LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wait, last March was #1 warmest through the first 15 days? How's this possible-- it didn't even hit 80 in March. The first 15 days of March 1990 must have been quite a bit warmer? You know the answer. You seem to recollect a lot about past heat waves being more intense. The reality is with higher dews, the minimums are skewing the averages. 85/55 is cooler then 75/67. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wait, last March was #1 warmest through the first 15 days? How's this possible-- it didn't even hit 80 in March. The first 15 days of March 1990 must have been quite a bit warmer? The first 17 days of March 2024 were a scorching blowtorch without precedence in the historical record. And it wasn't driven by minimum temperatures either. Mean maximum was more than 1F warmer than second place, and nearly 2.5F warmer than 1990 at Central Park. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 50 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: You know the answer. You seem to recollect a lot about past heat waves being more intense. The reality is with higher dews, the minimums are skewing the averages. 85/55 is cooler then 75/67. It's not cooler, it only feels cooler. I look at that the same way I look at wind chill. Actually it didn't feel cooler, back in March 1990 everyone was wearing Bermuda shorts lol. I just don't find much usefulness in *average* temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 22 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: The first 17 days of March 2024 were a scorching blowtorch without precedence in the historical record. And it wasn't driven by minimum temperatures either. Mean maximum was more than 1F warmer than second place, and nearly 2.5F warmer than 1990 at Central Park. But no 80 degree highs? March 1990 must have started out very cold, because that heatwave in the second week was truly historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 22 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: The first 17 days of March 2024 were a scorching blowtorch without precedence in the historical record. And it wasn't driven by minimum temperatures either. Mean maximum was more than 1F warmer than second place, and nearly 2.5F warmer than 1990 at Central Park. For it to be without precedence there would have to be at least 3 days with a high of 80 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But no 80 degree highs? March 1990 must have started out very cold, because that heatwave in the second week was truly historic. And 3 to 4 inches of snow fell on the 7th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 3 minutes ago, Sundog said: And 3 to 4 inches of snow fell on the 7th. Thanks, it was a lot more exciting than either of the last two Marches (multiple extremes lol), or any March of this decade for that matter. Getting snow and 85 degrees in the same month is absolute weather perfection ! It cooled down after the 17th didn't it? I remember that-- and we had half an inch of snow in the first week of April that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks, it was a lot more exciting than either of the last two Marches (multiple extremes lol), or any March of this decade for that matter. Getting snow and 85 degrees in the same month is absolute weather perfection ! It cooled down after the 17th didn't it? I remember that-- and we had half an inch of snow in the first week of April that year. Here's the rest of the month. This is for Central Park just to be clear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Not sure I can recall a single model being such an outlier for so long and this close to the event (72 hrs). It almost has to be wrong, but... 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Not sure I can recall a single model being such an outlier for so long and this close to the event (72 hrs). It almost has to be wrong, but... it's almost like you're begging to be weenie'd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Not sure I can recall a single model being such an outlier for so long and this close to the event (72 hrs). It almost has to be wrong, but... 18Z or 0z it will shift north to match the others-there was another recent event where it did this....a clipper around 3/1 which was way too far south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 14 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Not sure I can recall a single model being such an outlier for so long and this close to the event (72 hrs). It almost has to be wrong, but... Haha I love this. We need a thumbs up emoji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 18Z or 0z it will shift north to match the others-there was another recent event where it did this....a clipper around 3/1 which was way too far south Yea I remember that, it was giving us snow meanwhile other models had it going through northern New England latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Today was perfect for this time of year. 63, sunny, little wind. Still well above average 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: It's not cooler, it only feels cooler. I look at that the same way I look at wind chill. Actually it didn't feel cooler, back in March 1990 everyone was wearing Bermuda shorts lol. I just don't find much usefulness in *average* temperatures. I only adhere to average temperatures since records have been kept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Not sure I can recall a single model being such an outlier for so long and this close to the event (72 hrs). It almost has to be wrong, but... are you a ? Come on even Anthony gave up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 4 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I only adhere to average temperatures since records have been kept. The higher minimums contaminate that record, we measure heat by number of hot days (highs of 90 or higher.) Thus excessively wet summers get an artificial boost as does increased urbanization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Just now, Feen said: are you a ? Come on even Anthony gave up come to think of it, a setup like this happened back in March 22nd 1998 where it was poorly forecasted and NYC ended up getting 5 inches of snow that early morning. Maybe the date is wrong but I know it was late March 1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 2 minutes ago, Feen said: are you a ? Come on even Anthony gave up He's probably just joking around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 20 minutes ago, Feen said: come to think of it, a setup like this happened back in March 22nd 1998 where it was poorly forecasted and NYC ended up getting 5 inches of snow that early morning. Maybe the date is wrong but I know it was late March 1998 That surprise 5 inches (which I remember well) ruined the record for least snowy winter on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 34 minutes ago, Feen said: are you a ? Come on even Anthony gave up I'm back on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 11 minutes ago, Sundog said: That surprise 5 inches (which I remember well) ruined the record for least snowy winter on record. Yep. Total waist, in what still is the most futile winter of all time!!! It was gone so fast if you happened not to go outside that morning you wouldn’t even know it happened… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 The mild weather will continue through Thursday. It could turn briefly cooler on Friday. The arrival of the cooler air will be preceded by a period of rain Thursday night into Friday. A stronger shot of cold is possible next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around March 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. The SOI was +12.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.870 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I'm back on board did you take off for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 22 minutes ago, Feen said: did you take off for Friday? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 61 today. Beautiful. Went down to the marina for a bit. Boat goes in the water April 28 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 It's 52 at EWR?! I swear it feels like upper 50s to lower 60s out here And 44 at the jersey city Liberty State Park mesonet but that's expected (that area might as be a smaller version of the pine barrens) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 5 hours ago, Brian5671 said: 18Z or 0z it will shift north to match the others-there was another recent event where it did this....a clipper around 3/1 which was way too far south Not only did that not happen, but the Euro is now showing an inch or two along/N of 80 at 18Z, instead of well N of 84 at 12Z. It's not being a weenie to simply point out what models are showing. There are still no other models on board and 95 snow is still a very low probability, but not zero - and both the NWS Philly and NYC offices are now mentioning the potential for at least inland snow for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 6 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Not only did that not happen, but the Euro is now showing an inch or two along/N of 80 at 18Z, instead of well N of 84 at 12Z. It's not being a weenie to simply point out what models are showing. There are still no other models on board and 95 snow is still a very low probability, but not zero - and both the NWS Philly and NYC offices are now mentioning the potential for at least inland snow for the first time. Wow. Maybe the meso models will come on board but for now they are well north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Wow. Maybe the meso models will come on board but for now they are well north Interior NY gets hammered on gfs Rain for us Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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