2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Washington DC could make a run at or above 90F sometime around 4/4-7. It's amazing how forecasted long range -NAO tendency (March Stratosphere warming +time "downwelled") has run so warm in the East over the last few years. We had the warmest winter on record last year (23-24) with 4 separate Stratosphere warming events. -NAO potential at Day 15+ has almost always run with higher temps in the eastern, US, to verification time lately.  That's why last Summer I was seeing +NAO potential for this Winter (24-25) as possibly a cold signal.. and it was! It often linked up with -EPO/+PNA/-AO! 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Washington DC could make a run at or above 90F sometime around 4/4-7. It's amazing how forecasted long range -NAO tendency (March Stratosphere warming +time "downwelled") has run so warm in the East over the last few years. We had the warmest winter on record last year (23-24) with 4 separate Stratosphere warming events. -NAO potential at Day 15+ has almost always run with higher temps in the eastern, US, to verification time lately.  That's why last Summer I was seeing +NAO potential for this Winter (24-25) as possibly a cold signal.. and it was! It often linked up with -EPO/+PNA/-AO! 

The end to this winter/beginning of this spring is eerily similar to 2010. It just ended abruptly in mid/late February, then we have a warm March, and a heat wave in early April. The absence of a definitive ENSO state in 2024-25 is definitely helping this behave like the previous ENSO state, which was a strong el nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Washington DC could make a run at or above 90F sometime around 4/4-7. It's amazing how forecasted long range -NAO tendency (March Stratosphere warming +time "downwelled") has run so warm in the East over the last few years. We had the warmest winter on record last year (23-24) with 4 separate Stratosphere warming events. -NAO potential at Day 15+ has almost always run with higher temps in the eastern, US, to verification time lately.  That's why last Summer I was seeing +NAO potential for this Winter (24-25) as possibly a cold signal.. and it was! It often linked up with -EPO/+PNA/-AO! 

The Pacific is seemingly becoming an even more pervasive driver. BTW, my early hedge is more of that bolded next year....maybe less so with respect to the AO, but its early.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Pacific is seemingly becoming an even more pervasive driver. BTW, my early hedge is more of that bolded next year....maybe less so with respect to the AO, but its early.

In March the NAO correlated warmer.. March pretty much neutralized the cold anomalies from DJF on the 30-year average, I guess saving my Winter forecast, but this Pacific-Atlantic correlation of +NAO/+PNA/-EPO and -NAO/-PNA/+EPO continues to hit. I saw it happen many times this Winter, when one index would shift, they all would shift.. I've estimated about a 0.40 correlation in the pattern since 2019, and 0.30 correlation since 2013. 

Also if you look at Europe's warming trend over the last few decades it's incredible! It's not like the US where there was snow 2009-2016, then not 2016-2024, etc.. it's a straight line down in places like Germany. That's because the Winter NAO has been positive since 2011-2012. 85% of the time since then!  Say what you want about a warm US pattern despite -epo/+pna/-ao this year, but the NAO was very positive and that was a warm Winter variable! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The end to this winter/beginning of this spring is eerily similar to 2010. It just ended abruptly in mid/late February, then we have a warm March, and a heat wave in early April. The absence of a definitive ENSO state in 2024-25 is definitely helping this behave like the previous ENSO state, which was a strong el nino.

These peaks in high temps around the edges of Winter are a little concerning for annual snow/cold, imo. 

1/26/2024, Washington DC hit 80F.. that was the first time it ever did 80s late Nov - late February.. crushed it by a month!

Do we hit 90F in DC sometime 4/4-7?  80F this Saturday. 

October and November have had 80s lately. 

March 2012 was an interesting turn, as many places in the Mid-Atlantic hit 90F. Since then overall snowfall has been down 2012-2025. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

These peaks in high temps around the edges of Winter are a little concerning for annual snow/cold, imo. 

1/26/2024, Washington DC hit 80F.. that was the first time it ever did 80s late Nov - late February.. crushed it by a month!

Do we hit 90F in DC sometime 4/4-7?  80F this Saturday. 

October and November have had 80s lately. 

March 2012 was an interesting turn, as many places in the Mid-Atlantic hit 90F. Since then overall snowfall has been down 2012-2025. 

Always look forward to your input! Some crazy stats on DC. Especially the 80 in Jan - while we have had 60s in Jan before, nothing close to that. We actually havent hit 50 in Jan in 4 years. Looks like summer like warmth in the mid atlantic while the far northern tier gets a winter storm. I dont worry about annual cold/snow here and the edges, as we still get very early and late snows. My big thing is keeping the winter fun and deep winter periods from mid-November to mid-March. My bigger soapbox, and I KNOW itll change one of these years soon, is the wildness of how we havent had a great December since 2017. We have had several white Christmases since then, but as a whole, have to go back to 2017 to get a great December! Only 1 finished snowier than avg, and that was by 0.7". Every other month has had standouts since then.

In the 7 years since that snowy winter of 2017-18....

October- 4 of 7 with snow, 1 being measurable

November- 6 of 7 snowier than avg
December- 1 of 7 snowier than avg
January- 2 of 7 snowier than avg
February- 3 of 7 snowier than avg
March- 1 of 7 snowier than avg
April- 3 of 6 snowier than avg

May- 3 of 6 with snow, 1 being measurable
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 3/26/2025 at 1:08 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In March the NAO correlated warmer.. March pretty much neutralized the cold anomalies from DJF on the 30-year average, I guess saving my Winter forecast, but this Pacific-Atlantic correlation of +NAO/+PNA/-EPO and -NAO/-PNA/+EPO continues to hit. I saw it happen many times this Winter, when one index would shift, they all would shift.. I've estimated about a 0.40 correlation in the pattern since 2019, and 0.30 correlation since 2013. 

Also if you look at Europe's warming trend over the last few decades it's incredible! It's not like the US where there was snow 2009-2016, then not 2016-2024, etc.. it's a straight line down in places like Germany. That's because the Winter NAO has been positive since 2011-2012. 85% of the time since then!  Say what you want about a warm US pattern despite -epo/+pna/-ao this year, but the NAO was very positive and that was a warm Winter variable! 

Yea, it has been like pulling teeth to get any -NAO winter seasons for a couple of decades now....while I do agree with Larry that the solar cycle is a factor (min favored for -NAO), I also think CC maybe affecting the Atlantic pressure pattern.

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/26/2025 at 1:17 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

These peaks in high temps around the edges of Winter are a little concerning for annual snow/cold, imo. 

1/26/2024, Washington DC hit 80F.. that was the first time it ever did 80s late Nov - late February.. crushed it by a month!

Do we hit 90F in DC sometime 4/4-7?  80F this Saturday. 

October and November have had 80s lately. 

March 2012 was an interesting turn, as many places in the Mid-Atlantic hit 90F. Since then overall snowfall has been down 2012-2025. 

Not quite sure how it all works in Germany...I know obviously the basics of -NAO is colder, but from a snow-perspective, the midwest/Great Lakes often get more snow with a +NAO in winter. Its the fringe parts of the season (ie Nov/Mar-Apr) when we root on -NAO. A DJF -NAO usually screams suppression so we have to rely soley on NW flow. Im not sure if the same can be said for new england wrt the benefits of -NAO vs +NAO. And Im really not well-versed at all in the climate of Germany.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it has been like pulling teeth to get any -NAO winter seasons for a couple of decades now....while I do agree with Larry that the solar cycle is a factor (min favored for -NAO), I also think CC maybe affecting the Atlantic pressure pattern.

We've been getting -NAO's in the Summer..

This is what it's been.. expansion of the Hadley Cell in the Northern Hemisphere, amped is a -PNA/+WPO pattern in the Pacific, and +NAO in the Atlantic

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Even since Winter 18-19, we've been getting this huge -PNA/+NAO pattern.. it's actually -AAM

I love this next image, because it covers a 300-month consecutive period over 25 years.. this is the 12-month total May-Apr 1999 to 2024.. When 20% of the dataset is hit like this over a consecutive period, there is a >95% chance that the max anomaly would be over the Poles.. but we have been in a La Nina base state generally since the 97-98 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I saw this too.. My observation has been for the last 5+ years, we bust warmer a lot after the coldest day of the year passes (Jan 27th).. going into the early Spring

[Stormchaserchuck1]

SOI has been positive every day for more than a month now.

SOI Dashboard | LongPaddock | Queensland Government

SOI led this time last year, that the La Nina would not go strong. It seems to be having the same effect over the last few weeks.. 

It's also been positive 7 months in a row, including March.  2020-2023 it was positive 37 months in a row. 

[mitchnick]

April Cansips just out has a late blooming week Niño. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025040100&fh=8

Also, pretty cold winter north of Maryland starting in December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025040100&fh=8

H5 shows lots of ridging up north too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025040100&fh=8

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

April Cansips just out has a late blooming week Niño. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025040100&fh=8

Also, pretty cold winter north of Maryland starting in December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025040100&fh=8

H5 shows lots of ridging up north too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025040100&fh=8

Looks like they want to repeat 2024-2025.. I wonder if back to back years have ever been so similar (except for ENSO)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 3/25/2025 at 10:03 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Washington DC could make a run at or above 90F sometime around 4/4-7. 

Not going to hit 90 in that allotted time, but DC has had 3 straight days of 82+ here in March, making it the 4th warmest March on record. With the NAO being positive almost all of the time in the Winter (March will probably be >+1.00), the Pacific is what is needed for cold, but when the Pacific favorability shuts down, it torches.. DC hit 84F today.. a few days ago, it was expected to make it into the mid 70s today. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like they want to repeat 2024-2025.. I wonder if back to back years have ever been so similar (except for ENSO)

It looks similar, but I think it looks better ITVO AK....hopefully its much better for snowfall in SNE, or I'd absolutely lose it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That look would defintely offer some colder outbreaks than we had this past year.

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, mitchnick said:

April Cansips just out has a late blooming week Niño. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025040100&fh=8

Also, pretty cold winter north of Maryland starting in December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025040100&fh=8

H5 shows lots of ridging up north too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025040100&fh=8

The forecasting problem with CANSIPS is that its runs had been predicting a Modoki El Niño emerging by late summer back in runs going back to late last summer. But the model has since been gradually delaying more and more with each subsequent run the C equatorial Pacific warming, which tells me it is lost:

8/31/24 Cansips for August of 2025 had suggested Modoki El Niño already starting:

 

But new CANSIPS for same month has backed off considerably and now delays Nino by 6 months til way out in Feb of 2026:

 

Thus I’d take CANSIPS maps for winter 2025-6 with a huge grain just like would normally be the case when looking so far ahead on a seasonal forecasting model, which y’all normally would do:

@Stormchaserchuck1

@40/70 Benchmark

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The forecasting problem with CANSIPS is that its runs had been predicting a Modoki El Niño emerging by late summer back in runs going back to late last summer. But the model has since been gradually delaying more and more with each subsequent run the C equatorial Pacific warming, which tells me it is lost:

8/31/24 Cansips for August of 2025 had suggested Modoki El Niño already starting:

 

But new CANSIPS for same month has backed off considerably and now delays Nino by 6 months til way out in Feb of 2026:

 

Thus I’d take CANSIPS maps for winter 2025-6 with a huge grain just like would normally be the case when looking so far ahead on a seasonal forecasting model, which y’all normally would do:

@Stormchaserchuck1

@40/70 Benchmark

I'm not basing my stance off of the CANSIPS.

[roardog]

I would say there’s a reasonably good chance Enso will be weak either way. 

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

The forecasting problem with CANSIPS is that its runs had been predicting a Modoki El Niño emerging by late summer back in runs going back to late last summer. But the model has since been gradually delaying more and more with each subsequent run the C equatorial Pacific warming, which tells me it is lost:

8/31/24 Cansips for August of 2025 had suggested Modoki El Niño already starting:

 

But new CANSIPS for same month has backed off considerably and now delays Nino by 6 months til way out in Feb of 2026:

 

Thus I’d take CANSIPS maps for winter 2025-6 with a huge grain just like would normally be the case when looking so far ahead on a seasonal forecasting model, which y’all normally would do:

@Stormchaserchuck1

@40/70 Benchmark

The Cansips, like many of us posters, is pretty unstable. But I've been in lock step with 40/70 for some weeks that, imho, a warm La Nada/weak Niño is favored next winter. At least the Cansips agrees at this point. However, Enso progs before August are definitely low skill...again, like many of us posters. Lol

[mitchnick]

It's official...a +PDO. But is it all downhill from here? 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's official...a +PNA. But is it all downhill from here? 

1. Thanks for posting this! That’s noteworthy news for sure. So, 3/31/25 is the first day the WCS daily was positive since way back in late Oct of 2022 at the very least (as far back as I can look per my files). It’s possible that the last WCS daily positive was in August of 2021, but I have no way to know. This is the furthest back map I have:

2. But don’t forget that whereas it is a +PDO per this WCS map, NOAA runs significantly lower and thus is still -PDO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Thanks for posting this! That’s noteworthy news for sure. So, 3/31/25 is the first day the WCS daily was positive since way back in late Oct of 2022 at the very least (as far back as I can look per my files). It’s possible that the last WCS daily positive was in August of 2021, but I have no way to know. This is the furthest back map I have:

2. But don’t forget that whereas it is a +PDO per this WCS map, NOAA runs significantly lower and thus is still -PDO.

The important take away is that clearly there is change afoot.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-3c in the central-ENSO-subsurface.. it's not budging. The trends of surface warming through Feb and early March matched oncoming El Nino episodes, but that subsurface is still in Weak Nina range.. all last year it was around -3 to -4. Imo, that's more important than surface SSTs. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It's official...a +PNA. But is it all downhill from here? 

Well it's from +PNA. PDO-neutral is still not +PNA favorability, but we have seen a new trend of stronger +PNA episodes over the Winter which brought the PDO up.  Rolled forward, it doesn't give a +PNA signal for the following Winter (+12 months)

Per the CPC, it was the strongest +PNA Winter non-El Nino since 1950 as Gawx has researched. 

^That is a +NOI signal though (high pressure off the west coast), which is a slight La Nina indicator

Winter +PNA rolled forward is surprisingly a slight La Nina indicator for the following year, based on 63 years of data (It probably has to do with El Nino's typically switching)

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well it's from +PNA. PDO-neutral is still not +PNA favorability, but we have seen a new trend of stronger +PNA episodes over the Winter which brought the PDO up.  Rolled forward, it doesn't give a +PNA signal for the following Winter (+12 months)

Per the CPC, it was the strongest +PNA Winter non-El Nino since 1950 as Gawx has researched. 

^That is a +NOI signal though (high pressure off the west coast), which is a slight La Nina indicator

Winter +PNA rolled forward is surprisingly a slight La Nina indicator for the following year, based on 63 years of data (It probably has to do with El Nino's typically switching)

I meant PDO. Wait until you get old.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nino 1+2 finished March >+1. That actually rolls forward to a strong +PDO signal by the following Fall (although the signal could be because of blossoming El Nino events)

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-3c in the central-ENSO-subsurface.. it's not budging. The trends of surface warming through Feb and early March matched oncoming El Nino episodes, but that subsurface is still in Weak Nina range.. all last year it was around -3 to -4. Imo, that's more important than surface SSTs. 

I don't think that is prohibitive of a warm-neutral season or even a weak El Nino...I haven't seen anyone favoring a an even moderately robust warm ENSO.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/26/2025 at 6:10 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The end to this winter/beginning of this spring is eerily similar to 2010. It just ended abruptly in mid/late February, then we have a warm March, and a heat wave in early April. The absence of a definitive ENSO state in 2024-25 is definitely helping this behave like the previous ENSO state, which was a strong el nino.

I wish it was like 2010, it would be nice to get that early heat in here.