March 2025

[Sundog]

51 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

How’s your snowstorm day off going? 

He can't respond right now, he's outside shoveling. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

He can't respond right now, he's outside shoveling. 

I've shoveled 100 inches of virtual snow this year...

[SACRUS]

51 / 15 windy here.  

 

Next rain is Mon /  Wed and about up to a half an inch in the next week / 7 days.  With the trough into the east, we;ll see if it becomes more unsettled with more rain

 

[Picard]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

This happened in hunterdon county this morning. Thankfully no injuries

 

It's damn lucky the outcome wasn't worse.  That bus is destroyed.
This wind is becoming tiresome.  I don't recall seeing any wind advisories posted.

[SACRUS]

 

March 1967

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, Picard said:

It's damn lucky the outcome wasn't worse.  That bus is destroyed.
This wind is becoming tiresome.  I don't recall seeing any wind advisories posted.

Only in the Poconos

Northwest winds are quite gusty with peak gusts mainly to 40 mph, however some locally higher gusts are possible. The highest gusts, to 50 mph, are expected in parts of the southern Poconos where a Wind Advisory continues through early this afternoon.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I don't see us having as few as 4-5 TC in a season like we did some years in the 70s and 80s either.  The Atlantic basin is simply too warm for us to have that kind of a quiet season.  

Weak hybrid type sub tropical systems are really interesting, especially when they are out of season-- I think you mean a storm like December 1994 that retrograded and moved westward right over JFK? I'd like to see that again.  That was an interesting thing about the 90s, before we saw the big ramp up in TCs starting around 1995 with the emerging +AMO , we had a lot of these hybrid type storms first beginning with the Perfect Storm in October 1991 of course.

Maybe we could get a snowstorm out of one of these hybrids? I wonder if that's happened before at our latitude....

More Cat 5s too, but probably confined to Florida and the Gulf.  I find it interesting we still haven't seen even a Cat 4 make landfall in the SE since Hugo 1989.....

I've always wondered what made the pattern so different between 1938 and 1960 that we had so many landfalling strong hurricanes up here (especially during the 50s.) 

I wonder if it's possible for a Cat 5 to make landfall in the Carolinas.... has it ever happened? Even going back to the 1800s?

 

 

For the outer banks I could see a scenario where a cat 5 is possible, but it would take a ridiculously perfect set up. Something with a recurrence rate of 1000 years or something like that, based on current sea surface temps. You would need a high end 185mph storm in a zero shear environment with the core following the Gulf Stream, that gets tugged due north with minimal weakening down to 160mph while entering the narrow shelf waters in that area. There is a reason the OBX has had a ton of cat 1/2s and only a few majors (all 3s).

The 1950s landfall pattern was kind of the hurricane version of the 2000s 40/70 benchmark snow storm track… Right place right time.

38 was kinda like the OBX scenario I described above, everything came together perfectly. I would love more information on the previous recorded majors in the north east. But we just don’t have the data for how the great colonial hurricane evolved, just that it produced major level damage. The craziest event was in the 1300s based on sediment cores, that one could have been a Tsunami!

[MANDA]

25 minutes ago, Picard said:

It's damn lucky the outcome wasn't worse.  That bus is destroyed.
This wind is becoming tiresome.  I don't recall seeing any wind advisories posted.

Beyond tiresome and very annoying.  So freaking windy last few months.

[steve392]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's very scary my windows almost blew in.  These can't be 45 mph winds or even 50, it has to be at least 60.  The strongest gust I experienced was around 9:50 am.

 

Second floor of my house still has old wooden single pain windows.  Non-stop rattling all day. 

[Yanksfan]

51 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

For the outer banks I could see a scenario where a cat 5 is possible, but it would take a ridiculously perfect set up. Something with a recurrence rate of 1000 years or something like that, based on current sea surface temps. You would need a high end 185mph storm in a zero shear environment with the core following the Gulf Stream, that gets tugged due north with minimal weakening down to 160mph while entering the narrow shelf waters in that area. There is a reason the OBX has had a ton of cat 1/2s and only a few majors (all 3s).

The 1950s landfall pattern was kind of the hurricane version of the 2000s 40/70 benchmark snow storm track… Right place right time.

38 was kinda like the OBX scenario I described above, everything came together perfectly. I would love more information on the previous recorded majors in the north east. But we just don’t have the data for how the great colonial hurricane evolved, just that it produced major level damage. The craziest event was in the 1300s based on sediment cores, that one could have been a Tsunami!

With this new climate we’re entering I wonder what a worst case scenario up here would be for a TC. High end cat 3 perhaps?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, Yanksfan said:

With this new climate we’re entering I wonder what a worst case scenario up here would be for a TC. High end cat 3 perhaps?

Yeah something like that. Maybe Carol 54 plus 5-10mph to account for increased water temps. That was the strongest purely tropical system in modern history in our area. 38 and the 44 great Atlantic hurricanes were undergoing extra tropical transition. That and increased forward speed had the effect of spreading the max sustained winds out from the center, especially on the eastern side. So equal distances from the eye east or west in 38 had huge impacts on winds. So 120 sustained with gusts to 145mph at the Hamptons beaches while more like 80 with gusts to 105mph at jones beach. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

No idea. If the tree is diseased it wouldn't take much

11 kids were taken to the hospital wow.

No excuse for not having a wind advisory at a minimum and based on the winds I saw it should have been a high wind warning.

Two massive trees came down according to the news, the second one fell on the Pelham Bay Pkwy it was 50 feet tall!

Better safe than sorry and the weather outside today was definitely NOT safe.

JFK 54 mph

LGA 51 mph

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

For the outer banks I could see a scenario where a cat 5 is possible, but it would take a ridiculously perfect set up. Something with a recurrence rate of 1000 years or something like that, based on current sea surface temps. You would need a high end 185mph storm in a zero shear environment with the core following the Gulf Stream, that gets tugged due north with minimal weakening down to 160mph while entering the narrow shelf waters in that area. There is a reason the OBX has had a ton of cat 1/2s and only a few majors (all 3s).

The 1950s landfall pattern was kind of the hurricane version of the 2000s 40/70 benchmark snow storm track… Right place right time.

38 was kinda like the OBX scenario I described above, everything came together perfectly. I would love more information on the previous recorded majors in the north east. But we just don’t have the data for how the great colonial hurricane evolved, just that it produced major level damage. The craziest event was in the 1300s based on sediment cores, that one could have been a Tsunami!

A Tsunami from an earthquake in the Azores-- that would be really wild!

When you mentioned 185 mph the hurricane that came to mind was Dorian, it reached 185 mph and wrecked the Bahamas and for awhile it seemed like it was headed right into Central Florida, but it swerved to the north and hit NC instead (as a minimal Cat 1.)

By the way, another hurricane I'd love to see more info on was the only major to ever hit NYC directly-- the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane that also hit Cape May as a Cat 4 and then Manhattan as a Cat 3.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Only in the Poconos

Northwest winds are quite gusty with peak gusts mainly to 40 mph, however some locally higher gusts are possible. The highest gusts, to 50 mph, are expected in parts of the southern Poconos where a Wind Advisory continues through early this afternoon.

They are woefully behind-- 54 mph gusts have already been reported at JFK and 51 mph at LGA.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

March 1967

 

 

 

One of our greatest winters of all time, especially February and March!!

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

He can't respond right now, he's outside shoveling. 

Well, he's shoveling SOMETHING, but it sure aint snow.....

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

A Tsunami from an earthquake in the Azores-- that would be really wild!

When you mentioned 185 mph the hurricane that came to mind was Dorian, it reached 185 mph and wrecked the Bahamas and for awhile it seemed like it was headed right into Central Florida, but it swerved to the north and hit NC instead (as a minimal Cat 1.)

By the way, another hurricane I'd love to see more info on was the only major to ever hit NYC directly-- the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane that also hit Cape May as a Cat 4 and then Manhattan as a Cat 3.

 

 

That one is highly suspect in my opinion.  It’s next to impossible to maintain even a low end major with that much land interaction. As we saw with sandy NY harbor is extremely surge prone and therefore does not need major winds or pressure for a 15’ surge to form.

I think that storm was likely a stronger version of Isias. Maybe hitting the Carolina’s as a major then riding the coast while interacting with a trough. Producing enhanced winds on the east side that probably did gust over 100mph. But likely with a very disrupted core and skewed wind field. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

They are woefully behind-- 54 mph gusts have already been reported at JFK and 51 mph at LGA.

To be fair that was Mt hollys discussion not Upton. But they didn't issue one either

[donsutherland1]

The weekend will start mild with the temperature rising well into the 50s tomorrow. Another brief shot of cold air is likely on Sunday before temperatures quickly moderate starting on Monday. Sunday will be blustery with highs topping out in the upper 40s

A more sustained period of cold could develop starting late next week. The chill could then linger until the closing days of March. The guidance is suggesting that one or two days could see readings reach the 60s just before the end of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around March 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +2.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.770 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal).

 

[STORMANLI]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

A Tsunami from an earthquake in the Azores-- that would be really wild!

When you mentioned 185 mph the hurricane that came to mind was Dorian, it reached 185 mph and wrecked the Bahamas and for awhile it seemed like it was headed right into Central Florida, but it swerved to the north and hit NC instead (as a minimal Cat 1.)

By the way, another hurricane I'd love to see more info on was the only major to ever hit NYC directly-- the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane that also hit Cape May as a Cat 4 and then Manhattan as a Cat 3.

 

 

If Cumbre Vieja Volcano in The Canary Islands western wall collapses then according to studies years ago, it could send a tsunami to The East Coast of The US of indeterminate height.  However, subsequent studies infer that would require a complete collapse, and a multi-stage event might mean it could not create a basin-wide tsunami.

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I've shoveled 100 inches of virtual snow this year...

Some of that was sleet...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

11 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

If Cumbre Vieja Volcano in The Canary Islands western wall collapses then according to studies years ago, it could send a tsunami to The East Coast of The US of indeterminate height.  However, subsequent studies infer that would require a complete collapse, and a multi-stage event might mean it could not create a basin-wide tsunami.

It’s highly unlikely the 1300s event came from the Canary’s. That’s if it even was a tsunami. It’s possible it was surge related to 1,000 plus year hurricane or nor’easter. If it was a tsunami the possibility’s are endless, from a meteor hitting the Atlantic, a major earthquake in the Caribbean or off of Europe or some sort of marine landslide.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

For example, if the marine heatwaves in the West Pac are causing the strong westerly flow we've seen for several months then unless something lessens those marine heatwaves, I don't see what would stop that westerly flow. 

The reason that we had the westerly flow since December was due to all the Great Lakes cutters and coastal hugger storm tracks. But during the summer we don’t get so many windy storm and frontal passages as the storms get weaker. So the summer wind direction will be determined by more subtle influences like where the 500mb ridge axis sets up.

Over the last decade the ridge axis has become more elongated to the east of New England. So areas near the coast get more of a sea breeze influence. Back in the 2010 to 2013 era we had a Southeast Ridge which built more into the Great Lakes than to the east of New England. This allowed more SW to W flow around the Bermuda High. So the Westerly flow was a function of the ridge location rather than an active storm track to our west like this winter into early spring so far.

All the warm ups this spring so far have had more onshore flow influence with numerous 70° days west of the Hudson and cooler highs to the east. We’ll have to see if this pattern repeats again over the summer. One way it could get interrupted is if a strong drought feedback develops to our west allowing more ridging near the Great Lakes than a weak trough and higher heights east of New England. Still too early to tell if this will be the case yet. 

 

[Stormlover74]

[Sundog]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Where are there leaves popping in our area? I see nothing. 

Unless I'm misunderstanding this map. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Where are there leaves popping in our area? I see nothing. 

Unless I'm misunderstanding this map. 

Yeah barely even bud swell on the earliest fruit trees here in the island. Only thing really up a crocus’s and the beginnings of daffodils. 

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Where are there leaves popping in our area? I see nothing. 

Unless I'm misunderstanding this map. 

Pear trees are close to popping in Great Neck but haven’t yet.  Curious if NYC has any trees with leaves starting. 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

Pear trees are close to popping in Great Neck but haven’t yet.  Curious if NYC has any trees with leaves starting. 

Bradford Pears do have some swelling but no leaf popping. Also the typical Sugar/Red Maples with their reddish buds have swelled. Otherwise the majority of trees still "look" like winter mode. 

Zero leaves of any stage. 

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Where are there leaves popping in our area? I see nothing. 

Unless I'm misunderstanding this map. 

Yeah I found it a bit confusing. The post said leaves were popping in Pittsburgh but the map shows some here but I've seen nothing but some buds. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I found it a bit confusing. The post said leaves were popping in Pittsburgh but the map shows some here but I've seen nothing but some buds. 

We tend to lag areas at the same latitude due to the marine influence. So I get it with Pittsburg but the maps definitely off for the island especially. Even Bradfords (hopefully they will all be dead soon, pitiful tree) are just starting to swell right on the south shore.