March 2025

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We tend to lag areas at the same latitude due to the marine influence. So I get it with Pittsburg but the maps definitely off for the island especially. Even Bradfords (hopefully they will all be dead soon, pitiful tree) are just starting to swell right on the south shore.

My neighborhood lost tons of giant, old trees because of the tornado in September 2010. As a tree lover it was an epic disaster. 

I had four Bradfords around the corner of my house, two got destroyed from the storm, the other two had their crowns broken but they're still alive and growing! 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The reason that we had the westerly flow since December was due to all the Great Lakes cutters and coastal hugger storm tracks. But during the summer we don’t get so many windy storm and frontal passages as the storms get weaker. So the summer wind direction will be determined by more subtle influences like where the 500mb ridge axis sets up.

Over the last decade the ridge axis has become more elongated to the east of New England. So areas near the coast get more of a sea breeze influence. Back in the 2010 to 2013 era we had a Southeast Ridge which built more into the Great Lakes than to the east of New England. This allowed more SW to W flow around the Bermuda High. So the Westerly flow was a function of the ridge location rather than an active storm track to our west like this winter into early spring so far.

All the warm ups this spring so far have had more onshore flow influence with numerous 70° days west of the Hudson and cooler highs to the east. We’ll have to see if this pattern repeats again over the summer. One way it could get interrupted is if a strong drought feedback develops to our west allowing more ridging near the Great Lakes than a weak trough and higher heights east of New England. Still too early to tell if this will be the case yet. 

 

But there was also a longwave pattern that sustained the westerly flow from the strong Pac Jet that resulted from the sustained marine heatwave in the West Pac.

I saw something in the long term summer maps like what you mentioned as the areas west of us in the OV are predicted to have below normal rainfall.  If we develop a flow from that direction it would be able to bring a dry downsloping flow into our region from the SW that is directed into our region by the Bermuda High after passing over the OV.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Where are there leaves popping in our area? I see nothing. 

Unless I'm misunderstanding this map. 

That looks more like a tree pollen map than a leaf out map.

Pollen levels are a bit elevated right now and will only get worse from here =\

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s highly unlikely the 1300s event came from the Canary’s. That’s if it even was a tsunami. It’s possible it was surge related to 1,000 plus year hurricane or nor’easter. If it was a tsunami the possibility’s are endless, from a meteor hitting the Atlantic, a major earthquake in the Caribbean or off of Europe or some sort of marine landslide.

Thats how Chesapeake Bay was formed and part of that meteor broke off and hit just east of Toms River.  Can't be the same event though, I think that was much further back in time?

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That one is highly suspect in my opinion.  It’s next to impossible to maintain even a low end major with that much land interaction. As we saw with sandy NY harbor is extremely surge prone and therefore does not need major winds or pressure for a 15’ surge to form.

I think that storm was likely a stronger version of Isias. Maybe hitting the Carolina’s as a major then riding the coast while interacting with a trough. Producing enhanced winds on the east side that probably did gust over 100mph. But likely with a very disrupted core and skewed wind field. 

If that happened today, it would be horrific.  I wonder if there were any actual pressure readings from that storm? Even if it had Cat 3/4 pressure it still wouldn't necessarily be a Cat 3/4?

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

If that happened today, it would be horrific.  I wonder if there were any actual pressure readings from that storm? Even if it had Cat 3/4 pressure it still wouldn't necessarily be a Cat 3/4?

 

Yeah I fully agree that storm is a worst case scenario for the NY/NJ coast, far worse then Sandy as you have much greater wind impacts with similar or even greater surge. As far as pressure, that may be why it has been historically thought to be a cat 3/4. Again, using the Sandy example hurricanes at our latitude often have pressures much lower then generally associated with its maximum sustained winds if it were fully tropical. Sadly the only way to know for sure would be to go back in time.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah I fully agree that storm is a worst case scenario for the NY/NJ coast, far worse then Sandy as you have much greater wind impacts with similar or even greater surge. As far as pressure, that may be why it has been historically thought to be a cat 3/4. Again, using the Sandy example hurricanes at our latitude often have pressures much lower then generally associated with its maximum sustained winds if it were fully tropical. Sadly the only way to know for sure would be to go back in time.

Yes, I think there was a time when hurricane strength was determined by MSLP not wind speeds. And that storm could have been much worse even back then, they were lucky it came in at low tide. 

Even the 1944 hurricane was thought to be Cat 3 at landfall until it was reassessed.  It was reassessed down to Cat 2 wasn't it?

 

[SRRTA22]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

Pear trees are close to popping in Great Neck but haven’t yet.  Curious if NYC has any trees with leaves starting. 

No leaves popping yet in jersey City. I think the map is saying we're about 20 days late if I'm not mistaken?

[SRRTA22]

6 hours ago, Yanksfan said:

With this new climate we’re entering I wonder what a worst case scenario up here would be for a TC. High end cat 3 perhaps?

I strongly believe we're about 5-10 years away where a cat 4 is possible up this way

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

I strongly believe we're about 5-10 years away where a cat 4 is possible up this way

It's possible now just extremely unlikely. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I think there was a time when hurricane strength was determined by MSLP not wind speeds. And that storm could have been much worse even back then, they were lucky it came in at low tide. 

Even the 1944 hurricane was thought to be Cat 3 at landfall until it was reassessed.  It was reassessed down to Cat 2 wasn't it?

 

Cat 2 105mph into South Hampton. 
Speaking of historic Long Island hurricanes, the nature center at west end 2 at jones beach has some great photos of the damage to jones beach during the hurricane of 38. Pretty similar damage to what we saw with sandy, which is truly remarkable considering jones beach was on the weaker western side of 38. Meaning at the time of peak surge the winds would have been out the north east and then north and offshore. The damage was likely caused by the tremendous waves associated with the storm. I would love to have been on the second floor of the west bathhouse and witnessed those waves coming in to opposing 100mph gusts. Likely spraying a hundred feet or more into the air!

[lee59]

12 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

I strongly believe we're about 5-10 years away where a cat 4 is possible up this way

1938 hurricane gave Blue Hill Observatory south of Boston a wind gust of 186mph and sustained winds of 121mph. Blue Hill is elevated at 635ft.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Cat 2 105mph into South Hampton. 
Speaking of historic Long Island hurricanes, the nature center at west end 2 at jones beach has some great photos of the damage to jones beach during the hurricane of 38. Pretty similar damage to what we saw with sandy, which is truly remarkable considering jones beach was on the weaker western side of 38. Meaning at the time of peak surge the winds would have been out the north east and then north and offshore. The damage was likely caused by the tremendous waves associated with the storm. I would love to have been on the second floor of the west bathhouse and witnessed those waves coming in to opposing 100mph gusts. Likely spraying a hundred feet or more into the air!

Wild to think we might be *overdue* for another one of these, although we don't know what the return time of a behemoth like this should be, we've not seen anything like it since.

As a child, I remember how scary it was hearing news reports about Gloria the night before it was supposed to come in.  It was supposedly a Cat 4 abreast of Atlantic City, but of course we know that wasn't true and it was rapidly weakening and its eye was expanding as it approached our latitude. It probably wasn't even a Cat 4 near Cape Hatteras.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

1938 hurricane gave Blue Hill Observatory south of Boston a wind gust of 186mph and sustained winds of 121mph. Blue Hill is elevated at 635ft.

and even West Hampton Beach had sustained winds of 111 mph and gusts to 156 mph I think it was, so Cat 3 conditions were verified at sea level, which is a lot more than we can say for a lot of Cat 3s that make landfall in this era.

 

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wild to think we might be *overdue* for another one of these, although we don't know what the return time of a behemoth like this should be, we've not seen anything like it since.

As a child, I remember how scary it was hearing news reports about Gloria the night before it was supposed to come in.  It was supposedly a Cat 4 abreast of Atlantic City, but of course we know that wasn't true and it was rapidly weakening and its eye was expanding as it approached our latitude. It probably wasn't even a Cat 4 near Cape Hatteras.

 

 

Yes the hype for Gloria was intense.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

I strongly believe we're about 5-10 years away where a cat 4 is possible up this way

Army Corps of Engineers has projected that our waters can support up to a 145 mph sustained Cat 4.

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

No leaves popping yet in jersey City. I think the map is saying we're about 20 days late if I'm not mistaken?

I wonder how late the cherry blossoms will be? And the winter was better down in DC too....

 

[lee59]

The incredible thing is, Gloria is the last time a hurricane made landfall on Long Island, some 40 years ago

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wild to think we might be *overdue* for another one of these, although we don't know what the return time of a behemoth like this should be, we've not seen anything like it since.

As a child, I remember how scary it was hearing news reports about Gloria the night before it was supposed to come in.  It was supposedly a Cat 4 abreast of Atlantic City, but of course we know that wasn't true and it was rapidly weakening and its eye was expanding as it approached our latitude. It probably wasn't even a Cat 4 near Cape Hatteras.

 

 

Yeah, I was only three for Gloria, but it is my first weather memory. We evacuated south wantagh to my grandmothers in queens. Gloria had allot of similarities to 38 and 44 both in regards to strength and pressure while it was south east of North Carolina. So I understand the hype at the time. The difference between that hurricane and the formers is that it didn’t phase with the trough as cleanly and thus suffered from slower movement and land interaction which caused dry air entrainment destroying the southern side of the storm. The satellite pic in my profile shows that very well. It also hit at low tide. 
As far as the future, it will always take the perfect setup to get a major up here regardless of rising water temps. Too many land interaction issues based on our geography. Warmer waters enhance the risk but aren’t the end all when you are a 90 degree angle coast.

[lee59]

Gloria was definitely a weakened storm but there was plenty of wind damage, many streets impassable with downed trees and wires. I would say winds in Gloria and Sandy were similar on Long Island. Gloria was not nearly as bad as Sandy in New Jersey or NYC.  The tide flooding in Sandy much worse.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah, I was only three for Gloria, but it is my first weather memory. We evacuated south wantagh to my grandmothers in queens. Gloria had allot of similarities to 38 and 44 both in regards to strength and pressure while it was south east of North Carolina. So I understand the hype at the time. The difference between that hurricane and the formers is that it didn’t phase with the trough as cleanly and thus suffered from slower movement and land interaction which caused dry air entrainment destroying the southern side of the storm. The satellite pic in my profile shows that very well. It also hit at low tide. 
As far as the future, it will always take the perfect setup to get a major up here regardless of rising water temps. Too many land interaction issues based on our geography. Warmer waters enhance the risk but aren’t the end all when you are a 90 degree angle coast.

Yes and overall warmer temps all over the Atlantic Basin with strong Bermuda high pressure might actually direct more storms into the Gulf and Florida as we've been seeing, although in recent years we've seen the Bermuda high displaced farther north, which would increase the chances of one coming up this way.

 

I thought that Gloria was moving close to 70 mph at our latitude but perhaps that was wrong.  I do remember the eye really opened up at our latitude and we never got a backside of the hurricane except for some gusty winds with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.  But it was extremely rainy that morning and of course schools were closed.  We never closed schools for snow but we did for Gloria (completely understandable.)  I saw that the damage was much worse out over Suffolk County.  Lots of trees down!  Our damage was mostly flooding from the heavy rains.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, lee59 said:

Gloria was definitely a weakened storm but there was plenty of wind damage, many streets impassable with downed trees and wires. I would say winds in Gloria and Sandy were similar on Long Island. Gloria was not nearly as bad as Sandy in New Jersey or NYC.  The tide flooding in Sandy much worse.

and a lot more heavy rain in Gloria!

Do you guys remember the original Euro track for Sandy? It was supposed to take it into Belmar, I think, near NYC or just west of NYC on a more northerly track? I've wondered if that would have made the impacts from Sandy even worse if that original Euro track verified-- more rain of course, but maybe higher winds too?

 

[lee59]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and a lot more heavy rain in Gloria!

Do you guys remember the original Euro track for Sandy? It was supposed to take it into Belmar, I think, near NYC or just west of NYC on a more northerly track? I've wondered if that would have made the impacts from Sandy even worse if that original Euro track verified-- more rain of course, but maybe higher winds too?

 

Yes plenty of rain in Gloria and lots of downed trees in my area. It was worse in eastern Nassau and out across Suffolk. I think the disorganized center went close to the Nassau Suffolk line

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yes plenty of rain in Gloria and lots of downed trees in my area. It was worse in eastern Nassau and out across Suffolk. I think the disorganized center went close to the Nassau Suffolk line

Yes, I think it was one of our most western hurricane landfalls, it actually almost touched the north central Jersey coast before it started to recurve.  It made landfall close to where Belle made landfall in 1976 I believe.

 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and a lot more heavy rain in Gloria!

Do you guys remember the original Euro track for Sandy? It was supposed to take it into Belmar, I think, near NYC or just west of NYC on a more northerly track? I've wondered if that would have made the impacts from Sandy even worse if that original Euro track verified-- more rain of course, but maybe higher winds too?

 

The winds would've likely been the same. The strongest winds were 100 to 200 miles north of landfall

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

The winds would've likely been the same. The strongest winds were 100 to 200 miles north of landfall

Yes, it was already transitioning, but maybe that track would have caused more damage with much more rainfall? Delaware had around a foot of rainfall on the track it actually took so maybe that rainfall would have made it farther north?

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, it was already transitioning, but maybe that track would have caused more damage with much more rainfall? Delaware had around a foot of rainfall on the track it actually took so maybe that rainfall would have made it farther north?

 

Maybe but anywhere south and west of the track was going to get the heavier rains. Would've needed to make landfall in Montauk 

[lee59]

 

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, it was already transitioning, but maybe that track would have caused more damage with much more rainfall? Delaware had around a foot of rainfall on the track it actually took so maybe that rainfall would have made it farther north?

 

The track Sandy took was so unusual but about as bad a track as we could get in our area. That constant strong easterly and southeasterly wind just kept pushing water into Long Island Sound, Ct , Long Island and Jersey shore. NY harbor was in the perfect location to receive all that ocean water.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe but anywhere south and west of the track was going to get the heavier rains. Would've needed to make landfall in Montauk 

and then we would have had less winds and it would have been more like our other landfalling TCs.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

 

The track Sandy took was so unusual but about as bad a track as we could get in our area. That constant strong easterly and southeasterly wind just kept pushing water into Long Island Sound, Ct , Long Island and Jersey shore. NY harbor was in the perfect location to receive all that ocean water.

It beat all our surge records including the Norfolk and Long Island hurricane and December 1992.

December 1992 is still my top storm for combo of winds and rain and longevity, we've not had anything to match that combo since.