40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 La Nina is the early betting favorite, but I am far from convinced. I would not be shocked to see a weaker El Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 There is still a lot of cold water in the ENSO subsurface. Here is a time sensitive map: Last year at this time, strong cold anomalies had already taken over the subsurface at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Does a February Nino 1+2 spike precede El Nino? A lot of people are claiming that an El Nino for 25-26 is underway because Nino 1+2 is near +1.0c right now on some readings. February '25 is the month where it went moderately positive. I don't see this correlation to later in the year on the roll forward, although that is a high correlation for +SSTAs near Asia and in the Atlantic. Nino 3/3.4 are 0.0 correlation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: La Nina is the early betting favorite, but I am far from convinced. I would not be shocked to see a weaker El Nino. Cansips last year was predicting a strong Niña at this point and other modeling was weak to moderate. So everything was too cold since a 5 trimonthly Niña looks doubtful. So predictions at this point are pretty much a cr@p shoot imho. That said, for the sole purpose of making an early "guess", I'll go with a warm La Nada or weak Niño. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Does a February Nino 1+2 spike precede El Nino? A lot of people are claiming that an El Nino for 25-26 is underway because Nino 1+2 is near +1.0c right now on some readings. February '25 is the month where it went moderately positive. I don't see this correlation to later in the year on the roll forward, although that is a high correlation for +SSTAs near Asia and in the Atlantic. Nino 3/3.4 are 0.0 correlation. I wasn't even referring to that.....I'm just considering the fact that we just came off of a triple deep La Nina two years ago and another weak one this year. Looking back historically, I highly doubt another one next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 The Euro plume last February had the correct idea for the Fall. Same simulation shows an El Nino Fall 2025. We're way way way overdue for a meaningfully wet year out here. I don't think we've had a 12 month period more than 10% above average for precipitation in over a decade. When Nino 1.2 is in the opposite phase of the PDO, the PDO tends to decay toward Nino 1.2, so we've seen ongoing weakening of the -PDO, and that should continue. I don't really consider this event a La Nina. We had atmospheric La Nina conditions for small parts of the winter, but it never sustained from Fall to Spring like in a real event. This winter felt a lot more like a cold Neutral, in terms of where the cold and precipitation went. Cold neutrals tend to be very wet in the South, La Ninas tend to be very dry there. US also tends to have pretty cold winters around the major moves in the PDO cycle (2013-14, 2014-15 after a run of very -years, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79, etc etc) 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 8 hours ago, raindancewx said: The Euro plume last February had the correct idea for the Fall. Same simulation shows an El Nino Fall 2025. We're way way way overdue for a meaningfully wet year out here. I don't think we've had a 12 month period more than 10% above average for precipitation in over a decade. When Nino 1.2 is in the opposite phase of the PDO, the PDO tends to decay toward Nino 1.2, so we've seen ongoing weakening of the -PDO, and that should continue. I don't really consider this event a La Nina. We had atmospheric La Nina conditions for small parts of the winter, but it never sustained from Fall to Spring like in a real event. This winter felt a lot more like a cold Neutral, in terms of where the cold and precipitation went. Cold neutrals tend to be very wet in the South, La Ninas tend to be very dry there. US also tends to have pretty cold winters around the major moves in the PDO cycle (2013-14, 2014-15 after a run of very -years, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79, etc etc) If we get this, then the Nino 1+2 is going to be somewhere near +3 for 2025-26. We'd get the warmest year on record for 2026, but we'd correct to a strong la nina in 2026-27 (like in 2009-10 -> 2010-11). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 La Nina is the early betting favorite, but I am far from convinced. I would not be shocked to see a weaker El Nino. I also doubt another Nina, however I can see a cold-neutral/La Nada. As of right now, I don’t think we see a Nino, but it’s extremely early obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I also doubt another Nina, however I can see a cold-neutral/La Nada. As of right now, I don’t think we see a Nino, but it’s extremely early obviously I could certainly see ENSO neutral. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 10 hours ago, raindancewx said: The Euro plume last February had the correct idea for the Fall. Same simulation shows an El Nino Fall 2025. We're way way way overdue for a meaningfully wet year out here. I don't think we've had a 12 month period more than 10% above average for precipitation in over a decade. When Nino 1.2 is in the opposite phase of the PDO, the PDO tends to decay toward Nino 1.2, so we've seen ongoing weakening of the -PDO, and that should continue. I don't really consider this event a La Nina. We had atmospheric La Nina conditions for small parts of the winter, but it never sustained from Fall to Spring like in a real event. This winter felt a lot more like a cold Neutral, in terms of where the cold and precipitation went. Cold neutrals tend to be very wet in the South, La Ninas tend to be very dry there. US also tends to have pretty cold winters around the major moves in the PDO cycle (2013-14, 2014-15 after a run of very -years, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79, etc etc) Same page on much of this..in fact, I was thinking of the phase switch of the mid to late 70s just yesterday. Great job on the 2013 analog BTW....the snowfall was certainly far less in the NE, but that is a crap shoot. I didn't see your maps, but I am guessing that you had the cold se idea that everyone missed. I def. factored that season in, but clearly not heavily enough since I was too warm. I expected a cold stretch mid season, but December and February were colder than I thought. La Nina was marginal...I can see a case either way...but bottom line is that it was weaker, and weak events have greater variance, obviously. My idea concerning the ultimate intensity and orientation of La Nina worked out very well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 22 hours ago, mitchnick said: Cansips last year was predicting a strong Niña at this point and other modeling was weak to moderate. So everything was too cold since a 5 trimonthly Niña looks doubtful. So predictions at this point are pretty much a cr@p shoot imho. That said, for the sole purpose of making an early "guess", I'll go with a warm La Nada or weak Niño. CANSIPS actually had the best seasonal forecast in terms of the pattern...I recal it was consistently the coldest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 We have only had ENSO Neutral 7 of the last 31 years, and that even counts last Winter as ENSO Neutral. We've only had 2-consecutive ENSO Neutral years 1 time since 1994 (12-13, 13-14). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We have only had ENSO Neutral 7 of the last 31 years, and that even counts last Winter as ENSO Neutral. We've only had 2-consecutive ENSO Neutral years 1 time since 1994 (12-13, 13-14). The ENSO neutral period that started in 2012 was the last real sustained ENSO neutral period. You could even argue that 14-15 was an ENSO neutral season, as the (super) el nino didn't really form until the season was just about over. If 25-26 stays ENSO neutral, I could see a similar sustained ENSO neutral until the inevitable strong/super el nino forms in 27-28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 22 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: The ENSO neutral period that started in 2012 was the last real sustained ENSO neutral period. You could even argue that 14-15 was an ENSO neutral season, as the (super) el nino didn't really form until the season was just about over. If 25-26 stays ENSO neutral, I could see a similar sustained ENSO neutral until the inevitable strong/super el nino forms in 27-28. 2014-15 was a weak El Nino. I consider 2024-25 to be a cold neutral season and I'd lean heavy towards another neutral season next year given the current subsurface. Based on history, 2026-27 may likely be the next El Nino, possibly moderate, with potentially another weak-mod El Nino in 2027-28 similar to the late 60s/late 80s evolution. If current predictions hold, taking into account solar cycle progression, I'd argue for the next official La Nina to be 2028-29. Until then I don't think we'll see any La Nina's. And I'd argue against any super/strong El Nino until the next decade. There's never been a time where we've seen 2 strong/super El Nino's within a span of 5 years. The closest we got was 7 years (1965-66 and then 1972-73). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 4 hours ago, Snowstorms said: 2014-15 was a weak El Nino. I consider 2024-25 to be a cold neutral season and I'd lean heavy towards another neutral season next year given the current subsurface. Based on history, 2026-27 may likely be the next El Nino, possibly moderate, with potentially another weak-mod El Nino in 2027-28 similar to the late 60s/late 80s evolution. If current predictions hold, taking into account solar cycle progression, I'd argue for the next official La Nina to be 2028-29. Until then I don't think we'll see any La Nina's. And I'd argue against any super/strong El Nino until the next decade. There's never been a time where we've seen 2 strong/super El Nino's within a span of 5 years. The closest we got was 7 years (1965-66 and then 1972-73). Not really. We had a strong el nino in 1982-83, then the double-year event in 1986-88, and again in 1991-92. That's 3 el nino events in a 10-year span. Then another 6-year gap between the 1991-92 event and 1997-98 (a 4th in just over 15 years). 2009-10 and 2015-16 is another 6-year gap. The common theme with these strong/super el ninos was either a +PDO (like we had for most of the 80s and 90s) or a flip to +PDO (which is what happened in the years leading up to 2015-16). If we can get a flip to +PDO in the next few years, I think a super el nino in 2027-28 can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Not really. We had a strong el nino in 1982-83, then the double-year event in 1986-88, and again in 1991-92. That's 3 el nino events in a 10-year span. Then another 6-year gap between the 1991-92 event and 1997-98 (a 4th in just over 15 years). 2009-10 and 2015-16 is another 6-year gap. The common theme with these strong/super el ninos was either a +PDO (like we had for most of the 80s and 90s) or a flip to +PDO (which is what happened in the years leading up to 2015-16). If we can get a flip to +PDO in the next few years, I think a super el nino in 2027-28 can happen. What about El Niños of 1994-5 and 2014-5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 7 hours ago, GaWx said: What about El Niños of 1994-5 and 2014-5? 94-95 was a moderate el nino. 14-15 was a borderline warm neutral/weak el nino. If you consider it an el nino, it's just a piggy back of the incoming super el nino of 15-16. (19-20 was another piggy back borderline warm neutral/weak el nino, but the other direction - piggy backing off the previous year's el nino, and led into a la nina the following year.) The only strong/super el ninos in the last 75 years are 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-88, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:11 PM On 2/25/2025 at 12:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: La Nina is the early betting favorite, but I am far from convinced. I would not be shocked to see a weaker El Nino. I beat you to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Saturday at 03:25 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:25 PM 22 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: I beat you to it Nothing personal, Barry.....but I usually don't scroll back to the previous fall to seek out ENSO threads pertaining to the next year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Saturday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:28 PM Does a relative +PNA Winter precede a later year El Nino? We had an anomalous, relatively positive, PNA this Winter with strong -PDO conditions in the Fall and a borderline Weak La Nina. The thought is, does the atmosphere lead ENSO? Based on 75 years of historical data, the answer is no. Here is the +10 month condition ENSO SSTs with earlier in the year PNA (both pos and neg considered, but the map default is positive) ENSO +10 months after a Winter +PNA Slight opposite correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted Saturday at 04:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:12 PM Good to see my analog method still works. I wasn't crazy for thinking the past winter would be like 2013-14. I never showed my forecast here, but the idea was essentially a bunch of years with alternating waves of expansive record warmth, brief record cold, and more concentrated modest cold. So I expected the 2013-14 aspect of the pattern to persist with less consistency and severity but I expected that was the closest analog overall. Locally I forecast three weeks of severe cold and ten weeks of near-record to record warmth which worked pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:22 PM On 2/28/2025 at 6:15 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said: 94-95 was a moderate el nino. 14-15 was a borderline warm neutral/weak el nino. If you consider it an el nino, it's just a piggy back of the incoming super el nino of 15-16. (19-20 was another piggy back borderline warm neutral/weak el nino, but the other direction - piggy backing off the previous year's el nino, and led into a la nina the following year.) The only strong/super el ninos in the last 75 years are 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-88, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24. 2002-03 wasn't strong? it was borderline strong I think? same strength as 2009-10 but colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Saturday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:43 PM Does a March Stratosphere warming precede a later year El Nino? There is actually a cold 10mb March correlation to following the Fall's +ENSO (map default is positive, + and - included). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:15 PM Today's updated March Cansips looking warm neutral to me. Here's a link to December. You can scroll forward from there. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025030100&fh=9 On a different note, looks like a decent amount of blocking through the winter with cold along the northern tier into the MA fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted Saturday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:39 PM I could see a situation where the PDO continues to rise overall and we end up with a warm neutral winter followed by a Nino the following winter similar to the 2013-2016 timeframe, just not to that extreme. I wouldn't expect a super Nino in 26-27. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted Sunday at 04:58 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:58 AM 12 hours ago, LibertyBell said: 2002-03 wasn't strong? it was borderline strong I think? same strength as 2009-10 but colder? 2002-03 was similar to 2009-10, but 02-03 falls short of 1.5 benchmark on most measures, while 09-10 clears the 1.5 benchmark on most (ONI, RONI). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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