2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

La Nina is the early betting favorite, but I am far from convinced. I would not be shocked to see a weaker El Nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There is still a lot of cold water in the ENSO subsurface. Here is a time sensitive map:

Last year at this time, strong cold anomalies had already taken over the subsurface at this time. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Does a February Nino 1+2 spike precede El Nino?

A lot of people are claiming that an El Nino for 25-26 is underway because Nino 1+2 is near +1.0c right now on some readings. February '25 is the month where it went moderately positive. 

I don't see this correlation to later in the year on the roll forward, although that is a high correlation for +SSTAs near Asia and in the Atlantic. Nino 3/3.4 are 0.0 correlation. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

La Nina is the early betting favorite, but I am far from convinced. I would not be shocked to see a weaker El Nino.

Cansips last year was predicting a strong Niña at this point and other modeling was weak to moderate. So everything was too cold since a 5 trimonthly Niña looks doubtful. So predictions at this point are pretty much a cr@p shoot imho. That said, for the sole purpose of making an early "guess", I'll go with a warm La Nada or weak Niño. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Does a February Nino 1+2 spike precede El Nino?

A lot of people are claiming that an El Nino for 25-26 is underway because Nino 1+2 is near +1.0c right now on some readings. February '25 is the month where it went moderately positive. 

I don't see this correlation to later in the year on the roll forward, although that is a high correlation for +SSTAs near Asia and in the Atlantic. Nino 3/3.4 are 0.0 correlation. 

I wasn't even referring to that.....I'm just considering the fact that we just came off of a triple deep La Nina two years ago and another weak one this year. Looking back historically, I highly doubt another one next year.

[raindancewx]

The Euro plume last February had the correct idea for the Fall. Same simulation shows an El Nino Fall 2025. We're way way way overdue for a meaningfully wet year out here. I don't think we've had a 12 month period more than 10% above average for precipitation in over a decade.

When Nino 1.2 is in the opposite phase of the PDO, the PDO tends to decay toward Nino 1.2, so we've seen ongoing weakening of the -PDO, and that should continue. I don't really consider this event a La Nina. We had atmospheric La Nina conditions for small parts of the winter, but it never sustained from Fall to Spring like in a real event. This winter felt a lot more like a cold Neutral, in terms of where the cold and precipitation went. Cold neutrals tend to be very wet in the South, La Ninas tend to be very dry there. US also tends to have pretty cold winters around the major moves in the PDO cycle (2013-14, 2014-15 after a run of very -years, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79, etc etc)

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Euro plume last February had the correct idea for the Fall. Same simulation shows an El Nino Fall 2025. We're way way way overdue for a meaningfully wet year out here. I don't think we've had a 12 month period more than 10% above average for precipitation in over a decade.

When Nino 1.2 is in the opposite phase of the PDO, the PDO tends to decay toward Nino 1.2, so we've seen ongoing weakening of the -PDO, and that should continue. I don't really consider this event a La Nina. We had atmospheric La Nina conditions for small parts of the winter, but it never sustained from Fall to Spring like in a real event. This winter felt a lot more like a cold Neutral, in terms of where the cold and precipitation went. Cold neutrals tend to be very wet in the South, La Ninas tend to be very dry there. US also tends to have pretty cold winters around the major moves in the PDO cycle (2013-14, 2014-15 after a run of very -years, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79, etc etc)

If we get this, then the Nino 1+2 is going to be somewhere near +3 for 2025-26. We'd get the warmest year on record for 2026, but we'd correct to a strong la nina in 2026-27 (like in 2009-10 -> 2010-11).

[snowman19]

La Nina is the early betting favorite, but I am far from convinced. I would not be shocked to see a weaker El Nino.

I also doubt another Nina, however I can see a cold-neutral/La Nada. As of right now, I don’t think we see a Nino, but it’s extremely early obviously 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I also doubt another Nina, however I can see a cold-neutral/La Nada. As of right now, I don’t think we see a Nino, but it’s extremely early obviously 
 

I could certainly see ENSO neutral.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Euro plume last February had the correct idea for the Fall. Same simulation shows an El Nino Fall 2025. We're way way way overdue for a meaningfully wet year out here. I don't think we've had a 12 month period more than 10% above average for precipitation in over a decade.

When Nino 1.2 is in the opposite phase of the PDO, the PDO tends to decay toward Nino 1.2, so we've seen ongoing weakening of the -PDO, and that should continue. I don't really consider this event a La Nina. We had atmospheric La Nina conditions for small parts of the winter, but it never sustained from Fall to Spring like in a real event. This winter felt a lot more like a cold Neutral, in terms of where the cold and precipitation went. Cold neutrals tend to be very wet in the South, La Ninas tend to be very dry there. US also tends to have pretty cold winters around the major moves in the PDO cycle (2013-14, 2014-15 after a run of very -years, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79, etc etc)

Same page on much of this..in fact, I was thinking of the phase switch of the mid to late 70s just yesterday.

Great job on the 2013 analog BTW....the snowfall was certainly far less in the NE, but that is a crap shoot. I didn't see your maps, but I am guessing that you had the cold se idea that everyone missed. 

I def. factored that season in, but clearly not heavily enough since I was too warm. I expected  a cold stretch mid season, but December and February were colder than I thought.

 

La Nina was marginal...I can see a case either way...but bottom line is that it was weaker, and weak events have greater variance, obviously. My idea concerning the ultimate intensity and orientation of La Nina worked out very well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cansips last year was predicting a strong Niña at this point and other modeling was weak to moderate. So everything was too cold since a 5 trimonthly Niña looks doubtful. So predictions at this point are pretty much a cr@p shoot imho. That said, for the sole purpose of making an early "guess", I'll go with a warm La Nada or weak Niño. 

CANSIPS actually had the best seasonal forecast in terms of the pattern...I recal it was consistently the coldest guidance.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We have only had ENSO Neutral 7 of the last 31 years, and that even counts last Winter as ENSO Neutral.  We've only had 2-consecutive ENSO Neutral years 1 time since 1994 (12-13, 13-14). 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We have only had ENSO Neutral 7 of the last 31 years, and that even counts last Winter as ENSO Neutral.  We've only had 2-consecutive ENSO Neutral years 1 time since 1994 (12-13, 13-14). 

The ENSO neutral period that started in 2012 was the last real sustained ENSO neutral period. You could even argue that 14-15 was an ENSO neutral season, as the (super) el nino didn't really form until the season was just about over. If 25-26 stays ENSO neutral, I could see a similar sustained ENSO neutral until the inevitable strong/super el nino forms in 27-28.

[Snowstorms]

22 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The ENSO neutral period that started in 2012 was the last real sustained ENSO neutral period. You could even argue that 14-15 was an ENSO neutral season, as the (super) el nino didn't really form until the season was just about over. If 25-26 stays ENSO neutral, I could see a similar sustained ENSO neutral until the inevitable strong/super el nino forms in 27-28.

2014-15 was a weak El Nino. I consider 2024-25 to be a cold neutral season and I'd lean heavy towards another neutral season next year given the current subsurface. Based on history, 2026-27 may likely be the next El Nino, possibly moderate, with potentially another weak-mod El Nino in 2027-28 similar to the late 60s/late 80s evolution. If current predictions hold, taking into account solar cycle progression, I'd argue for the next official La Nina to be 2028-29. Until then I don't think we'll see any La Nina's. 

And I'd argue against any super/strong El Nino until the next decade. There's never been a time where we've seen 2 strong/super El Nino's within a span of 5 years. The closest we got was 7 years (1965-66 and then 1972-73). 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

2014-15 was a weak El Nino. I consider 2024-25 to be a cold neutral season and I'd lean heavy towards another neutral season next year given the current subsurface. Based on history, 2026-27 may likely be the next El Nino, possibly moderate, with potentially another weak-mod El Nino in 2027-28 similar to the late 60s/late 80s evolution. If current predictions hold, taking into account solar cycle progression, I'd argue for the next official La Nina to be 2028-29. Until then I don't think we'll see any La Nina's. 

And I'd argue against any super/strong El Nino until the next decade. There's never been a time where we've seen 2 strong/super El Nino's within a span of 5 years. The closest we got was 7 years (1965-66 and then 1972-73). 

 

Not really. We had a strong el nino in 1982-83, then the double-year event in 1986-88, and again in 1991-92. That's 3 el nino events in a 10-year span. Then another 6-year gap between the 1991-92 event and 1997-98 (a 4th in just over 15 years). 2009-10 and 2015-16 is another 6-year gap.

The common theme with these strong/super el ninos was either a +PDO (like we had for most of the 80s and 90s) or a flip to +PDO (which is what happened in the years leading up to 2015-16). If we can get a flip to +PDO in the next few years, I think a super el nino in 2027-28 can happen.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Not really. We had a strong el nino in 1982-83, then the double-year event in 1986-88, and again in 1991-92. That's 3 el nino events in a 10-year span. Then another 6-year gap between the 1991-92 event and 1997-98 (a 4th in just over 15 years). 2009-10 and 2015-16 is another 6-year gap.

The common theme with these strong/super el ninos was either a +PDO (like we had for most of the 80s and 90s) or a flip to +PDO (which is what happened in the years leading up to 2015-16). If we can get a flip to +PDO in the next few years, I think a super el nino in 2027-28 can happen.

What about El Niños of 1994-5 and 2014-5?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

What about El Niños of 1994-5 and 2014-5?

94-95 was a moderate el nino. 14-15 was a borderline warm neutral/weak el nino. If you consider it an el nino, it's just a piggy back of the incoming super el nino of 15-16. (19-20 was another piggy back borderline warm neutral/weak el nino, but the other direction - piggy backing off the previous year's el nino, and led into a la nina the following year.)

The only strong/super el ninos in the last 75 years are 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-88, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24.