...

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Why is Neutral after neutral cold? What's the logical reasoning behind this? 5 years in a sample set is too small to make conclusions, and when something is "neutral" that just means "normal" or "average climo signal". 

I want to go back to how all "Weak La Nina's" were cold going back 1950-2000. I remember everyone used to root on Weak Nina because it was a cold Winter map. Then we had 5 warm Weak Nina's in a row in the 2000s...

I worded that poorly. I should have said I followed his methodology. I just edited my original post.

 Yes, five is a small dataset. And of the 5, 1990-1 was mild. It’s easy to guess that JB is showing this because of his seemingly ever-present desire to forecast a cold NE US winter.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Second or later year of ENSO neutral (since 1949-50) - PHL

1960-61 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 28.9F DJF; 49.1 in snow

1961-62 (3rd year of ENSO neutral): 30.5F DJF; 29.2 in snow

1962-63 (4th year of ENSO neutral): 28.3F DJF; 20.5 in snow

1967-68 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 32.6F DJF; 15.9 in snow

1981-82 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 31.2F DJF; 25.4 in snow

1993-94 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 33.0F DJF; 23.1 in snow

2013-14 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 33.0F DJF; 68 in snow

2014-15 (3rd year of ENSO neutral?): 32.6F DJF; 27 in snow

All much colder than normal. Most of the years produced near normal snowfall, with 2 of them (1960-61 and 2013-14) producing blockbuster seasons.

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Second or later year of ENSO neutral (since 1949-50) - PHL

1960-61 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 28.9F DJF; 49.1 in snow

1961-62 (3rd year of ENSO neutral): 30.5F DJF; 29.2 in snow

1962-63 (4th year of ENSO neutral): 28.3F DJF; 20.5 in snow

1967-68 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 32.6F DJF; 15.9 in snow

1981-82 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 31.2F DJF; 25.4 in snow

1993-94 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 33.0F DJF; 23.1 in snow

2013-14 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 33.0F DJF; 68 in snow

2014-15 (3rd year of ENSO neutral?): 32.6F DJF; 27 in snow

All much colder than normal. Most of the years produced near normal snowfall, with 2 of them (1960-61 and 2013-14) producing blockbuster seasons.

-Don’t forget 1990-1.

-I agree that 2014-5 is a 3rd year La Nada based on RONI even though the ONI is weak El Nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I worded that poorly. I should have said I followed his methodology. I just edited my original post.

 Yes, five is a small dataset. And of the 5, 1990-1 was mild. It’s easy to guess that JB is showing this because of his seemingly ever-present desire to forecast a cold NE US winter.

I don't mean to sound grumpy or anything, I just don't think there's any science behind it. I remember the days when scientific reasons were given ahead of an analog composite, so that the analogs 2nd'd the point. I think Ray (40/70) still proceeds like that. 

[chubbs]

This 2013 paper on snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere is on track so far. Snow is expected to be a lagging indicator of climate change due to offsetting effects of precipitation and temperature and natural variability. Have to be well up in Canada, with average winter temps of -10C, to see a  net snowfall benefit from warming. Further south, downward snowfall trends will emerge slowly as the Century progresses. Two steps down and one up kind of thing.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/20/jcli-d-12-00832.1.xml

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Yesterday, JB was already strongly hinting at a cold winter in the NE US and Midwest based on his expectation of it being the 2nd La Nada winter in a row. I follow his methodology, which is clearly explained. His analog 2nd year La Nada winters are 1960-1, 1967-8, 1990-1, 1993-4, and 2013-4. However, there are flaws in what he presented.

-Even though 2024-5 was officially (i.e., per ONI) La Nada, it unlike his other 1st year La Nada winters in the dataset was clearly La Niña  per RONI (it dipped all of the way to moderate Niña),which I think is more relevant. So, that disqualifies 2025-6 as potentially being a 2nd year La Nada from my perspective.

-Somehow he left off the pretty cold winter of 1981-2, which clearly was a 2nd year La Nada per both ONI and RONI.

-He included 1993-4. Although he’s right that that qualifies per ONI as a 2nd year La Nada, I’d exclude it because 1992-3 was a weak El Niño per RONI.

-The biggest problem imho is that he uses 1991-2020, the warmest climo at the website, for his base climo for the entire dataset. That makes his analog map too cold considering that 1960-1 and 1967-8 shouldn't be using 1991-2020 as climo. Also, 1990-1 should use 1981-2010 for its climo. Even 1993-4, which I said I wouldn’t even include in the set, could arguably also more appropriately use 1981-2010 for its climo as 1993-4 is in the middle of that period. If it were me, I’d use 1951-2010 from the website’s choices for all of the years for the best balance rather than 1991-2020.

 So, this is JB’s map to try to predict 2025-6: centered near a quite cold -4 in NE/Midwest

 

However, if I were to do it myself by accepting 2025-6 as a potential 2nd year La Nada winter, I’d get it centered near -2 for the NE/Midwest instead of -4: still chilly no doubt but with only half the anomaly that JB’s map has:

1990-1991 wasn't even a cold winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Even in our country, a mere speck on the globe, patterns are absolutely not the same from one place to another. I do not agree with bluewaves generalizations simply because you cannot predict the future, period. As he is familiar with NYC more than I am, Im not going to go into detail about anything, but i feel some of these assertions as about low snow winters of the past vs low snow winters today, or why there was heavy snow last decade, etc etc are a bit of a stretch. The coldest period of NYC's climate record would still be a super mild winter by todays standards in Detroit, and again, look on a globe and see how close the two are. NYC is not going from some winter paradise to the tropics.

I also feel that the feast/famine approach has always applied to the east coast, even if its more extreme now. But its interesting to see that you are seeing that more in new england as well, as I have not really seen that here, and our temperatures are likely quite similar. Despite all the microclimates and nuances, I stand by the fact that from a pure snowfall perspective, anyone north of 40N is sitting pretty in a climate when winter precipitation on average is increasing yet it is still plenty cold for months to see fun snow times.

Well, you have been west of the predominate storm track that past severeal years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Why is Neutral after neutral cold? What's the logical reasoning behind this? 5 years in a sample set is too small to make conclusions, and when something is "neutral" that just means "normal" or "average climo signal". 

I want to go back to how all "Weak La Nina's" were cold going back 1950-2000. I remember everyone used to root on Weak Nina because it was a cold Winter map. Then we had 5 warm Weak Nina's in a row in the 2000s...

Weaker ENSO is coldest because it affords more opportunity for a colder outcome due to the increased reliance on extra tropical forces, but they absolutely can be warm...its more of an issue of how UNLIKELY very strong ENSO regimes are to be cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't mean to sound grumpy or anything, I just don't think there's any science behind it. I remember the days when scientific reasons were given ahead of an analog composite, so that the analogs 2nd'd the point. I think Ray (40/70) still proceeds like that. 

I do, although sometimes I will reference a more anecdotal note such as a "triple dip la Nina" composite, etc....I remember I lead with that for the 2021-2022 season, but its by no means the basis of the forecast...that would be silly.

Agreed. I include that more for just "$hits and giggles"....but I will refer back to it my seasonal work leads to a similar result.

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1990-1991 wasn't even a cold winter.

I realize that. 1990-1 was quite mild. I even mentioned that in my subsequent post. He had no choice but to include it. But that doesn’t stop the 5 winter average from being quite cold (~-4). If the 5 winter average had not been cold, I seriously doubt that he would have even posted about the 2nd year La Nada analog so far in advance of next winter. His biggest problem is using 1991-2020 as climo for all 5. That makes these analogs average a solid cold -4, which is deceptive. It’s more like -2 using a more appropriate climo base as I said in the post you quoted.

[George001]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Yesterday, JB was already strongly hinting at a cold winter in the NE US and Midwest based on his expectation of it being the 2nd La Nada winter in a row. I follow his methodology, which is clearly explained. His analog 2nd year La Nada winters are 1960-1, 1967-8, 1990-1, 1993-4, and 2013-4. However, there are flaws in what he presented.

-Even though 2024-5 was officially (i.e., per ONI) La Nada, it unlike his other 1st year La Nada winters in the dataset was clearly La Niña  per RONI (it dipped all of the way to moderate Niña),which I think is more relevant. So, that disqualifies 2025-6 as potentially being a 2nd year La Nada from my perspective.

-Somehow he left off the pretty cold winter of 1981-2, which clearly was a 2nd year La Nada per both ONI and RONI.

-He included 1993-4. Although he’s right that that qualifies per ONI as a 2nd year La Nada, I’d exclude it because 1992-3 was a weak El Niño per RONI.

-The biggest problem imho is that he uses 1991-2020, the warmest climo at the website, for his base climo for the entire dataset. That makes his analog map too cold considering that 1960-1 and 1967-8 shouldn't be using 1991-2020 as climo. Also, 1990-1 should use 1981-2010 for its climo. Even 1993-4, which I said I wouldn’t even include in the set, could arguably also more appropriately use 1981-2010 for its climo as 1993-4 is in the middle of that period. If it were me, I’d use 1951-2010 from the website’s choices for all of the years for the best balance rather than 1991-2020.

 So, this is JB’s map to try to predict 2025-6: centered near a quite cold -4 in NE/Midwest

 

However, if I were to do it myself by accepting 2025-6 as a potential 2nd year La Nada winter, I’d get it centered near -2 for the NE/Midwest instead of -4: still chilly no doubt but with only half the anomaly that JB’s map has:

I disagree with his methodology. Even if he is right, it won’t be because of a 2nd la nada winter in a row. Basing a winter forecast strictly off ENSO is already dubious to begin with, when ENSO is that weak it is a better idea to rely on other things. Also, like Chuck said the sample size is way too small. Personally, I haven’t even began to narrow down my analog years yet. I just think it is way too early.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I disagree with his methodology. Even if he is right, it won’t be because of a 2nd la nada winter in a row. Basing a winter forecast strictly off ENSO is already dubious to begin with, when ENSO is that weak it is a better idea to rely on other things. Also, like Chuck said the sample size is way too small. Personally, I haven’t even began to narrow down my analog years yet. I just think it is way too early.

The Western Pacific has been having a larger influence over our sensible weather since 18-19 than ENSO which is a Central and Eastern Pacific phenomenon.

We saw in 18-19 how the WP La Niña background state overpowered the weak El Niño influence. Then in 19-20 the record IOD reversal near the Maritime Continent combined with the strong SPV to essentially erase a weak El Niño Modoki SST signature pattern.

20-21 featured a strong La Niña +PNA mismatch which went against typical La Nina climatology. Then in 21-22 we had the record MJO over the WPAC warm pool drive the record December warmth and +13 at DFW. We lucked out in January 22 as we got a clean MJO 8 which was the last  really snowy month experienced from ACY to ISP and BOS. But south of New England the snowfall shut off again in February 22

22-23 featured the strong marine heatwave east of Japan which combined with the La Niña and warm Maritime Continent MJO phases for record warmth and lack of snow. This overpowered the near record December -AO for a La Ninas which featured very snowy outcomes during past instances. The repeating -AO and -NAO March was also overpowered along the coastal plain. As the Southeast Ridge link up with the -AO has become a reoccurring theme during the 2020s. 

23-24 had the borderline super El Niño with record WP MJO 4-6 activity which muted the typical El Niño trough normally experienced over the Mid-Atlantic region. So this allowed the typical Canadian El Nino Ridge to expand into the Eastern US. 

24-25 saw the La Nina mismatch +PNA which I pointed out with the early MJO indicator last October. So this feature going against the typical La Nina response was a big player. But the continuing marine heatwave near Japan and very strong Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet muted the +PNA and -EPO influence. So we had an opposite response in terms of temperature and snowfall to 13-14 especially with the record ridging in Eastern Canada which had the deep cold vortex in 13-14.

So the ENSO has been getting tempered more and more by the record marine heatwaves and forcing west of the Dateline. But it still has been having an input in the climate system. It’s the new ENSO interaction with the WPAC which has been driving our sensible weather. 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I disagree with his methodology. Even if he is right, it won’t be because of a 2nd la nada winter in a row. Basing a winter forecast strictly off ENSO is already dubious to begin with, when ENSO is that weak it is a better idea to rely on other things. Also, like Chuck said the sample size is way too small. Personally, I haven’t even began to narrow down my analog years yet. I just think it is way too early.

I know it's way too early, but 2013-14 is the one year that stands out as the best analog wrt QBO, PMM, PDO, still elevated solar/geomag activity, etc. The last piece in the puzzle is the WPAC jet. If we can get that back to the favorable state that we had 2009 and 2013 (that storm a few weeks ago is the first promising step), then I really like our chances at our first blockbuster winter since prior to the mid-2010s super el nino.