largetornado Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Rumblings of a multi day severe setup around march 4th starting the the plains with a 991 GL cutter the following day. I have a gut feeling we are in for a nasty severe wx season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Interesting. A lot of the analogs being pulled by the various TwXers I'm seeing are among the worst springs for chasing in my adult life (2006, 2009 and 2018). However this late winter has not really played out like any of those years locally IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Interesting. A lot of the analogs being pulled by the various TwXers I'm seeing are among the worst springs for chasing in my adult life (2006, 2009 and 2018). However this late winter has not really played out like any of those years locally IMO. BAM Weather bringing up 2011 https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1893988404519481423 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 bit too early imby, hoping for an active year tho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Interesting. A lot of the analogs being pulled by the various TwXers I'm seeing are among the worst springs for chasing in my adult life (2006, 2009 and 2018). However this late winter has not really played out like any of those years locally IMO. I don't see any of those years being analogs for this year at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 20 minutes ago, Spartman said: BAM Weather bringing up 2011 https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1893988404519481423 This is one year I do see being a potential analog though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 See the thing that is interesting is that we are seeing cooling in the middle part of the Pacific in the ENSO regions while having warming near South America This leads to a very positive Trans-Nino Index, which is very conducive to severe in the US, combine that with the -PDO (cooling along Alaska/California along with warmth to the west of it, and an above average Gulf of Mexico. You present a very ripe pattern for western US troughing and strong return flow into the middle part of the country, with above normal moisture. Many of your first year Ninas that decay or weaken in this time frame tend to be blockbuster years. There are exceptions of 2006 but this winter/spring has not played out like that year. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 BAM Weather bringing up 2011https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1893988404519481423everyone brings up 2011 every single year. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: everyone brings up 2011 every single year. There is merit this year considering the things I mentioned above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: bit too early imby, hoping for an active year tho 2/28/17 Winterset 2022 2/8/24 There are no rules anymore. That said, the upcoming pattern does not look favorable for an abnormally far north early season severe wx event in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Day 2 bullseye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Its been so long for some good storms around here it'd be like chasing a girl when I was 14. Wouldn't know what to do once I got one 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 I like sturms. Sometimes I drive around to look at them. I'm mainly looking for the ones that spin really fast, but even though I usually don't see that I usually see at least a little something cool and/or photogenic. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 GFS sounding for illinois at 348 hours. not really that note worthy...but the one thing that caught my eye are the lapse rates. sign of things to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 More of my past history of driving around after storms in the region: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted Wednesday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:15 PM Last one. Starts with a free car wash courtesy of the Great Midwest Derecho of 8/10/2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted Wednesday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:02 PM Quoting myself from the medium/LR thread: 6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Hoping the one later next week has less moisture issues and can at least pull off a respectable cold-core potential somewhere in the region. So much funny stuff has happened in that department in this region absurdly early in the season in recent years (from two consecutive years with a March Iowa EF4 to a 26-mile EF2 in Wisconsin on February 8th) it's almost become an expectation. This week's system was a bit of a reality check. Last night's 0Z GFS was a favorable look in that regard, with some moisture being tugged back west beneath quite cold mid/upper levels. Subsequent runs slightly less so, with a narrower wavelength to the trough and consequent more meridional flow in the exit region. Long way to go with this one, but something should happen late next week. The floor is probably something similar to what's occurring yesterday/today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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