March 2025

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

3rd highest 9 hour temperature rise in March at spots like SMQ.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=SMQ&v=tmpf&hours=9&month=mar&dir=warm&how=over&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
 

 

 

wow and I thought Toms River KMJX would be even more than this because they radiate so well since they're in the Pine Barrens and heat up so quickly on a SW wind.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Mde it to 70 today.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow and I thought Toms River KMJX would be even more than this because they radiate so well since they're in the Pine Barrens and heat up so quickly on a SW wind.

 

It will be interesting to see how this drought progresses over the spring. Since areas away from the sea breeze during the last drought which was weaker in 2022 had a near record number of 100° days in NJ. But that was a continuing La Niña pattern from 20-21 to 22-23. This spring is more uncertain with the ENSO as there is currently a toss up between a continuing La Niña or an attempt to shift back into El Niño. We don’t have any analogs for such a quick shift back to El Niño. So the ENSO progress and drought progress could very well shape the coming summer details. Plus we have the coldest SSTs in over a decade to our east so backdoors this spring could be particularly strong. Any lingering cool spots to our east could enhance sea breezes here in the summer. So a number of factors to consider for our summer pattern.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how this drought progresses over the spring. Since areas away from the sea breeze during the last drought which was weaker in 2022 had a near record number of 100° days in NJ. But that was a continuing La Niña pattern from 20-21 to 22-23. This spring is more uncertain with the ENSO as there is currently a toss up between a continuing La Niña or an attempt to shift back into El Niño. We don’t have any analogs for such a quick shift back to El Niño. So the ENSO progress and drought progress could very well shape the coming summer details. Plus we have the coldest SSTs in over a decade to our east so backdoors this spring could be particularly strong. Any lingering cool spots to our east could enhance sea breezes here in the summer. So a number of factors to consider for our summer pattern.

I'm hoping we have much less of a seabreeze this summer and we have a return to 2010 type conditions with the strong westerlies.

If we have prolonged downsloping heat then the oceans could heat up quickly.

Wasn't the 2009-10 winter much colder than this one with much colder SST to begin with?

So was the 2010-11 winter as a matter of fact.

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how this drought progresses over the spring. Since areas away from the sea breeze during the last drought which was weaker in 2022 had a near record number of 100° days in NJ. But that was a continuing La Niña pattern from 20-21 to 22-23. This spring is more uncertain with the ENSO as there is currently a toss up between a continuing La Niña or an attempt to shift back into El Niño. We don’t have any analogs for such a quick shift back to El Niño. So the ENSO progress and drought progress could very well shape the coming summer details. Plus we have the coldest SSTs in over a decade to our east so backdoors this spring could be particularly strong. Any lingering cool spots to our east could enhance sea breezes here in the summer. So a number of factors to consider for our summer pattern.

 

Thank god, I love cool days. I hope the cooler SSTs last as long as possible 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Sundog said:

 

Thank god, I love cool days. I hope the cooler SSTs last as long as possible 

Hey I thought you like hot and dry !

Not to give a counterpoint but we had much colder SST than this in 2009-10 and 2010-11 and you know how those summers turned out.

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Thursday will be cooler days. Highs tomorrow will reach the lower 50s. Readings on Thursday could top out in the middle and upper 40s. Nevertheless, a generally mild pattern continues and will last through at least the weekend. The March 10-17 period will see temperatures average much above normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Rain could arrive on Sunday and continue into Monday. The potential exists for a moderate to significant rainfall.

The risk of a moderate (4" or more) in the New York City area remains low through at least the first three weeks of March. A significant or substantial snowfall in New York City is unlikely for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. There is an increasing prospect that New York City has seen its last measurable snowfall of the 2024-2025 season.

The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February dissipated during the first week of March. However, the peak magnitude of that previous PNA ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops.  

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +10.29 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.729 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (3.5° above normal).

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

3rd highest 9 hour temperature rise in March at spots like SMQ.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=SMQ&v=tmpf&hours=9&month=mar&dir=warm&how=over&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
 

 

 

Before the leaves pop on the trees you can see lots of huge diurnal swings like these. Hope we all enjoyed today and yesterday before the onshore gunk onslaught. 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Hey I thought you like hot and dry !

Not to give a counterpoint but we had much colder SST than this in 2009-10 and 2010-11 and you know how those summers turned out.

 

I'd rather have hot and dry and breezy than ultra high dewpoints and a dead wind. 

But a 75/45 day, nothing beats that!

[SRRTA22]

59 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'd rather have hot and dry and breezy than ultra high dewpoints and a dead wind. 

But a 75/45 day, nothing beats that!

I truly hate our new high dew point climate , with a PASSION

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

I truly hate our new high dew point climate , with a PASSION

It makes it harder to breathe

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Before the leaves pop on the trees you can see lots of huge diurnal swings like these. Hope we all enjoyed today and yesterday before the onshore gunk onslaught. 

I guess that's why it's like this in November too?

 

By the way, all hope isn't lost for that eclipse!

As an example, the satellite seems to show it's cloudy here, but it's not.  Sure there are patches of clouds but you can see over 50% of the blue sky right now.