2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s possible that with a bump up over a year or two that the bolded mean may rise off these levels in another 7 years. But my guess is that the reversion will ultimately settle below what we had as a mean when the climate was colder. It’s challenging to get a mean at the level when things were colder since we were able to nickel and dime our way to average between the early 60s to 90s when it was colder. This winter was a nickel and dime special that finished well below average. That was a benefit of a colder climate. More options to get to average or higher.

Entirely possible. Please don't mistake my tone for dismissiveness, as I am open to the idea, but just don't feel its a forgone conclusion yet. Of course that is more likely the further south one travels...

[bluewave]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Entirely possible. Please don't mistake my tone for dismissiveness, as I am open to the idea, but just don't feel its a forgone conclusion yet. Of course that is more likely the further south one travels...

I don’t take it that way. I really enjoy the back and forth here. This format is really great as it allows for the expansion of ideas and extended conversations. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t take it that way. I really enjoy the back and forth here. This format is really great as it allows for the expansion of ideas and extended conversations. 

I am open to the concept esstentially anywhere below the latitude of about Manchester, NH...however, from about Manchester points northward, they really haven't been struggling as much during this drought period. Its a viable possibility for CNE and SNE, but we clearly aren't there yet in NNE IMHO.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am open to the concept esstentially anywhere below the latitude of about Manchester, NH...however, from about Manchester points northward, they really haven't been struggling as much during this drought period. Its a viable possibility for CNE and SNE, but we clearly aren't there yet in NNE IMHO.

If anything your snowfall should go up with added moisture as locations further south see their snowfall go down.  We saw this in the DC vs NYC trend back in the early 2000s (it's so strange to say that lol.)

 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am open to the concept esstentially anywhere below the latitude of about Manchester, NH...however, from about Manchester points northward, they really haven't been struggling as much during this drought period. Its a viable possibility for CNE and SNE, but we clearly aren't there yet in NNE IMHO.

My focus has mostly been along the coastal corridor from around Philly to Boston. As gaining some elevation in the regions you mentioned has been a big plus in recent years. As we were reminded with the March 2023 snowstorm.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My focus has mostly been along the coastal corridor from around Philly to Boston. As gaining some elevation in the regions you mentioned has been a big plus in recent years. As we were reminded with the March 2023 snowstorm.

Places like Portland are likely to see their snowfall increase for a few decades.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If anything your snowfall should go up with added moisture as locations further south see their snowfall go down.  We saw this in the DC vs NYC trend back in the early 2000s (it's so strange to say that lol.)

 

Eh...I think the increase is probably north of me, or at least further inland/elevated. I don't think my snowfall on the interior CP of northern Mass is going to go up verses the longer term climo. Maybe the increased moisture and warmer temps cancel out, as opposed to even further south along the CP....

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can fathom the higher terrain of the Worcester hills and Berkshires, up into NNE seeing an increase, but I think I am too far south/close to the coast. Hopefully I can break even with a more feast or famine distribution moving forward.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Entirely possible. Please don't mistake my tone for dismissiveness, as I am open to the idea, but just don't feel its a forgone conclusion yet. Of course that is more likely the further south one travels...

It is location dependent too, even around here.  The past 7 years, in the central nj area 15 miles west of Rutgers University, I am:

a tick below ave

Well below

Way above

66% of av

way below

Ave

66% of ave.

Those 7 years are a hair over 23" average for me and I average 29".  So yes, it has been below average.  But next year if we happen to get a nice winter, I can be right near average again for the past 8 years.  His 7 year thing is so cherry picked it is laughable.  The prior 7 year to that I averaged 11" above average.  If I combine the 14 years, I am above average overall.  Somehow the last 7 years are the new norm, but the 7 years prior to that just get tossed. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It is location dependent too, even around here.  The past 7 years, in the central nj area 15 miles west of Rutgers University, I am:

a tick below ave

Well below

Way above

66% of av

way below

Ave

66% of ave.

Those 7 years are a hair over 23" average for me and I average 29".  So yes, it has been below average.  But next year if we happen to get a nice winter, I can be right near average again for the past 8 years.  His 7 year thing is so cherry picked it is laughable.  The prior 7 year to that I averaged 11" above average.  If I combine the 14 years, I am above average overall.  Somehow the last 7 years are the new norm, but the 7 years prior to that just get tossed. 

 

 

Yea, my area has had a lot of bad luck even relative to the general drought.

[CP_WinterStorm]

19 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

FWIW, here is the one from April 2013: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/archive/201304/QuickLook.html

Almost eerily similar to what we have currently. The fact that almost everything is lining up perfectly with 2013 makes me feel really optimistic 2025-26 is going to be a cold and very snowy winter. Even the PAC jet is returning to a favorable setup.

Interesting you point that out. This time of year I start periodically checking the hurricane season analogs from Tropical Tidbits, and at the moment the top analog is 2013:

'

Of course things will change, but there's definitely a nod towards 2013 right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

FWIW, here is the one from April 2013: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/archive/201304/QuickLook.html

Almost eerily similar to what we have currently. The fact that almost everything is lining up perfectly with 2013 makes me feel really optimistic 2025-26 is going to be a cold and very snowy winter. Even the PAC jet is returning to a favorable setup.

Not sure @bluewavewould agree...

[GaWx]

 Yesterday, JB was already strongly hinting at a cold winter in the NE US and Midwest based on his expectation of it being the 2nd La Nada winter in a row. I follow his logic, which is clearly explained. His analog 2nd year La Nada winters are 1960-1, 1967-8, 1990-1, 1993-4, and 2013-4. However, there are flaws in what he presented.

-Even though 2024-5 was officially (i.e., per ONI) La Nada, it unlike his other 1st year La Nada winters in the dataset was clearly La Niña  per RONI (it dipped all of the way to moderate Niña),which I think is more relevant. So, that disqualifies 2025-6 as potentially being a 2nd year La Nada from my perspective.

-Somehow he left off the pretty cold winter of 1981-2, which clearly was a 2nd year La Nada per both ONI and RONI.

-He included 1993-4. Although he’s right that that qualifies per ONI as a 2nd year La Nada, I’d exclude it because 1992-3 was a weak El Niño per RONI.

-The biggest problem imho is that he uses 1991-2020, the warmest climo at the website, for his base climo for the entire dataset. That makes his analog map too cold considering that 1960-1 and 1967-8 shouldn't be using 1991-2020 as climo. Also, 1990-1 should use 1981-2010 for its climo. Even 1993-4, which I said I wouldn’t even include in the set, could arguably also more appropriately use 1981-2010 for its climo as 1993-4 is in the middle of that period. If it were me, I’d use 1951-2010 from the website’s choices for all of the years for the best balance rather than 1991-2020.

 So, this is JB’s map to try to predict 2025-6: centered near a quite cold -4 in NE/Midwest

 

However, if I were to do it myself by accepting 2025-6 as a potential 2nd year La Nada winter, I’d get it centered near -2 for the NE/Midwest instead of -4: still chilly no doubt but with only half the anomaly that JB’s map has:

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree regarding the growing feast or famine distributuon of the snowfall, but at least at this latitude, talk to me in 7 years regarding the bolded.

Even in our country, a mere speck on the globe, patterns are absolutely not the same from one place to another. I do not agree with bluewaves generalizations simply because you cannot predict the future, period. As he is familiar with NYC more than I am, Im not going to go into detail about anything, but i feel some of these assertions as about low snow winters of the past vs low snow winters today, or why there was heavy snow last decade, etc etc are a bit of a stretch. The coldest period of NYC's climate record would still be a super mild winter by todays standards in Detroit, and again, look on a globe and see how close the two are. NYC is not going from some winter paradise to the tropics.

I also feel that the feast/famine approach has always applied to the east coast, even if its more extreme now. But its interesting to see that you are seeing that more in new england as well, as I have not really seen that here, and our temperatures are likely quite similar. Despite all the microclimates and nuances, I stand by the fact that from a pure snowfall perspective, anyone north of 40N is sitting pretty in a climate when winter precipitation on average is increasing yet it is still plenty cold for months to see fun snow times.