2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

Per JB today:

if the downward trends continue, we should see a slowdown in the thermohaline circulation, coupled with declines in SST and lower tropospheric temps going forward. We MAY be at the inflection point we've wanted to see. Fingers crossed!

———————
Global seismic activity (Mw 5.3 and greater) from 1/1/1977 - 12/31/2024. Data in yellow indicate yearly projections for 2025 but should be accorded low confidence at
this time.

 

 

@donsutherland1

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Per JB today:

if the downward trends continue, we should see a slowdown in the thermohaline circulation, coupled with declines in SST and lower tropospheric temps going forward. We MAY be at the inflection point we've wanted to see. Fingers crossed!

———————
Global seismic activity (Mw 5.3 and greater) from 1/1/1977 - 12/31/2024. Data in yellow indicate yearly projections for 2025 but should be accorded low confidence at
this time.

 

 

@donsutherland1

Oceans have been warming from top down. I strongly doubt that his speculation has much merit. That we’re coming off an La Niña suggests that 2025 should be somewhat cooler than 2024 was overall, including SSTs.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think we are seeing this with el ninos. The last moderate one was 2002-03, which is over 20 years ago now. Since then, either they've been weak (2004-05, 2006-07, 2014-15, and 2018-19/20) or strong/super (2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24).

That doesn't seem to be the case with la ninas. We just had 3 straight years of moderate la nina in 2020-23.

I mean in the maps.. with 100 years more data, Weak ENSO events will look "weak" in the composites. and strong ENSO events will give a "strong" signal. The problem now with 7-9 years in the data is that other things like the NAO have more impact with weaker ENSO. (It doesn't have to do with the frequency of Weak vs Moderate vs Strong events occurring, I'm talking about their correlated effects - stronger has stronger effects, weaker has weaker effects).