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2025-2026 ENSO


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Washington DC could make a run at or above 90F sometime around 4/4-7. It's amazing how forecasted long range -NAO tendency (March Stratosphere warming +time "downwelled") has run so warm in the East over the last few years. We had the warmest winter on record last year (23-24) with 4 separate Stratosphere warming events. -NAO potential at Day 15+ has almost always run with higher temps in the eastern, US, to verification time lately.  That's why last Summer I was seeing +NAO potential for this Winter (24-25) as possibly a cold signal.. and it was! It often linked up with -EPO/+PNA/-AO! 

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8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Washington DC could make a run at or above 90F sometime around 4/4-7. It's amazing how forecasted long range -NAO tendency (March Stratosphere warming +time "downwelled") has run so warm in the East over the last few years. We had the warmest winter on record last year (23-24) with 4 separate Stratosphere warming events. -NAO potential at Day 15+ has almost always run with higher temps in the eastern, US, to verification time lately.  That's why last Summer I was seeing +NAO potential for this Winter (24-25) as possibly a cold signal.. and it was! It often linked up with -EPO/+PNA/-AO! 

The end to this winter/beginning of this spring is eerily similar to 2010. It just ended abruptly in mid/late February, then we have a warm March, and a heat wave in early April. The absence of a definitive ENSO state in 2024-25 is definitely helping this behave like the previous ENSO state, which was a strong el nino.

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8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Washington DC could make a run at or above 90F sometime around 4/4-7. It's amazing how forecasted long range -NAO tendency (March Stratosphere warming +time "downwelled") has run so warm in the East over the last few years. We had the warmest winter on record last year (23-24) with 4 separate Stratosphere warming events. -NAO potential at Day 15+ has almost always run with higher temps in the eastern, US, to verification time lately.  That's why last Summer I was seeing +NAO potential for this Winter (24-25) as possibly a cold signal.. and it was! It often linked up with -EPO/+PNA/-AO! 

The Pacific is seemingly becoming an even more pervasive driver. BTW, my early hedge is more of that bolded next year....maybe less so with respect to the AO, but its early.

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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Pacific is seemingly becoming an even more pervasive driver. BTW, my early hedge is more of that bolded next year....maybe less so with respect to the AO, but its early.

In March the NAO correlated warmer.. March pretty much neutralized the cold anomalies from DJF on the 30-year average, I guess saving my Winter forecast, but this Pacific-Atlantic correlation of +NAO/+PNA/-EPO and -NAO/-PNA/+EPO continues to hit. I saw it happen many times this Winter, when one index would shift, they all would shift.. I've estimated about a 0.40 correlation in the pattern since 2019, and 0.30 correlation since 2013. 

Also if you look at Europe's warming trend over the last few decades it's incredible! It's not like the US where there was snow 2009-2016, then not 2016-2024, etc.. it's a straight line down in places like Germany. That's because the Winter NAO has been positive since 2011-2012. 85% of the time since then!  Say what you want about a warm US pattern despite -epo/+pna/-ao this year, but the NAO was very positive and that was a warm Winter variable! 

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7 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The end to this winter/beginning of this spring is eerily similar to 2010. It just ended abruptly in mid/late February, then we have a warm March, and a heat wave in early April. The absence of a definitive ENSO state in 2024-25 is definitely helping this behave like the previous ENSO state, which was a strong el nino.

These peaks in high temps around the edges of Winter are a little concerning for annual snow/cold, imo. 

1/26/2024, Washington DC hit 80F.. that was the first time it ever did 80s late Nov - late February.. crushed it by a month!

Do we hit 90F in DC sometime 4/4-7?  80F this Saturday. 

October and November have had 80s lately. 

March 2012 was an interesting turn, as many places in the Mid-Atlantic hit 90F. Since then overall snowfall has been down 2012-2025. 

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3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

These peaks in high temps around the edges of Winter are a little concerning for annual snow/cold, imo. 

1/26/2024, Washington DC hit 80F.. that was the first time it ever did 80s late Nov - late February.. crushed it by a month!

Do we hit 90F in DC sometime 4/4-7?  80F this Saturday. 

October and November have had 80s lately. 

March 2012 was an interesting turn, as many places in the Mid-Atlantic hit 90F. Since then overall snowfall has been down 2012-2025. 

Always look forward to your input! Some crazy stats on DC. Especially the 80 in Jan - while we have had 60s in Jan before, nothing close to that. We actually havent hit 50 in Jan in 4 years. Looks like summer like warmth in the mid atlantic while the far northern tier gets a winter storm. I dont worry about annual cold/snow here and the edges, as we still get very early and late snows. My big thing is keeping the winter fun and deep winter periods from mid-November to mid-March. My bigger soapbox, and I KNOW itll change one of these years soon, is the wildness of how we havent had a great December since 2017. We have had several white Christmases since then, but as a whole, have to go back to 2017 to get a great December! Only 1 finished snowier than avg, and that was by 0.7". Every other month has had standouts since then.

In the 7 years since that snowy winter of 2017-18....

October- 4 of 7 with snow, 1 being measurable

November- 6 of 7 snowier than avg
December- 1 of 7 snowier than avg
January- 2 of 7 snowier than avg
February- 3 of 7 snowier than avg
March- 1 of 7 snowier than avg
April- 3 of 6 snowier than avg

May- 3 of 6 with snow, 1 being measurable
 

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On 3/26/2025 at 1:08 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In March the NAO correlated warmer.. March pretty much neutralized the cold anomalies from DJF on the 30-year average, I guess saving my Winter forecast, but this Pacific-Atlantic correlation of +NAO/+PNA/-EPO and -NAO/-PNA/+EPO continues to hit. I saw it happen many times this Winter, when one index would shift, they all would shift.. I've estimated about a 0.40 correlation in the pattern since 2019, and 0.30 correlation since 2013. 

Also if you look at Europe's warming trend over the last few decades it's incredible! It's not like the US where there was snow 2009-2016, then not 2016-2024, etc.. it's a straight line down in places like Germany. That's because the Winter NAO has been positive since 2011-2012. 85% of the time since then!  Say what you want about a warm US pattern despite -epo/+pna/-ao this year, but the NAO was very positive and that was a warm Winter variable! 

Yea, it has been like pulling teeth to get any -NAO winter seasons for a couple of decades now....while I do agree with Larry that the solar cycle is a factor (min favored for -NAO), I also think CC maybe affecting the Atlantic pressure pattern.

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On 3/26/2025 at 1:17 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

These peaks in high temps around the edges of Winter are a little concerning for annual snow/cold, imo. 

1/26/2024, Washington DC hit 80F.. that was the first time it ever did 80s late Nov - late February.. crushed it by a month!

Do we hit 90F in DC sometime 4/4-7?  80F this Saturday. 

October and November have had 80s lately. 

March 2012 was an interesting turn, as many places in the Mid-Atlantic hit 90F. Since then overall snowfall has been down 2012-2025. 

Not quite sure how it all works in Germany...I know obviously the basics of -NAO is colder, but from a snow-perspective, the midwest/Great Lakes often get more snow with a +NAO in winter. Its the fringe parts of the season (ie Nov/Mar-Apr) when we root on -NAO. A DJF -NAO usually screams suppression so we have to rely soley on NW flow. Im not sure if the same can be said for new england wrt the benefits of -NAO vs +NAO. And Im really not well-versed at all in the climate of Germany.  

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it has been like pulling teeth to get any -NAO winter seasons for a couple of decades now....while I do agree with Larry that the solar cycle is a factor (min favored for -NAO), I also think CC maybe affecting the Atlantic pressure pattern.

We've been getting -NAO's in the Summer..

This is what it's been.. expansion of the Hadley Cell in the Northern Hemisphere, amped is a -PNA/+WPO pattern in the Pacific, and +NAO in the Atlantic

2aaa-8.png

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Even since Winter 18-19, we've been getting this huge -PNA/+NAO pattern.. it's actually -AAM

2aaa-9.png

I love this next image, because it covers a 300-month consecutive period over 25 years.. this is the 12-month total May-Apr 1999 to 2024.. When 20% of the dataset is hit like this over a consecutive period, there is a >95% chance that the max anomaly would be over the Poles.. but we have been in a La Nina base state generally since the 97-98 Super El Nino

3-10.png

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SOI has been positive every day for more than a month now.

SOI Dashboard | LongPaddock | Queensland Government

SOI led this time last year, that the La Nina would not go strong. It seems to be having the same effect over the last few weeks.. 

It's also been positive 7 months in a row, including March.  2020-2023 it was positive 37 months in a row. 

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