2025-2026 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im sure some of the indices were similar, but really the sensible weather didnt come close here. Obviously the snowfall as has been mentioned (I had my all-time high 96.2" in 2013-14 vs 29.5" this winter....DTW had their all-time high 94.9" in 2013-14 vs 28.7" this winter), but more than just that, 2013-14 was nonstop cold and storm systems thru the Great Lakes whereas this winter was quiet. Sure, it snowed often but much of that was helped by the lakes. Not talking just locally, but the entire region, a huge difference in the activeness of the pattern. Temp wise, 2013-14 was colder than avg every month Nov-Apr. This winter, Nov-Dec mild, Jan-Feb cold, Mar mild, Apr cold.

Didn't you find it annoying that in 2013-14 you came so close to 100 inches and missed it by less than 4 inches !

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't you find it annoying that in 2013-14 you came so close to 100 inches and missed it by less than 4 inches !

It crossed my mind but honestly, that winter was about so much more than the total snowfall. There was the brutal cold, the constant blowing and drifting of the existing deep snowpack (barns in rural areas between Detroit and Toledo were drifted over rooftops in spots), it was truly all-encompassing. The 0 snow depth on Dec 7th would be my last 0 depth til March 30th. 

Whats astounding about nearly hitting 100" of seasonal snow in Detroit is it is done without aid of a monster noreaster or lake effect event. While we get LES, its never more than a few inches at a time. Our biggest storm that winter was around 11". It was a true parade of storm after storm, and in the wake of these storms was usually blowing and drifting snow with wind chills way below zero. Day after day of heaven.

Though its not a metric i usually use, one of the Lakes posters talks about SDDs (snow depth days), which is a sum of the seasonal snow depth. The winter of 2013-14 at Detroit ranks #1 at 922, with #2 way behind at 573 (and this was 2014-15). The infamous winter of 1977-78 comes in at 4th with 514, over 400 LESS than 2013-14. (I looked it up and first place for NYC is an impressive 660 in 1947-48). 

The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to rates winters (since 1950) related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season. 2013-14 is #1 at Detroit with a score of 1277, and 2nd place (the infamous winter of 1977-78) is 231 less at 1046. NYCs most severe winter since 1950 is 2014-15 with a score of 578.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It crossed my mind but honestly, that winter was about so much more than the total snowfall. There was the brutal cold, the constant blowing and drifting of the existing deep snowpack (barns in rural areas between Detroit and Toledo were drifted over rooftops in spots), it was truly all-encompassing. The 0 snow depth on Dec 7th would be my last 0 depth til March 30th. 

Whats astounding about nearly hitting 100" of seasonal snow in Detroit is it is done without aid of a monster noreaster or lake effect event. While we get LES, its never more than a few inches at a time. Our biggest storm that winter was around 11". It was a true parade of storm after storm, and in the wake of these storms was usually blowing and drifting snow with wind chills way below zero. Day after day of heaven.

Though its not a metric i usually use, one of the Lakes posters talks about SDDs (snow depth days), which is a sum of the seasonal snow depth. The winter of 2013-14 at Detroit ranks #1 at 922, with #2 way behind at 573 (and this was 2014-15). The infamous winter of 1977-78 comes in at 4th with 514, over 400 LESS than 2013-14. (I looked it up and first place for NYC is an impressive 660 in 1947-48). 

The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to rates winters (since 1950) related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season. 2013-14 is #1 at Detroit with a score of 1277, and 2nd place (the infamous winter of 1977-78) is 231 less at 1046. NYCs most severe winter since 1950 is 2014-15 with a score of 578.

2014-15 was one of my favorite winters of all time-- can you see where 2010-11 ranks on that list? And do you have numbers for JFK as well, since thats closer to where I live, Thanks!

 

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2014-15 was one of my favorite winters of all time-- can you see where 2010-11 ranks on that list? And do you have numbers for JFK as well, since thats closer to where I live, Thanks!

 

Here is the link to play around. They only have NYC & LGA, no JFK. Few years in late 1990s missing 

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/AWSSI/chart

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi

2010-11 ranked 4th 

2014-15: 578
2013-14: 568
1993-94: 552
2010-11: 548
 

[bluewave]

On 4/14/2025 at 8:24 AM, michsnowfreak said:

I dont think ive ever seen an ASOS issue where temps are too low, but frequently where they are too high

That isn’t the case as a faulty ASOS sensor could just as easily run too cold like was the case in Albany several years back.

https://cbs6albany.com/weather/weather-extra/octobers-weather-highlights-and-why-temps-at-albany-remain-a-problem

October temperature data at Albany continued to suffer from the estimated 2-3 degree cold bias that was introduced into the climate record on July 17 as a result of the temperature sensor being replaced at the airport ASOS (automated surface observation station.)Hope, however,grew in October that the problem was corrected when the National Weather Service announced the sensor had again been replaced on October 15. Unfortunately, the replacement sensorwas not new, but instead a refurbished unit and has subsequently also illustrated a cold bias.We know there is a cold bias through comparisons we can make utilizing nearby observations sites including sites that are part of the New York Mesonet.The sensor appears a little better, but the bias may be as great as 2 degrees, which is significant when it comes to the climate record.I'm told the sensor is under evaluation and therefore it is not known if it will again be replaced.In terms of the temperature data going into Albany's climate record since July 17, it is not known what if anything will be done to adjust it.A determination has to be made on how cold the July 17th sensor was and that either has not yet been determined or the information has not yet been released.So stay tuned on that one.When I learn of any decision by NOAA's National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), the keepers of the nation's climate data, I'll let you know.

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

It crossed my mind but honestly, that winter was about so much more than the total snowfall. There was the brutal cold, the constant blowing and drifting of the existing deep snowpack (barns in rural areas between Detroit and Toledo were drifted over rooftops in spots), it was truly all-encompassing. The 0 snow depth on Dec 7th would be my last 0 depth til March 30th. 

Whats astounding about nearly hitting 100" of seasonal snow in Detroit is it is done without aid of a monster noreaster or lake effect event. While we get LES, its never more than a few inches at a time. Our biggest storm that winter was around 11". It was a true parade of storm after storm, and in the wake of these storms was usually blowing and drifting snow with wind chills way below zero. Day after day of heaven.

Though its not a metric i usually use, one of the Lakes posters talks about SDDs (snow depth days), which is a sum of the seasonal snow depth. The winter of 2013-14 at Detroit ranks #1 at 922, with #2 way behind at 573 (and this was 2014-15). The infamous winter of 1977-78 comes in at 4th with 514, over 400 LESS than 2013-14. (I looked it up and first place for NYC is an impressive 660 in 1947-48). 

The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to rates winters (since 1950) related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season. 2013-14 is #1 at Detroit with a score of 1277, and 2nd place (the infamous winter of 1977-78) is 231 less at 1046. NYCs most severe winter since 1950 is 2014-15 with a score of 578.

some pics from 2014

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Here is the link to play around. They only have NYC & LGA, no JFK. Few years in late 1990s missing 

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/AWSSI/chart

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi

2010-11 ranked 4th 

2014-15: 578
2013-14: 568
1993-94: 552
2010-11: 548
 

early 2010s was pretty wild for both of us, 3 out of the top 4.

1993-94 and 1995-96 were really good too, I guess the thaw in the middle of January lowered it somewhat.  That was our most snowfall record.  I'm surprised not to see that up there and also 2002-03 those were our only wall to wall winters, we had snow every month from November to April those two seasons.

 

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

early 2010s was pretty wild for both of us, 3 out of the top 4.

1993-94 and 1995-96 were really good too, I guess the thaw in the middle of January lowered it somewhat.  That was our most snowfall record.  I'm surprised not to see that up there and also 2002-03 those were our only wall to wall winters, we had snow every month from November to April those two seasons.

 

1995-96 had M data for NYC so was not included on the graph. However, one thing to note, is this is the perfect metric for a true "severe winter" since it uses all metrics. Some mild, snowy winters here ranked less severe than much colder winters that saw 20+ less inches of snow.

Our top 10 most severe winters since 1950

2013-14: 1277
1977-78: 1046
1981-82: 1031
2014-15: 925
1976-77: 872
2010-11: 864
2008-09: 804
1983-84: 784
1969-70: 780
1978-79: 780
 

[GaWx]

 I see very little chance for El Niño at this point. The only thing that I recall that ever explicitly hinted at it was CANSIPS a number of months ago when looking ahead to August showing a significant central Pacific equatorial warming. However, it has since been modifying this each run and no longer shows anything of note. In addition, Nino regions have cooled notably from highs in March/earlier this month (see below). When also considering the Euro’s notable warm bias in spring for the subsequent autumn, I’d also say very low chance. La Niña may very well have a better chance than El Niño.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Thanks for posting this. Here are my thoughts fwiw:

1. The Euro has a significant warm bias from spring predictions. The April run has Nino 3.4 max at only +0.42 (in JAS) before starting to drop. Considering its warm bias, that in itself is signaling a trimonth peak near 0.

2. However, the CFS, which has tended to have a cool bias the last 2 years, is one of the warmest with a peak of +0.62 in OND and still rising slowly. That tells me to not completely dismiss the chance for a weak El Niño.

3. MetFrance over the last 2 years has averaged a modest warm bias though it has missed somewhat too cold in some months. It’s April has a peak of +0.19 in ASO and still very slowly rising. If anything, that suggests a trimonth peak that could be ~~0.

4. BoA (Aus-Access) has it up to +0.57 in JAS and still very slowly rising. Due to a strong warm bias in 2023, a moderate warm bias in 2024, and this being the warmest for ASO of any major dynamic model, I feel this is signaling a low end warm neutral. 

5. I consider the combo of the UKMET and the JMA as having the lowest bias of any kind. The UK has -0.31 in JAS (coldest of major dynamic models) and still falling significantly. The JMA has -0.14 in ASO and still falling slowly. These two suggest cold neutral as being most likely in autumn.

6. So, based on the above, I currently favor anywhere from ~0.0 to cold neutral for autumn to winter.

7. None of this takes into account RONI, which I currently favor to be at least 0.3 cooler than ONI. So, RONI could drift into weak La Niña territory based on UK/JMA.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If we have a Weak La Nina this year (RONI), I would most definitely bet on a decent sized El Nino for either 26-27 or 27-28. 

[bluewave]

It may not ultimately matter much what the ENSO does as long as we continue to see these record marine heatwaves over the WPAC seemingly run the show. It sets up these tremendous thermal gradients between Siberia and the waters near Japan leading to the acceleration of the Pacific Jet. Which in turn drives the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks leading to below normal snowfall from Philly to Boston. This is why the 7 year running average snowfall in this region has reached lows never seen before.
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't know why anyone should read too much into the 7 year snow drought after that stretch that we just had the previous decade.....still looks like simple regression to me, regardless of the catalyst. 

If you want to surmise anything behond that, talk to me in another 7 years.

[snowman19]

 I see very little chance for El Niño at this point. The only thing that I recall that ever explicitly hinted at it was CANSIPS a number of months ago when looking ahead to August showing a significant central Pacific equatorial warming. However, it has since been modifying this each run and no longer shows anything of note. In addition, Nino regions have cooled notably from highs in March/earlier this month (see below). When also considering the Euro’s notable warm bias in spring for the subsequent autumn, I’d also say very low chance. La Niña may very well have a better chance than El Niño.

IMO, best guess, we see a cold-neutral, possibly borderline weak La Niña ENSO. El Niño looks extremely unlikely now

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know why anyone should read too much into the 7 year snow drought after that stretch that we just had the previous decade.....still looks like simple regression to me, regardless of the catalyst. 

If you want to surmise anything behond that, talk to me in another 7 years.

That 7 year "snow drought" talk is very over the top IMO. Its a simple regression to get closer to the mean. Its been happening since the beginning of climate records, and its how averages come to be.

I looked at a few places. For starters, it looks like only NYC is the one who can claim their all-time low for the past 7 years, not the entire region. And for what thats worth, there were other 7 year periods closer to this 7-year low (1920s & 1950s) than any were to the 7-year high from 2010-16.

But the bigger picture is that I just dont understand how the anomalously high number of heavy snow winters in the 2000s and 2010s are just dismissed as if they never happened when discussing recent low snow years. I mean, we arent talking generations ago, and we arent talking slightly above avg snowfall. We are talking very recent years that we ALL remember and that set one heavy snow record after another.

NYC avg snowfall last 7 years: 14.9”
7 yr avg 2009-10 thru 2015-16: 41.0”
POR avg 28.2”
21st century avg: 29.0”

Boston avg snowfall last 7 years: 26.6”
7 yr avg 2008-09 thru 2014-15: 60.7”
POR avg: 42.4”
21st century avg: 44.8”

Portland, ME avg snowfall last 7 yrs: 51.4”
7 yr avg 2011-12 thru 2017-18: 79.8”
POR avg: 65.7”
21st century avg: 66.6”

**********

Detroit avg last 7 years: 36.6”
7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 59.8”
POR avg: 40.9”
21st century avg: 45.8”

Chicago avg last 7 years: 32.2”
7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 51.0”
POR avg: 36.4”
21st century avg: 38.0”

Milwaukee avg last 7 years: 40.8”
7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 59.0”
POR avg 47.3”
21st century avg: 47.2”
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

That 7 year "snow drought" talk is very over the top IMO. Its a simple regression to get closer to the mean. Its been happening since the beginning of climate records, and its how averages come to be.

I looked at a few places. For starters, it looks like only NYC is the one who can claim their all-time low for the past 7 years, not the entire region. And for what thats worth, there were other 7 year periods closer to this 7-year low (1920s & 1950s) than any were to the 7-year high from 2010-16.

But the bigger picture is that I just dont understand how the anomalously high number of heavy snow winters in the 2000s and 2010s are just dismissed as if they never happened when discussing recent low snow years. I mean, we arent talking generations ago, and we arent talking slightly above avg snowfall. We are talking very recent years that we ALL remember and that set one heavy snow record after another.

NYC avg snowfall last 7 years: 14.9”
7 yr avg 2009-10 thru 2015-16: 41.0”
POR avg 28.2”
21st century avg: 29.0”

Boston avg snowfall last 7 years: 26.6”
7 yr avg 2008-09 thru 2014-15: 60.7”
POR avg: 42.4”
21st century avg: 44.8”

Portland, ME avg snowfall last 7 yrs: 51.4”
7 yr avg 2011-12 thru 2017-18: 79.8”
POR avg: 65.7”
21st century avg: 66.6”

**********

Detroit avg last 7 years: 36.6”
7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 59.8”
POR avg: 40.9”
21st century avg: 45.8”

Chicago avg last 7 years: 32.2”
7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 51.0”
POR avg: 36.4”
21st century avg: 38.0”

Milwaukee avg last 7 years: 40.8”
7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 59.0”
POR avg 47.3”
21st century avg: 47.2”
 

 

My mean snowfall since 2015 has just now dropped below the longer term mean snowfall after this past season...just to put things into perspective regarding how bannanas 2014-2015 was.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My mean snowfall since 2015 has just now dropped below the longer term mean snowfall after this past season...just to put things into perspective how bannanas 2014-2015 was.

Thats insane. 

Whats funny is id heard several of the normies refer to this as an "old fashioned" winter. lmao, yet snowfall was way below avg, but give them a cold, white Jan & Feb with ice covered lakes and it does the trick I guess. Meanwhile, 2 years ago we saw 8" more snow than this season but we heard what a mild winter it was, and I also heard multiple times in some heavier snow winters that finished well above avg that this was a "normal" MI winter.

Ive learned over the years that the general public base their general opinion of a winter (here at least) off of how cold and snowcovered Jan/Feb are. Doesnt matter how much (or how little) snow falls in Oct-Dec or Mar-May. And Ive learned that the general consensus of snow weenies is all about that final snowfall number, regardless how the winter was overall. (Again, these generalizations dont apply to all). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats insane. 

Whats funny is id heard several of the normies refer to this as an "old fashioned" winter. lmao, yet snowfall was way below avg, but give them a cold, white Jan & Feb with ice covered lakes and it does the trick I guess. Meanwhile, 2 years ago we saw 8" more snow than this season but we heard what a mild winter it was, and I also heard multiple times in some heavier snow winters that finished well above avg that this was a "normal" MI winter.

Ive learned over the years that the general public base their general opinion of a winter (here at least) off of how cold and snowcovered Jan/Feb are. Doesnt matter how much (or how little) snow falls in Oct-Dec or Mar-May. And Ive learned that the general consensus of snow weenies is all about that final snowfall number, regardless how the winter was overall. (Again, these generalizations dont apply to all). 

The vast majority have little knowledge of climo so their opinion is based entirely on anecodtal and subjective observations.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for posting this. Here are my thoughts fwiw:

1. The Euro has a significant warm bias from spring predictions. The April run has Nino 3.4 max at only +0.42 (in JAS) before starting to drop. Considering its warm bias, that in itself is signaling a trimonth peak near 0.

2. However, the CFS, which has tended to have a cool bias the last 2 years, is one of the warmest with a peak of +0.62 in OND and still rising slowly. That tells me to not completely dismiss the chance for a weak El Niño.

3. MetFrance over the last 2 years has averaged a modest warm bias though it has missed somewhat too cold in some months. It’s April has a peak of +0.19 in ASO and still very slowly rising. If anything, that suggests a trimonth peak that could be ~~0.

4. BoA (Aus-Access) has it up to +0.57 in JAS and still very slowly rising. Due to a strong warm bias in 2023, a moderate warm bias in 2024, and this being the warmest for ASO of any major dynamic model, I feel this is signaling a low end warm neutral. 

5. I consider the combo of the UKMET and the JMA as having the lowest bias of any kind. The UK has -0.31 in JAS (coldest of major dynamic models) and still falling significantly. The JMA has -0.14 in ASO and still falling slowly. These two suggest cold neutral as being most likely in autumn.

6. So, based on the above, I currently favor anywhere from ~0.0 to cold neutral for autumn to winter.

7. None of this takes into account RONI, which I currently favor to be at least 0.3 cooler than ONI. So, RONI could drift into weak La Niña territory based on UK/JMA.

FWIW, here is the one from April 2013: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/archive/201304/QuickLook.html

Almost eerily similar to what we have currently. The fact that almost everything is lining up perfectly with 2013 makes me feel really optimistic 2025-26 is going to be a cold and very snowy winter. Even the PAC jet is returning to a favorable setup.

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know why anyone should read too much into the 7 year snow drought after that stretch that we just had the previous decade.....still looks like simple regression to me, regardless of the catalyst. 

If you want to surmise anything behond that, talk to me in another 7 years.

The significance of past snow droughts ,which were weaker than what we have been experiencing over the past 7 years, is that they were due to cyclical drier patterns in a significantly colder climate. So once the dry patterns abated, the snows returned with record seasons in the early 1930s, early 1960s, late 1970s, and early to mid 1990s.

This has been the first snow drought from Philly to Boston that has largely been the result of both warm winters and warm storm tracks. Which is the function of a steadily warming climate. It will be a significant challenge for this climate to produce another winter snowfall outcome like 1933-1934, 1957-1958, 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1993-1994, and 1995-1996. Those were the winters which followed past very low 7 year snowfall stretches. It’s has become too warm to get cold and snowy winters of that magnitude. 

So this leaves a few options going forward. Option one is a continuation of this very low snowfall regime right into the 2030s. The next scenario is a bounce back to snowier than the last 7 years, but well below what was experienced in the 2010s. Such a bounce would probably be transient before the lower snowfall totals resume in the 2030s. The lowest probability outcome next 7 years is a return to the 2009-2010 to 2017-2018 snowfall bonanza since many of background climate signals from that era have shifted warmer including storm tracks and overall warmth.