March 2025

[Dark Star]

32 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe those cold anomalies have more to do with where the Gulf stream is at the moment. The Gulf stream isn't stationary and moves over time, sometimes it's further north or south than normal and those anomalies are indicating just that. The Gulf stream is further south than it usually is right now, which is why you have large positive anomalies just south of the cold anomalies. The shelf water near the coast is actually above normal. Looking at SST maps, the same thing was happening this time last year, by June the cold anomalies were gone

I thought the general Gulf Stream/Labrador current was slowing down?

[TWCCraig]

12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I thought the general Gulf Stream/Labrador current was slowing down?

I think those anomalies are indicative of a shifting Gulf stream and not long term shifts or trends. But I'm no expert or anything when it comes to this. This was March 2024, last year, similar cold blobs and warm blobs.

By June the cold blobs were mostly gone as the Gulf stream shifted north and warmer weather came:

[winterwx21]

0.84" here last night. Another day with wind gusts over 40mph today. Temps should make it to low 50s, but the wind makes it feel a lot colder. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0.84" here last night. Another day with wind gusts over 40mph today. Temps should make it to low 50s, but the wind makes it feel a lot colder. 

It's nice to have rain events not fizzle out before they happen. Monday looks like another solid rainfall

[winterwx21]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's nice to have rain events not fizzle out before they happen. Monday looks like another solid rainfall

We have to be close to ending the drought. Good news as we move into spring. 

[Rmine1]

I wonder how March’25 ranks in terms of the average wind speeds for the month. My American flag is getting bored with being inside all of the time. 

[SACRUS]

 

Gusts to 40-45 at major airports in the last hours.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah I've been yelling about this since last year.  Last year's suppression of tropical activity during the peak of the season and dryness in the second half of the year was the shot across the bow.

Expect these things going forward for the next few years:

1) drier years, a correction from the excessive rainfall of the past two decades.

2) hotter summers in terms of 90 degree days and even 100 degree days right down to the coast with more westerly winds

3) less busy tropical seasons (it does not preclude east coast hurricanes though-- see Belle 1976, Gloria 1985 and Bob 1991).

4) possibility of below zero lows becoming more common in the winter, although this depends on upstream cold and CC changes to the climate since the 1980s.

This reads as you’re wish list….

Water temps had absolutely nothing to do with the lack of tropical activity during the peak season. 
Moving forward a return to the -amo is nearly impossible as a result of CC as blue wave posted…

Welcome to the world of higher dews, higher mins, lower maxes, flash floods and flash droughts….

I would be willing to bet the farm….

[Dan76]

No Wind Advisory strange.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, Dan76 said:

No Wind Advisory strange.

I was thinking the same thing, multiple stations gusting over 45. Definitely had the feel of an advisory day too.

[nycwinter]

wind is so strong today one time it stopped me in my tracks and brought me down to one knee i did not think i would make it..

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This reads as you’re wish list….

Water temps had absolutely nothing to do with the lack of tropical activity during the peak season. 
Moving forward a return to the -amo is nearly impossible as a result of CC as blue wave posted…

Welcome to the world of higher dews, higher mins, lower maxes, flash floods and flash droughts….

I would be willing to bet the farm….

It's been happening for a few years now and climate change won't stop the return to -amo any more than it can stop -nao from happening or stop la ninas from happening.  It's a relative definition.  We already have lower dewpoints now, the winds have been westerly for several months now and this looks to continue.  October was the driest month we've ever had and January was also historically dry.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Still too early to guess the exact wind direction and rainfall pattern as we head into the summer. We had a dry pattern heading into the summer of 2022 and still got onshore flow east of NYC with over 5 days reaching 100° in NJ west of the sea breeze front. I don’t have much confidence in the models beyond 8-15 days for specifics like wind direction so it will just be a wait and see approach as usual.

Yes, the models always play catch up with these kinds of changes.  A CC -AMO will be different from a pre CC -AMO (if there is such a thing, because we had significant climate change in the 80s too, just not to the magnitude we have now.)  By the way and this is important to note, that CC is causing competing factors that either enhance or oppose each other.  The strong westerlies are caused by the marine heatwave out in the West Pac isn't it? If that marine heatwave doesn't lessen, what would stop the strong westerly flow? It could be that the strong westerly flow is being enhanced by climate change.  I can see why scientists say that CC will lead to more extremes-- not just warmer weather, but both rainier AND drier, both higher dew points AND lower dew points, depending on which factor is being enhanced more at a particular time.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

These strong downslope days have been beating guidance so we could make it to the low to mid 50s which is a little warmer than the 51° average high.

I hope we get this in the summer too, it will make it hotter where I live and at the same time in the summer these winds will be MUCH more comfortable.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It's been happening for a few years now and climate change won't stop the return to -amo any more than it can stop -nao from happening or stop la ninas from happening.  It's a relative definition.  We already have lower dewpoints now, the winds have been westerly for several months now and this looks to continue.  October was the driest month we've ever had and January was also historically dry.

 

Alright so let’s revisit this in the fall. 
For a guy who is definitely onboard with global warming you seem to be missing the point. Even if a -amo were to return, using a -2c basin wide threshold the +2c of warming from CC completely negates the -amo. We are in uncharted waters.

Will there be dryer periods locally with potentially higher, high temps? Of course that’s why I mentioned flash droughts. But the overall curve is heading towards higher dews, higher mins and lower maxes.

[steve392]

Winds tossing my truck around like it's a toy.  Storm doors at house, you gotta hold onto with dear life to keep from losing them. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Rains

LGA: 1.32
NYC: 1.11
EWR: 0.98
 

How much for JFK, I had about 0.6 here.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

There was a solid dropoff in precip amunts east of the city:

 

Thanks, less both west and east from the looks of it.  What caused the enhancement right over the city? That never happens in the winter lol... except February 2006, which this map kind of resembles lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Alright so let’s revisit this in the fall. 
For a guy who is definitely onboard with global warming you seem to be missing the point. Even if a -amo were to return, using a -2c basin wide threshold the +2c of warming from CC completely negates the -amo. We are in uncharted waters.

Will there be dryer periods locally with potentially higher, high temps? Of course that’s why I mentioned flash droughts. But the overall curve is heading towards higher dews, higher mins and lower maxes.

Yes, but people think climate change will only cause linear changes in one direction.  But we have to be ready for opposite changes going in different directions depending on competing factors.  So more extremes. Yes, the average temperature will always keep going up regardless, but there are fine details that will change over the shorter term.  For example, if the marine heatwaves in the West Pac are causing the strong westerly flow we've seen for several months then unless something lessens those marine heatwaves, I don't see what would stop that westerly flow.  So in that case, it would mean that CC is the reason for it.  So by this way, we can see how CC can cause both rainier/snowier periods and drier periods and periods of higher dew points and also periods of lower dew points, depending on which set of competing factors are being enhanced at a particular time.  We're seeing this in California too, and it's making the wild fire seasons worse there (and year round), you have periods of time where there are excessive flooding rains and overgrowth and then you have long dry spells with high winds that are causing historic fires.  We won't get fires on that scale (hopefully) but I could see the same thing happening here, with (for example) two decades of high rainfall followed by one decade of lower rainfall and drier conditions.  It won't be exactly like the 80s and the 90s because CC has progressed since then-- but it's useful to remember also that we did not have a month as dry as last October was before climate change.  And I don't remember a first half of November as warm as what we had last year.

And at some point and especially with the current rate of change, there will come a time when higher dew points won't matter, it will hit 100 degrees at the coast at least 1-3 times a summer every summer because a new threshold will have been reached and we'll have a climate more like Jacksonville, Florida. I would guess maybe by 2080.

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/jacksonville/yearly-days-of-100-degrees

Which year had the most 100° days?

Based on NOAA records, the year 1981 holds the record for the most 100 °F days in Jacksonville history. There were 10 days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees that year.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Winds tossing my truck around like it's a toy.  Storm doors at house, you gotta hold onto with dear life to keep from losing them. 

It's very scary my windows almost blew in.  These can't be 45 mph winds or even 50, it has to be at least 60.  The strongest gust I experienced was around 9:50 am.

 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

wind is so strong today one time it stopped me in my tracks and brought me down to one knee i did not think i would make it..

stay safe out there little bro, make sure you duck if you see a two by four flying by your head.....

Maybe wearing a helmet would help too??

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, but people think climate change will only cause linear changes in one direction.  But we have to be ready for opposite changes going in different directions depending on competing factors.  So more extremes. Yes, the average temperature will always keep going up regardless, but there are fine details that will change over the shorter term.  For example, if the marine heatwaves in the West Pac are causing the strong westerly flow we've seen for several months then unless something lessens those marine heatwaves, I don't see what would stop that westerly flow.  So in that case, it would mean that CC is the reason for it.  So by this way, we can see how CC can cause both rainier/snowier periods and drier periods and periods of higher dew points and also periods of lower dew points, depending on which set of competing factors are being enhanced at a particular time.  We're seeing this in California too, and it's making the wild fire seasons worse there (and year round), you have periods of time where there are excessive flooding rains and overgrowth and then you have long dry spells with high winds that are causing historic fires.  We won't get fires on that scale (hopefully) but I could see the same thing happening here, with (for example) two decades of high rainfall followed by one decade of lower rainfall and drier conditions.  It won't be exactly like the 80s and the 90s because CC has progressed since then-- but it's useful to remember also that we did not have a month as dry as last October was before climate change.  And I don't remember a first half of November as warm as what we had last year.

And at some point and especially with the current rate of change, there will come a time when higher dew points won't matter, it will hit 100 degrees at the coast at least 1-3 times a summer every summer because a new threshold will have been reached and we'll have a climate more like Jacksonville, Florida. I would guess maybe by 2080.

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/jacksonville/yearly-days-of-100-degrees

Which year had the most 100° days?

Based on NOAA records, the year 1981 holds the record for the most 100 °F days in Jacksonville history. There were 10 days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees that year.

 

I think we are more or less on the same page. As far as tropical activity, that’s an area where we need more data to make any firm conclusions. Obviously last season didn’t play out the way it was forecast. That’s the fascinating thing about climate change. One would think there would be a linear relationship between water temps and ACE. But there is so much more going on. personally I think the next decade sees an increase in weak, hybrid type sub tropic systems and a decrease in run of the mill cat 1/2 MDR systems. On the opposite side, I also think there will be an increase in the number of the highest end cat 5s. 

 

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

We have to be close to ending the drought. Good news as we move into spring. 

Droughts are never much of a concern in our general area as far as available potable water.  Rain has always returned.  The real danger is brush and forest fires.

[jm1220]

On 3/18/2025 at 7:47 PM, MJO812 said:

Yes

How’s your snowstorm day off going? 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think we are more or less on the same page. As far as tropical activity, that’s an area where we need more data to make any firm conclusions. Obviously last season didn’t play out the way it was forecast. That’s the fascinating thing about climate change. One would think there would be a linear relationship between water temps and ACE. But there is so much more going on. personally I think the next decade sees an increase in weak, hybrid type sub tropic systems and a decrease in run of the mill cat 1/2 MDR systems. On the opposite side, I also think there will be an increase in the number of the highest end cat 5s. 

 

 

Yes, I don't see us having as few as 4-5 TC in a season like we did some years in the 70s and 80s either.  The Atlantic basin is simply too warm for us to have that kind of a quiet season.  

Weak hybrid type sub tropical systems are really interesting, especially when they are out of season-- I think you mean a storm like December 1994 that retrograded and moved westward right over JFK? I'd like to see that again.  That was an interesting thing about the 90s, before we saw the big ramp up in TCs starting around 1995 with the emerging +AMO , we had a lot of these hybrid type storms first beginning with the Perfect Storm in October 1991 of course.

Maybe we could get a snowstorm out of one of these hybrids? I wonder if that's happened before at our latitude....

More Cat 5s too, but probably confined to Florida and the Gulf.  I find it interesting we still haven't seen even a Cat 4 make landfall in the SE since Hugo 1989.....

I've always wondered what made the pattern so different between 1938 and 1960 that we had so many landfalling strong hurricanes up here (especially during the 50s.) 

I wonder if it's possible for a Cat 5 to make landfall in the Carolinas.... has it ever happened? Even going back to the 1800s?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Droughts are never much of a concern in our general area as far as available potable water.  Rain has always returned.  The real danger is brush and forest fires.

Yes and this more because of the wind rather than dry conditions.

 

[Stormlover74]

This happened in hunterdon county this morning. Thankfully no injuries

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This happened in hunterdon county this morning. Thankfully no injuries

what kind of winds do you need for this? at least 60 I'd assume?

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what kind of winds do you need for this? at least 60 I'd assume?

No idea. If the tree is diseased it wouldn't take much

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

How’s your snowstorm day off going? 

Today is my regular day off