2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

Per JB today:

if the downward trends continue, we should see a slowdown in the thermohaline circulation, coupled with declines in SST and lower tropospheric temps going forward. We MAY be at the inflection point we've wanted to see. Fingers crossed!

———————
Global seismic activity (Mw 5.3 and greater) from 1/1/1977 - 12/31/2024. Data in yellow indicate yearly projections for 2025 but should be accorded low confidence at
this time.

 

 

@donsutherland1

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Per JB today:

if the downward trends continue, we should see a slowdown in the thermohaline circulation, coupled with declines in SST and lower tropospheric temps going forward. We MAY be at the inflection point we've wanted to see. Fingers crossed!

———————
Global seismic activity (Mw 5.3 and greater) from 1/1/1977 - 12/31/2024. Data in yellow indicate yearly projections for 2025 but should be accorded low confidence at
this time.

 

 

@donsutherland1

Oceans have been warming from top down. I strongly doubt that his speculation has much merit. That we’re coming off an La Niña suggests that 2025 should be somewhat cooler than 2024 was overall, including SSTs.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think we are seeing this with el ninos. The last moderate one was 2002-03, which is over 20 years ago now. Since then, either they've been weak (2004-05, 2006-07, 2014-15, and 2018-19/20) or strong/super (2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24).

That doesn't seem to be the case with la ninas. We just had 3 straight years of moderate la nina in 2020-23.

I mean in the maps.. with 100 years more data, Weak ENSO events will look "weak" in the composites. and strong ENSO events will give a "strong" signal. The problem now with 7-9 years in the data is that other things like the NAO have more impact with weaker ENSO. (It doesn't have to do with the frequency of Weak vs Moderate vs Strong events occurring, I'm talking about their correlated effects - stronger has stronger effects, weaker has weaker effects). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/5/2025 at 9:07 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I mean in the maps.. with 100 years more data, Weak ENSO events will look "weak" in the composites. and strong ENSO events will give a "strong" signal. The problem now with 7-9 years in the data is that other things like the NAO have more impact with weaker ENSO. (It doesn't have to do with the frequency of Weak vs Moderate vs Strong events occurring, I'm talking about their correlated effects - stronger has stronger effects, weaker has weaker effects). 

Exactly as I explain it....weaker events are more prone to extra tropical (and arctic) influences.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/4/2025 at 10:01 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Weak vs Moderate vs Strong ENSO is just different amplitude of the same thing. 

I think the differences are just from not having enough climate data and weaker events having more weight from other things. 

With 50-100 more years of climate data, the differences will be sorted out and you'll only see a "weak" vs "strong" signal in the data. 

Eh....to a point...there are disparate HC configurations for weaker vs stronger events and modiki vs east-base events...

[LibertyBell]

On 4/5/2025 at 7:48 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think we are seeing this with el ninos. The last moderate one was 2002-03, which is over 20 years ago now. Since then, either they've been weak (2004-05, 2006-07, 2014-15, and 2018-19/20) or strong/super (2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24).

That doesn't seem to be the case with la ninas. We just had 3 straight years of moderate la nina in 2020-23.

why do la ninas happen more frequently than el ninos and why do they last longer?

 

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why do la ninas happen more frequently than el ninos and why do they last longer?

 

Right? It's frickin' annoying how it seems to be harder to get the coveted niño ye ninas are easy 

[michsnowfreak]

If I had to pick between a nino and nina, its nina all day everyday here so Im fine with them being more frequent. That said, ENSO episodes have proven multiple times the past few decades that they dont always behave according to expectation.

It does seem that ninos and ninas are kind of suffocating "neutral" years and making them few and far between.

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

If I had to pick between a nino and nina, its nina all day everyday here so Im fine with them being more frequent. That said, ENSO episodes have proven multiple times the past few decades that they dont always behave according to expectation.

It does seem that ninos and ninas are kind of suffocating "neutral" years and making them few and far between.

anyone who wants to see snow just needs to watch the Yankees at Tigers game!!

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

anyone who wants to see snow just needs to watch the Yankees at Tigers game!!

Big cold front came thru. Its windy and the flakes are flying off and on. Wind chills in the teens later. They changed all 3 games to day games this series because of the cold. 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Big cold front came thru. Its windy and the flakes are flying off and on. Wind chills in the teens later. They changed all 3 games to day games this series because of the cold. 

 

I noticed the change in timing!  Are the other two games going to have snow too (or was that forecast to happen at night?)

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I noticed the change in timing!  Are the other two games going to have snow too (or was that forecast to happen at night?)

 

They changed due to cold, not snow. Lows tonight and tomorrow night in the low 20s with wind chills tonight in the teens. The decision to move up was because it's "warmer" in the day. Tomorrow should have sun but high only 37, maybe some lake snow showers. Wed will be warmer but rain and snow possible at night. 

Just sucks for whoever had tickets to night games. 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

They changed due to cold, not snow. Lows tonight and tomorrow night in the low 20s with wind chills tonight in the teens. The decision to move up was because it's "warmer" in the day. Tomorrow should have sun but high only 37, maybe some lake snow showers. Wed will be warmer but rain and snow possible at night. 

Just sucks for whoever had tickets to night games. 

Early April is too early for baseball let alone late March which is when baseball begins now.

[Terpeast]

Don’t look now, but WCS daily PDO is no longer negative for the first time in many years
 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Don’t look now, but WCS daily PDO is no longer negative for the first time in many years
 

Beautiful...keep on risin'  I'm curious to see just how much of our woes were caused by the negative regime...I mean at least last winter felt like winter (even though snow results were skewed south of the northeast/northern Mid Atl). It was the first winter that felt "normal". And that happens when the PDO was the least negative it had been in years? Hmm...

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Beautiful...keep on risin'  I'm curious to see just how much of our woes were caused by the negative regime...I mean at least last winter felt like winter (even though snow results were skewed south of the northeast/northern Mid Atl). It was the first winter that felt "normal". And that happens when the PDO was the least negative it had been in years? Hmm...

I wonder if this is an early sign of an el nino for next winter?

Any connection there?

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly as I explain it....weaker events are more prone to extra tropical (and arctic) influences.

Not to be confused with it correlating with NAO.. big difference. An example: There are 8 Weak La Nina's and 6 have -NAO. You would think that they are connected, but that's actually too low of a sample size. I just use the NAO in this example to provide a divider so that it can be more easily understood what I mean. It's a tough one to overcome believe it or not mentally, but given 100 historical examples, Weak ENSO will look "weak" in the composite, and Strong ENSO will look strong.. however, what they are correlated to (SE ridge or whatever) will be in the same spot in both sample sets, given enough examples. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh....to a point...there are disparate HC configurations for weaker vs stronger events and modiki vs east-base events...

Yeah, east vs west-based ENSO is different. East has more of a North Pacific high correlation, and west is more connected to PNA.