2025-2026 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

On 3/31/2025 at 11:54 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like they want to repeat 2024-2025.. I wonder if back to back years have ever been so similar (except for ENSO)

1916-17 and 1917-18

 

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, roardog said:

I would say there’s a reasonably good chance Enso will be weak either way. 

From an enso perspective thats already a decent sign...but as we know Enso is just 1 piece of the puzzle.

[michsnowfreak]

For you Pacific experts..as we progress through the warm months, when do we start to look for signs (not in models, but in actual real-time) that the Pacific is looking like it will be "favorable" or "unfavorable" for the next cold season.

I always hear so much talk about it and obviously its only one piece of the puzzle, but its a piece I am clueless about.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 3/26/2025 at 6:10 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The end to this winter/beginning of this spring is eerily similar to 2010. It just ended abruptly in mid/late February, then we have a warm March, and a heat wave in early April. The absence of a definitive ENSO state in 2024-25 is definitely helping this behave like the previous ENSO state, which was a strong el nino.

I thought the CANSIPS H5 look resembled 2010-2011 somewhwat.

[roardog]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

From an enso perspective thats already a decent sign...but as we know Enso is just 1 piece of the puzzle.

I know snow lovers in the Midwest generally hate an El Niño but a weaker Nino can be good, especially once you get to the eastern part of the sub including you and I.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

I know snow lovers in the Midwest generally hate an El Niño but a weaker Nino can be good, especially once you get to the eastern part of the sub including you and I.

Actually, when it comes to El Nino, strong is what I detest hearing. Im fine with weak El Nino, and in fact, often times the word El Nino scares people more than it should. Some very wintry winters in the weak Nino category since 1950....

1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2004-04, 2014-15. The only really awful winter I can find as a weak Nino was 1952-53.

But more important than anything, we have really learned over the past multiple ENSO episodes that the standard "rules" of what to expect do not always apply.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This early Spring warmup continues to look impressive.. PNA is lowest since October. -PNA/+NAO

Richmond forecasted highs:

4-3: 83F

4-4: 86F

4-5: 85F

4-6: 87F

Washington DC is currently forecasted 86F for 4-6! I was kind of wrong to say that 90 potential was gone so soon. 

Gawx posted something last night, that if Atlanta hits 90F, it will be the earliest by 18 days! (they are forecasted 87, 90, 90)

For this period of warmth, I looked at what was happening over the NW (Portland hit 82F), and how when the west coast warmth was initialized, models were giving more +EPO pattern. That usually leads to temps overperforming +days. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

For you Pacific experts..as we progress through the warm months, when do we start to look for signs (not in models, but in actual real-time) that the Pacific is looking like it will be "favorable" or "unfavorable" for the next cold season.

I always hear so much talk about it and obviously its only one piece of the puzzle, but its a piece I am clueless about.

I'd actually say a strongly +NAO this Summer (last year we had 9 different daily -500mb periods over Greenland) may lead to a similar result as last Winter with the -EPO. Pacific is kind of in a state right now of Hadley Cell expansion, so look for low pressures and cooler SSTAs from Japan to north of Hawaii. 

I'll also be watching North Atlantic SSTA's May-September, as it has proven to have high predictability for the following Winter's NAO. Since I incepted a method based on that in 2005, it has gotten the + or negative state right 14-5, and within an estimated 0.54 standard deviation, it has gone 10-9 (Dec-Mar) in real-time/forecasted time.  

[so_whats_happening]

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

For you Pacific experts..as we progress through the warm months, when do we start to look for signs (not in models, but in actual real-time) that the Pacific is looking like it will be "favorable" or "unfavorable" for the next cold season.

I always hear so much talk about it and obviously its only one piece of the puzzle, but its a piece I am clueless about.

No expert but I do enjoy watching things evolve in the Pacific. I would personally watch how the warm waters around and east of Japan set up. If we see a resurgence due to high pressure/ ridge dominance than we reset things. I would also watch to see how the WPAC typhoon season goes. It has been rather lackluster (not near average) for some time if there is an uptick this year changes certainly are afoot. 

In the EPAC I would watch around the Baja to see what happens with those waters as well. This semi -PDO setup is holding on and that may be a clue into fall and winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's a good image showing how the subsurface has been leading the surface for some time.. even before 2 years ago, it was working with a good lead time like this.. I would have to go through those long ENSO threads to find the older data, but I'm pretty sure it's been like this for 3-4 years. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+35 SOI today. +26 yesterday. 

It's been positive every day since February 24th.. today marks the 40th consecutive day in a row. 

It's been making runs like this, and makes me thing that we continue to work with a long term -ENSO state. From 2020-2023, the SOI was positive 31 months in a row! 

^Even during the Strong El Nino, the SOI was not that negative relatively, and matched the lack of big +PNA pattern that year. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'd actually say a strongly +NAO this Summer (last year we had 9 different daily -500mb periods over Greenland) may lead to a similar result as last Winter with the -EPO. Pacific is kind of in a state right now of Hadley Cell expansion, so look for low pressures and cooler SSTAs from Japan to north of Hawaii. 

I'll also be watching North Atlantic SSTA's May-September, as it has proven to have high predictability for the following Winter's NAO. Since I incepted a method based on that in 2005, it has gotten the + or negative state right 14-5, and within an estimated 0.54 standard deviation, it has gone 10-9 (Dec-Mar) in real-time/forecasted time.  

 

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

No expert but I do enjoy watching things evolve in the Pacific. I would personally watch how the warm waters around and east of Japan set up. If we see a resurgence due to high pressure/ ridge dominance than we reset things. I would also watch to see how the WPAC typhoon season goes. It has been rather lackluster (not near average) for some time if there is an uptick this year changes certainly are afoot. 

In the EPAC I would watch around the Baja to see what happens with those waters as well. This semi -PDO setup is holding on and that may be a clue into fall and winter.

Thanks guys! It will be something I'll be watching and trying to learn as summer goes on. Plenty of deep winter this year, but hopefully if the Pacific becomes favorable we can get more winter storms with some meat on their bones.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Pattern is moistening up now..

I've noticed that everytime we have an oncoming drought in the eastern 1/2 of the country, it gets wet real fast, since 2002 really. 

[GaWx]

The March 2025 30 mb QBO came in at +11.82, a slight rise vs Feb. I still think this has a good chance to go negative by summer.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

The March 2025 30 mb QBO came in at 11.82, a slight rise vs Feb. I still think this has a good chance to go negative by summer.

Pretty much a >90% chance it will be negative for the Winter. 

-QBO with El Nino favors Stratosphere warmings. The weight is 3-1. I'm not saying this next Winter will be El Nino, that's just the strongest correlation with -QBO. 

Last Winter the +QBO really correlated at 10mb.  Paired up with -ENSO, they usually work out that way. 

March actually has a pretty neutral historical signal.. and it was warm Stratosphere March

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually, when it comes to El Nino, strong is what I detest hearing. Im fine with weak El Nino, and in fact, often times the word El Nino scares people more than it should. Some very wintry winters in the weak Nino category since 1950....

1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2004-04, 2014-15. The only really awful winter I can find as a weak Nino was 1952-53.

But more important than anything, we have really learned over the past multiple ENSO episodes that the standard "rules" of what to expect do not always apply.

That is because it occurred within a deep cold phase of the Pacific, which we are just emerging from.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'd actually say a strongly +NAO this Summer (last year we had 9 different daily -500mb periods over Greenland) may lead to a similar result as last Winter with the -EPO. Pacific is kind of in a state right now of Hadley Cell expansion, so look for low pressures and cooler SSTAs from Japan to north of Hawaii. 

I'll also be watching North Atlantic SSTA's May-September, as it has proven to have high predictability for the following Winter's NAO. Since I incepted a method based on that in 2005, it has gotten the + or negative state right 14-5, and within an estimated 0.54 standard deviation, it has gone 10-9 (Dec-Mar) in real-time/forecasted time.  

Agreed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pretty much a >90% chance it will be negative for the Winter. 

-QBO with El Nino favors Stratosphere warmings. The weight is 3-1. I'm not saying this next Winter will be El Nino, that's just the strongest correlation with -QBO. 

Last Winter the +QBO really correlated at 10mb.  Paired up with -ENSO, they usually work out that way. 

March actually has a pretty neutral historical signal.. and it was warm Stratosphere March

In agreement with this, as well.

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually, when it comes to El Nino, strong is what I detest hearing. Im fine with weak El Nino, and in fact, often times the word El Nino scares people more than it should. Some very wintry winters in the weak Nino category since 1950....

1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2004-04, 2014-15. The only really awful winter I can find as a weak Nino was 1952-53.

But more important than anything, we have really learned over the past multiple ENSO episodes that the standard "rules" of what to expect do not always apply.

moderate can also be very good (also depends on other factors).

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

moderate can also be very good (also depends on other factors).

 

If I were south of about NYC, I would prefer moderate to weak...

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I were south of about NYC, I would prefer moderate to weak...

thinking of 2002-03 which was one of our best

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is because it occurred within a deep cold phase of the Pacific, which we are just emerging from.

Interesting, thanks! 

Big kudos to these threads. I learn a lot from them. Ive been a climate expert in my own area since I was a teenager, and as an adult Ive even developed enough to have a minor in other areas climate . But actually forecasting whats going to happen, I have always been clueless outside of looking at face value on models.

The info is also helpful to figure out if any of the odd quirks/trends of recent seasons are related to certain factors or just coincidence. 

Nov-Dec: Why is winter starting early like always with cold blasts & snow in November (often flakes in Oct) then slamming the brakes in December? 6 of the last 11 years have seen November outsnow December. That should not happen. Only 4 of the past 11 Christmases were white (we usually run 50/50). 

Jan-Feb: The meat of winter is where we thrive. Longterm warming of these two months has been negligible with January nearly non-existent, and snowfall has never averaged higher than the most recent 30-year norms. We can bank on bouts of deep winter and usually some impressive cold blast to plunge us below zero.

Mar-Apr: Why does winter want to suddenly scram following a Feb snow blitz, then come back for an encore in April? 3 consecutive years (2020-2022) saw April outsnow March. Again, that shouldnt happen. And May flakes and late frosts/freezes continue as well.

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

moderate can also be very good (also depends on other factors).

 

Yup, same here. I think the token mild winter of '97-98 is what cemented into my minds what a Nino and Nina and their strengths should do. As Ive said tho, with each passing year Im reminded more and more that ENSO, while important, is just one piece of the puzzle. Because lets face it, we all are interested in whats going to happen and how it happens, but at the end of the day the sensible weather in our backyards is what counts most. 2002-03 and 1951-52 were excellent moderate ninos here.

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Interesting, thanks! 

Big kudos to these threads. I learn a lot from them. Ive been a climate expert in my own area since I was a teenager, and as an adult Ive even developed enough to have a minor in other areas climate . But actually forecasting whats going to happen, I have always been clueless outside of looking at face value on models.

The info is also helpful to figure out if any of the odd quirks/trends of recent seasons are related to certain factors or just coincidence. 

Nov-Dec: Why is winter starting early like always with cold blasts & snow in November (often flakes in Oct) then slamming the brakes in December? 6 of the last 11 years have seen November outsnow December. That should not happen. Only 4 of the past 11 Christmases were white (we usually run 50/50). 

Jan-Feb: The meat of winter is where we thrive. Longterm warming of these two months has been negligible with January nearly non-existent, and snowfall has never averaged higher than the most recent 30-year norms. We can bank on bouts of deep winter and usually some impressive cold blast to plunge us below zero.

Mar-Apr: Why does winter want to suddenly scram following a Feb snow blitz, then come back for an encore in April? 3 consecutive years (2020-2022) saw April outsnow March. Again, that shouldnt happen. And May flakes and late frosts/freezes continue as well.

 

 

Yes, I enjoy April snow more than March snow too lol.

I think the atmosphere needs to reload after a snowy February so March is often skipped over.  When we get a lot of snow in March it's often after a lackluster mild winter (the 1950s are a great example of this.)  It's either that or December and January have been mild and the snow season really gets going later on after January 20th and lasts through March (2014-15 was like this.) Or if it's a really great winter with a lot of snow in every month then the pattern reloads during an extended multiweek thaw in January (1966-67 and 1995-96 were like this.)

It's the same reason why a snowy November usually means the first half of winter will be a dud, the pattern needs to reload (2012-13 was like this.)

 

[so_whats_happening]

On 4/2/2025 at 11:03 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pattern is moistening up now..

I've noticed that everytime we have an oncoming drought in the eastern 1/2 of the country, it gets wet real fast, since 2002 really. 

Highly localized area unfortunately. As of last month we are down about 3-3.5" on the year at BWI and if I include all of last year and so far this year we are sitting at about 10-11" below average which we have not seen in a very long time. I believe these numbers are even worse across SE PA, I know my area even after receiving about 1.5" of rain the other day 31st into the 1st we still have water restrictions across the area that were hoisted in November. Not very often we see something go into affect when it typically should start to be our wettest portion of the year.

With this rain going on over the Ohio/Mississippi river valley region we should see some type of moisture inflow into this region but every model run closer to present we tend to get drier and drier. I think between now and Monday we should manage .5" to 1" of rain but I worry as getting to near normal is a step in the right direction but we are quickly approaching the time of year where we do not tend to see large synoptic style rain events. Stalled fronts and thunderstorms is the name of the game from about mid may onward and we all know this is hit or miss.

All I can say is that it has not been terribly dry which is good but consistently not hitting the average mark for several months is a bit concerning especially going into summer. I feel the only way to get us close to average is through tropical systems, maybe this is our year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Stratosphere Polar Vortex was strong, then it got ripped apart in March. 

https://x.com/NOAAClimate/status/1907805453859295460

Since 2000, these are the analogs where we had a strong 10mb PV Nov-Feb, getting torn up in March. Look at how in the following May, it shows this battle over the Arctic at 500mb.. it takes time for Stratosphere to make it to the surface.. in this case 2 months. 

There is even a +100dm anomaly over the Hudson Bay which is anomaly for 8 years in a short wavelength month like May. 

Following June-Sept: Again, see how the ridging gets split in middle by Arctic trough. Dominant 10mb vortex recenters with High pressure actually getting moved to the edges, down to the surface. 

^It has even + and - years (4-4), so there's no global warming general thing in play. The warm March seems to be a warm signal for the Summer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, I don't do summer forecasts...not the interest level and I would end up divorced, but consensus seems to be for a hot summer.

[michsnowfreak]

23 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I enjoy April snow more than March snow too lol.

I think the atmosphere needs to reload after a snowy February so March is often skipped over.  When we get a lot of snow in March it's often after a lackluster mild winter (the 1950s are a great example of this.)  It's either that or December and January have been mild and the snow season really gets going later on after January 20th and lasts through March (2014-15 was like this.) Or if it's a really great winter with a lot of snow in every month then the pattern reloads during an extended multiweek thaw in January (1966-67 and 1995-96 were like this.)

It's the same reason why a snowy November usually means the first half of winter will be a dud, the pattern needs to reload (2012-13 was like this.)

 

I enjoy any snow, but Id still prefer March snow because often times here we can still be very wintry in March. Yes you still have the sun angle concerns, but it can still be like mid-winter. April snow comes and goes quickly.

As to the bolded, that was very common here as well, particularly from the 1930s-1950s, but in almost any decade you can find mild, lackluster winters where March saved the day. Most recently, it would be 2022-23.