Spring ‘25 Severe Banter

[largetornado]

Rumblings of a multi day severe setup around march 4th starting the the plains with a 991 GL cutter the following day. 
 

I have a gut feeling we are in for a nasty severe wx season. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Interesting. A lot of the analogs being pulled by the various TwXers I'm seeing are among the worst springs for chasing in my adult life (2006, 2009 and 2018). However this late winter has not really played out like any of those years locally IMO.

[Spartman]

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Interesting. A lot of the analogs being pulled by the various TwXers I'm seeing are among the worst springs for chasing in my adult life (2006, 2009 and 2018). However this late winter has not really played out like any of those years locally IMO.

BAM Weather bringing up 2011

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1893988404519481423

[A-L-E-K]

bit too early imby, hoping for an active year tho

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Interesting. A lot of the analogs being pulled by the various TwXers I'm seeing are among the worst springs for chasing in my adult life (2006, 2009 and 2018). However this late winter has not really played out like any of those years locally IMO.

I don't see any of those years being analogs for this year at all.

[Stebo]

20 minutes ago, Spartman said:

BAM Weather bringing up 2011

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1893988404519481423

This is one year I do see being a potential analog though.

[Stebo]

See the thing that is interesting is that we are seeing cooling in the middle part of the Pacific in the ENSO regions while having warming near South America

 

This leads to a very positive Trans-Nino Index, which is very conducive to severe in the US, combine that with the -PDO (cooling along Alaska/California along with warmth to the west of it, and an above average Gulf of Mexico. You present a very ripe pattern for western US troughing and strong return flow into the middle part of the country, with above normal moisture. Many of your first year Ninas that decay or weaken in this time frame tend to be blockbuster years. There are exceptions of 2006 but this winter/spring has not played out like that year.

[Chicago Storm]

BAM Weather bringing up 2011
https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1893988404519481423

everyone brings up 2011 every single year.

[Stebo]

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

everyone brings up 2011 every single year.

There is merit this year considering the things I mentioned above.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

bit too early imby, hoping for an active year tho

2/28/17
Winterset 2022
2/8/24

There are no rules anymore. That said, the upcoming pattern does not look favorable for an abnormally far north early season severe wx event in the near term.

[sbnwx85]

Day 2 bullseye

[Jackstraw]

Its been so long for some good storms around here it'd be like chasing a girl when I was 14. Wouldn't know what to do once I got one