March 2025

[TheClimateChanger]

On 3/11/2025 at 8:25 AM, bluewave said:

It was our driest winter since 21-22 across the area.

 

Wow. The nationwide average PDSI is -3.79, as of the end of February. 16th lowest on record.

[TheClimateChanger]

13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow. The nationwide average PDSI is -3.79, as of the end of February. 16th lowest on record.

I consider the nClimDiv PDSI values as the only reliable measurement of drought, but they are only published once a month. The calculation has been maintained in the same way for the entire dataset.

The published Drought Monitor is not always reliable - there seems to be a human bias to verify forecasts, as opposed to purely basing it off of objective temperature & precipitation data. Other sources for the PDSI typically use the self-calibrated version developed in the recent past, which tends to minimize the effect of warming temperatures [temperature is a primary variable in the PDSI formula, due to its impact on PET]. This dataset is the only one that seems reliable when comparing to the past.

Here is the divisional map. Southern New Jersey is second driest on record, nearing -5 on the traditional scale.

[Big Jims Videos]

We are expecting an update on the spring fire season for New Jersey at 1:30 from our DEP.  Really need a soaking Sunday night before the temps rise next week.  

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I consider the nClimDiv PDSI values as the only reliable measurement of drought, but they are only published once a month. The calculation has been maintained in the same way for the entire dataset.

The published Drought Monitor is not always reliable - there seems to be a human bias to verify forecasts, as opposed to purely basing it off of objective temperature & precipitation data. Other sources for the PDSI typically use the self-calibrated version developed in the recent past, which tends to minimize the effect of warming temperatures [temperature is a primary variable in the PDSI formula, due to its impact on PET]. This dataset is the only one that seems reliable when comparing to the past.

Here is the divisional map. Southern New Jersey is second driest on record, nearing -5 on the traditional scale.

I don't even consider the measurement of *drought* to be accurate, the normal rainfall for NYC (as an example) is around 41-42 inches per year not the 50 inches or so we've been averaging the last period or so.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's a nationwide torch right now. I wouldn't be surprised if it's the warmest first 12 days of March on record nationwide. There's been record warmth all over the place.

it's raining in LA and SD and snow in the SD mountains though.

 

[Stormlover74]

Cmc remains the wettest since the euro backed off

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Cfa said:

Canceled my RadarScope subscription until we get weather, and with Long Island being the most boring part of the region outside of tropical events, it’ll be quite awhile.

2012 was the best spring+summer combination that I can recall, but this is the first March in a while that hasn’t sucked.

It's $10 for the year.  Canceling it never even crosses my mind.  83 cents a month.

[Brian5671]

Chilly day with the east winds and 45.   Sun is out so that helps a bit.   Usually it's overcast with these setups this time of yr.

[winterwx21]

Up to 50 here despite the east winds. A little chilly but a nice day. 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

It's $10 for the year.  Canceling it never even crosses my mind.  83 cents a month.

 

We don't all get free electricity like you

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

 

We don't all get free electricity like you

he has solar panels?

[Sundog]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

he has solar panels?

Solar panels and a dividend, sick setup, but still has some downsides, he can tell you about those if he feels like it 

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't even consider the measurement of *drought* to be accurate, the normal rainfall for NYC (as an example) is around 41-42 inches per year not the 50 inches or so we've been averaging the last period or so.

 

AMEN. these guys that keep preaching drought on here have no idea what a real drought looks like.

 

Hint…this isnt it.

 

we actually need a prolonged drier than normal period to kind of reset things in the ecosystem around here.

 

and yes, there will be some wildfires… But that is also normal.

 

last go around on Long Island was probably mid 90s when large swaths of the pine barrens burned.

 

Those same pine barrens are now being eaten alive by a bug. 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

AMEN. these guys that keep preaching drought on here have no idea what a real drought looks like.

 

Hint…this isnt it.

 

we actually need a prolonged drier than normal period to kind of reset things in the ecosystem around here.

 

and yes, there will be some wildfires… But that is also normal.

 

last go around on Long Island was probably mid 90s when large swaths of the pine barrens burned.

 

Those same pine barrens are now being eaten alive by a bug. 

August 1995, I was just talking about that on X earlier when someone said this has never happened before.  That was a real wildfire system, the wildfires were widespread from Long Island to NJ and you could even see the smoke in satellite imagery!

We have been doing prescribed burns in Nassau County which should help things from getting out of control.

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't even consider the measurement of *drought* to be accurate, the normal rainfall for NYC (as an example) is around 41-42 inches per year not the 50 inches or so we've been averaging the last period or so.

 

It has been the 2nd driest late August to mid-March on record in NYC. The actual rainfall has been similar the same as the 2001-2002 drought. So those departures are legit since they match the actual amounts. There has only been 14.73” since August 23rd.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-03-13	14.25	0
2	2025-03-13	14.73	1
3	1947-03-13	15.23	0
4	1932-03-13	16.08	0
5	1966-03-13	16.10	0
6	1880-03-13	16.64	0
7	1954-03-13	16.87	0
-	1876-03-13	16.87	0
8	1905-03-13	17.05	0
9	1897-03-13	17.07	0
10	1992-03-13	17.12	0

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It has been the 2nd driest late August to mid-March on record in NYC. The actual rainfall has been exactly the same as the 2001-2002 drought. So those departures are legit since they match the actual amounts. There has only been 14.73” since August 23rd.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-03-13	14.25	0
2	2025-03-13	14.73	1
3	1947-03-13	15.23	0
4	1932-03-13	16.08	0
5	1966-03-13	16.10	0
6	1880-03-13	16.64	0
7	1954-03-13	16.87	0
-	1876-03-13	16.87	0
8	1905-03-13	17.05	0
9	1897-03-13	17.07	0
10	1992-03-13	17.12	0

 

I think the reason we didn't have wildfires in 2002 is because we didn't have this foliage overgrowth we have now from previous years of excessive rainfall.  It's very much like California, they've been going through these drought-flood-drought cycles too and the flood periods result in massive overgrowth of foliage probably like what we have experienced with the last couple of decades of high rainfall now being corrected by the current dry period.  If we keep having more extremes, not just in temperature, but also in rainfall and snowfall, then we and our environment are going to have to find some way to adjust.

 

Incidentally, 2002 just got hotter and drier from this point on, beginning with that historic April heatwave that matched 1976 almost perfectly, but unlike 1976, it was followed by a very hot and dry summer (one of my all time favorites.)  The pattern broke with the historic 2002-03 winter, yet another great winter followed by a hot and dry summer.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think the reason we didn't have wildfires in 2002 is because we didn't have this foliage overgrowth we have now from previous years of excessive rainfall.  It's very much like California, they've been going through these drought-flood-drought cycles too and the flood periods result in massive overgrowth of foliage probably like what we have experienced with the last couple of decades of high rainfall now being corrected by the current dry period.  If we keep having more extremes, not just in temperature, but also in rainfall and snowfall, then we and our environment are going to have to find some way to adjust.

 

Incidentally, 2002 just got hotter and drier from this point on, beginning with that historic April heatwave that matched 1976 almost perfectly, but unlike 1976, it was followed by a very hot and dry summer (one of my all time favorites.)  The pattern broke with the historic 2002-03 winter, yet another great winter followed by a hot and dry summer.

Part of it is that the drought peaked in mid-April 2002 with all the record heat and some spots approaching 100°. It started getting rainy in late April so we didn’t get the peak drought conditions during the summer like in 1995. Plus we didn't have the high winds in the spring of 2002 like we have been getting this year. So hopefully we can start getting wet again by mid to late spring so we avoid a drought peak during the summer with all that would entail. 

 

Monthly Data for April 2002 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	HARRISON	COOP	98
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	98
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	97
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	97
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	97
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	96
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	96
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	96
NJ	MIDLAND PARK	COOP	96
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	96
NY	BRONX	COOP	96
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	96
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	95
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	95
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	95
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	95
NY	OCEANSIDE	COOP	95
CT	DANBURY	COOP	95
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	95
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	95
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	95
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	95

[IrishRob17]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think the reason we didn't have wildfires in 2002 is because we didn't have this foliage overgrowth we have now from previous years of excessive rainfall.  It's very much like California, they've been going through these drought-flood-drought cycles too and the flood periods result in massive overgrowth of foliage probably like what we have experienced with the last couple of decades of high rainfall now being corrected by the current dry period.  If we keep having more extremes, not just in temperature, but also in rainfall and snowfall, then we and our environment are going to have to find some way to adjust.

 

Incidentally, 2002 just got hotter and drier from this point on, beginning with that historic April heatwave that matched 1976 almost perfectly, but unlike 1976, it was followed by a very hot and dry summer (one of my all time favorites.)  The pattern broke with the historic 2002-03 winter, yet another great winter followed by a hot and dry summer.

https://dec.ny.gov/environmental-protection/wildfires/wildland-fires-and-acres-burned-in-nys

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

https://dec.ny.gov/environmental-protection/wildfires/wildland-fires-and-acres-burned-in-nys

Thanks Rob, I've been looking for something like this.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Part of it is that the drought peaked in mid-April 2002 with all the record heat and some spots approaching 100°. It started getting rainy in late April so we didn’t get the peak drought conditions during the summer like in 1995. Plus we didn't have the high winds in the spring of 2002 like we have been getting this year. So hopefully we can start getting wet again by mid to late spring so we avoid a drought peak during the summer with all that would entail. 

 

Monthly Data for April 2002 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	HARRISON	COOP	98
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	98
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	97
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	97
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	97
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	96
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	96
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	96
NJ	MIDLAND PARK	COOP	96
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	96
NY	BRONX	COOP	96
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	96
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	95
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	95
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	95
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	95
NY	OCEANSIDE	COOP	95
CT	DANBURY	COOP	95
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	95
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	95
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	95
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	95

When we had that really hot summer in 2002 (JFK had one of its highest number of 90 degree days-- their three top summers for them were 1983, 2002 and 2010 if I remember correctly), had the area recovered enough from the earlier drought? I do remember a lot of very yellow lawns in the summer of 2002.

I actually have a couple of images of my lawn saved from that summer lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Part of it is that the drought peaked in mid-April 2002 with all the record heat and some spots approaching 100°. It started getting rainy in late April so we didn’t get the peak drought conditions during the summer like in 1995. Plus we didn't have the high winds in the spring of 2002 like we have been getting this year. So hopefully we can start getting wet again by mid to late spring so we avoid a drought peak during the summer with all that would entail. 

 

Monthly Data for April 2002 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	HARRISON	COOP	98
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	98
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	97
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	97
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	97
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	96
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	96
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	96
NJ	MIDLAND PARK	COOP	96
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	96
NY	BRONX	COOP	96
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	96
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	95
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	95
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	95
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	95
NY	OCEANSIDE	COOP	95
CT	DANBURY	COOP	95
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	95
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	95
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	95
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	95

Chris, something else I remember about that April heatwave is that they were haze free and one of the bluest skies I have EVER seen.  This is also from that month.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

the forecast is for breaks in the clouds over NYC and western long island just in time for the eclipse even better inland

 

the trend is our friend here, all week we've had more sun than forecast

[lee59]

Kennedy airport continues to be milder than surrounding areas by quite a bit. So far this month:

Kennedy +5.7

Islip and Central Park +3.5

LaGuardia  also +3.5

Farmingdale +2.6

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Kennedy airport continues to be milder than surrounding areas by quite a bit. So far this month:

Kennedy +5.7

Islip and Central Park +3.5

LaGuardia  also +3.5

Farmingdale +2.6

that predominant west wind, I think this will continue through the summer with some small breaks.

 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

 

We don't all get free electricity like you

If you can't afford 83 cents you have much bigger problems.  Many more should have got in on solar when incentives were better years ago

[Brian5671]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the forecast is for breaks in the clouds over NYC and western long island just in time for the eclipse even better inland

 

the trend is our friend here, all week we've had more sun than forecast

Unusual to have gusty east winds this time of year and clear skies

[Sundog]

13 minutes ago, FPizz said:

If you can't afford 83 cents you have much bigger problems.  Many more should have got in on solar when incentives were better years ago

Lol I liked your post, I don't disagree with you. 

I hate Con Edison with a passion, they are major ripoff artists. I wish I had a solar setup. 

Leave it to the geniuses at Albany, while on the one hand championing green energy, they shut off a nuclear plant that supplied NYC with over 25% of its electricity, immune to global price shocks and producing basically no greenhouse gases. 

Now NYC actually produces more greenhouse gases than before lol good job guys!

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Lol I liked your post, I don't disagree with you. 

I hate Con Edison with a passion, they are major ripoff artists. I wish I had a solar setup. 

Leave it to the geniuses at Albany, while on the one hand championing green energy, they shut off a nuclear plant that supplied NYC with over 25% of its electricity, immune to global price shocks and producing basically no greenhouse gases. 

Now NYC actually produces more greenhouse gases than before lol good job guys!

 

Con Edison is horrible, I heard they were trying to increase rates yet again.

 

Highway robbery....

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Unusual to have gusty east winds this time of year and clear skies

Today turned out much sunnier than anyone thought.  We had a small period of clouds around noon but both before and after has been mostly clear, even last night. The clouds have been going to our north and our south but we're the clear part of the sandwich lol.

 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Con Edison is horrible, I heard they were trying to increase rates yet again.

 

Highway robbery....

 

They are. "Delivery" costs are higher than the energy itself on the bill.