Discussion Of Possible Winter Storm (3/1/25 - 3/3/25)

[Northof78]

For the past several days, many models have been showing some sort of winter storm taking shape after a fresh injection of cold air in the 3/1/25 - 3/3/25 time period. Chances are there for a meaningful winter storm impact (ice, sleet, snow) and in some areas rain. 

Latest 12z GFS snow map

Latest GFS depiction @ height of storm/warmest frame...

[JetsPens87]

Just to confirm -

This is 9 days away right?

[Northof78]

5 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Just to confirm -

This is 9 days away right?

7.5 or so until the start of period, and has been a consistent period on the models for several days. No details and no 'Mega-Blizzard' advertised unlike the last one 

[JetsPens87]

Thanks. I'll be back in 4 days.

[Franklin0529]

9 day threads now?? Smh

[Northof78]

Unlike the last 'non-storm' , the underlying pattern strongly supports a storm of some sort and there would unlikely be supression to the south/nothing...

[eduggs]

There are at least 3 shortwaves beginning on or around Thurs. Feb 27 that could conceivably bring precipitation to our area.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Unlike the last 'non-storm' , the underlying pattern strongly supports a storm of some sort and there would unlikely be supression to the south/nothing...

So probably a SWFE/cutter that would be good for upstate NY and New England again, messy sleet to rain here. Got it. I’m on my tippy toes in anticipation. And also-more than a week out. 

[MJO812]

Just now, jm1220 said:

So probably a SWFE/cutter that would be good for upstate NY and New England again, messy sleet to rain here. Got it. I’m on my tippy toes in anticipation. And also-more than a week out. 

You are always thinking rain.  Maybe a good mindset.

[MorristownWx]

I think a fair compromise would just be to take winter storm out of the headline to just be “potential coastal”. At this point it’s far more likely we’re looking wet than white. Just semantics but may cut down on the people rightfully skeptical about a potential snow opportunity 8-10 days out 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Just to confirm -

This is 9 days away right?

Well, at least he mentioned the possibility of rain lol

 

[eduggs]

I dislike long range operational charts, but what the hell.

[eduggs]

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

9 day threads now?? Smh

Wait till 2 days 

[Jt17]

Wait till 2 days 

3/1 is 7 days from now. Feb is a short month messing with people's heads.


.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

You are always thinking rain.  Maybe a good mindset.

Looking at the GFS/Euro setup for the possible event it looks entirely northern stream driven with a primary going too far north as a result. There's a high and cold air to the north initially but any confluence is rushed out to the NE so it gets scoured out at our latitude and the low tracks too far north. It ends up as some kind of SWFE/clipper hybrid which is great for the places SWFEs are usually good for. It will change 10 times over but the same fast northern stream driven pattern will likely be crap here like it has been-cold/dry to warming whenever a storm comes in back to cold/dry.

[Franklin0529]

3 hours ago, Jt17 said:

3/1 is 7 days from now. Feb is a short month messing with people's heads.


.

I know how many days are in the month thanks. The first is actually 8 days away

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, Northof78 said:

Unlike the last 'non-storm' , the underlying pattern strongly supports a storm of some sort and there would unlikely be supression to the south/nothing...

There was a storm, it was just a bit quicker than forecast, and therefore did not phase with the northern energy that gave us flurries yesterday.  

[psv88]

How much for Philly?

[Nibor]

5 hours ago, Northof78 said:

7.5 or so until the start of period, and has been a consistent period on the models for several days. No details and no 'Mega-Blizzard' advertised unlike the last one 

[WestBabylonWeather]

43 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

There was a storm, it was just a bit quicker than forecast, and therefore did not phase with the northern energy that gave us flurries yesterday.  

I will never recover from VA beach getting 3 times more than me in any one event this year because it was too fast. 

[jm1220]

57 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I will never recover from VA beach getting 3 times more than me in any one event this year because it was too fast. 

Wait til you find out what happened in Pensacola, Little Rock and New Orleans with other storms this winter.

Most likely Norfolk ends up with more than Central Park this winter. That may have happened once in 1979-80 which was a Nino winter with a strong subtropical jet, not a Nina. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wait til you find out what happened in Pensacola, Little Rock and New Orleans with other storms this winter.

Most likely Norfolk ends up with more than Central Park this winter. That may have happened once in 1979-80 which was a Nino winter with a strong subtropical jet, not a Nina. 

Probably 88-89 as well

[Sampson]

It’s coming 

[psv88]

Haven’t used the snowblower yet. The one storm where we got 5” I woke up and my neighbor had cleared my driveway. Wouldn’t mind another storm so I could burn the gas in the tank 

[jm1220]

44 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Haven’t used the snowblower yet. The one storm where we got 5” I woke up and my neighbor had cleared my driveway. Wouldn’t mind another storm so I could burn the gas in the tank 

Cleared all the asphalt dug up by the plow?

That's the storm where I was in Long Beach and had 2.5" snow/sleet mix. The Polar Bear plunge was fun and freezing but definitely plenty more when I got back home. I'm convinced after this winter the south shore is the worst snow pit in the Lower 48 other than Miami and coastal California. Maybe next winter will crush them too. 

I knew we had to pay for the bonanzas from 2000-18 but this is rough. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

It’s coming 

I think it’s just breathing heavy 

[Brasiluvsnow]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Wait till 2 days 

Geez I just noticed the avatar,,,,my bad,,,,,,,,,,,so maybe this has a shot even at over a week away - Let's Go Metsgo

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I have a better chance to be named the worlds sexiest man, than this storm has of coming to fruition. 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, Dark Star said:

There was a storm, it was just a bit quicker than forecast, and therefore did not phase with the northern energy that gave us flurries yesterday.  

so this means the southern stream was actually faster than the northern stream