March 2025

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

You can see how strong the Southeast Ridge was on the 11 days this winter with over .25 of precipitation in NYC .The average temperature on those days was 41°. So with such a warm storm track the area was lucky to break 10” on the season. We also saw the -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge which has been a common theme in the 2020s. Also notice how impressive the Pacific Jet was on those 11 days with the biggest winter storms. 

 

11 day winter storm composite with .25 and more of precipitation in NYC

 

 

[donsutherland1]

The week ahead: Generally much warmer than normal.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

The week ahead: Generally much warmer than normal.

Warm/dry could fuel fire conditions. Hopefully winds are low. 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Warm/dry could fuel fire conditions. Hopefully winds are low. 

I agree. Hopefully, the forecast rain for next weekend on the guidance will materialize.

[Sundog]

10 hours ago, TriPol said:

Its going to get below freezing tonight. I truly am sick of this cold weather!!

 

Even NYC's average low until like 4 days ago was still freezing or below. And they're by far the warmest spot in the area. 

What were you expecting?

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. Hopefully, the forecast rain for next weekend on the guidance will materialize.

The front has been getting slowed down from earlier runs due to the much stronger Southeast Ridge next weekend. Maybe we can sneak in a drier weekend. With the front holding off until Sunday Night or Monday. But hopefully it still retains enough moisture after the low cuts off further west.

New run

Old run

 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said:

It's crazy that CPK almost nickled and dimed its seasonal snow to DC's considering those nice events they had this winter (and LGA even has more)

 

DCA average is really bad. 

That would be like one of our worst seasons, which is what I consider 12 inches. 

[psv88]

24 this morning. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week out here with temps near 60

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Warm/dry could fuel fire conditions. Hopefully winds are low. 

We’ve already seen wildfires in Long Island and in New Jersey and it’s not even mid-March yet. Usually brush fire season doesn’t really get going until late March. If it doesn’t start raining a lot very soon we are going to have a very bad spring with wildfires galore. The disturbing part is, aside from last week’s rain event, everything since mid-August has trended way drier on guidance as we move closer in time. And we keep seeing high wind events….it’s been relentless since October 

[snowman19]

We’ve already seen wildfires in Long Island and in New Jersey and it’s not even mid-March yet. Usually brush fire season doesn’t really get going until late March. If it doesn’t start raining a lot very soon we are going to have a very bad spring with wildfires galore. The disturbing part is, aside from last week’s rain event, everything since mid-August has trended way drier on guidance as we move closer in time. And we keep seeing high wind events….it’s been relentless since October 

[MANDA]

February 2025 and Winter 2024-2025 summaries for NJ:

https://www.njweather.org/content/nuisances-not-blockbusters-february-2025-winter-20242025-recaps

 

 

[H2Otown_WX]

3 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

It's crazy that CPK almost nickled and dimed its seasonal snow to DC's considering those nice events they had this winter (and LGA even has more)

Mansfield OH nearly losing to Elizabeth City NC

[SACRUS]

 

 

46 / 14 off a low of 26.  Warmer today with more winds kicking up later today.  50s today, 60s Mon / Tue  - some of the warmer spots may get 70 for the first time since mid Nov.   Could see  more gloomy / cloudy period during the Thu - Sun period coming up with next shot of rain during the weekend 15-16 and into Sat Patrick's Day week.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 82 (2016)
NYC: 77 (2016)
LGA: 75 (2016)
JFK: 67 (1973)


Lows;

EWR: 10 (1996)
NYC: 11 (1996)
LGA: 14 (1996)
JFK: 13 (1996)

 

Historical:

 

1891: From March 9 through the 13th, a blizzard struck southern England and Wales with gale-force winds. 220 people were killed; 65 ships foundered in the English Channel, and 6,000 sheep perished. Countless trees were uprooted, and trains were buried. Up to a foot of snow and snowdrifts of 11.5 feet were reported in Dulwich, London, Torquay, Sidmouth, and Dartmouth.

1956 - A whopping 367 inches of snow was measured on the ground at the Ranier Paradise Ranger Station in Washington. The snow depth was a state record and the second highest total of record for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1960 - A winter storm produced a narrow band of heavy snow from north central Kentucky into Virginia and the mountains of North Carolina. Snowfall amounts ranged from 12 to 24 inches, with drifts up to eleven feet high in western Virginia. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Gale force winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Some places were 50 degrees colder than the previous day. Northeast winds, gusting to 60 mph, produced 8 to 15 foot waves on Lake Michigan causing more than a million dollars damage along the southeastern shoreline of Wisconsin. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

 

1988 - A cold front brought high winds to the southwestern U.S. Winds in the Las Vegas Valley of Nevada gusted to 70 mph, and one person was injured by a falling tree. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-two cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. In New Mexico, afternoon highs of 72 at Los Alamos, 76 at Ruidoso, and 79 at Quemado, were records for March. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in West Texas. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 71 mph at Lubbock, and golf ball size hail was reported at several other locations. Strong thunderstorm winds injured two persons north of the town of Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2013: A supercell over eastern Oahu in Hawaii produced 4.25" hail NW of Kailua, the largest hailstone ever recorded in Hawaii. The storm also spawned a tornadic waterspout that came ashore and caused EF-0 damage. 

[SACRUS]

 

First 8 days with the next 8 likely adding to these positive departures.

JFK: +3.7
EWR: +2.6
TTN: +1.4
:LG:  +0.9 
NYC: +0.7

[SACRUS]

 

 

Daylight:

11H:39M

Sunrise: 7:17 AM  DST
Sunset : 6:58 PM DST

Roughly equivalent to October 3

 

Gained : 2H44M from the Dec 21 lull

Adding an additional 2m42-44S  seconds of daylight each day the next week (peak daily increase annual)

[Sundog]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Anyone know how the precip deficit map was created/came from?

It's gorgeous 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

First 8 days with the next 8 likely adding to these positive departures.

JFK: +3.7
EWR: +2.6
TTN: +1.4
:LG:  +0.9 
NYC: +0.7

Jfk has been milder than nearby stations. This month they are 3.7 above normal compared to Islip at 1.5 and Farmingdale at .6. Last month JFK averaged 37.2 and Islip and Farmingdale were some 3 degrees cooler.

[lee59]

From 1920-1960 the average yearly precipitation at Central Park was 42 inches. From 2000 to the present it is 51 inches, quite a difference.

[bluewave]

Warm spots in NJ could make a run on 70° Tuesday. Then the next chance of 70° by Saturday. But onshore flow to east should cap highs into the 60s. 
 

[psv88]

53 now. As of a few days ago it looked like today would stay in the 40s. Typical stick season temp over performance 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

53 now. As of a few days ago it looked like today would stay in the 40s. Typical stick season temp over performance 

Today may end up warmer than Wednesday and Thursday 

[donsutherland1]

Milder air streamed into the region this afternoon, boosting readings into the lower 50s in parts of the area.

It will turn noticeably milder tomorrow. The unseasonably mild weather could then continue through the remainder of the week. The March 10-17 period will see temperatures average much above normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Parts of the region will likely experience their warmest weather so far this season during the warm spell. Rain could arrive on Sunday and continue into Monday.

The risk of a moderate (4" or more) in the New York City area remains low through at least the first three weeks of March. A significant or substantial snowfall in New York City is unlikely for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season.

The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February dissipated during the first week of March. However, the peak magnitude of that previous PNA ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops.  

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring.

The SOI was +6.17 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.177 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.1° (3.3° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 56 with full sun and breezy.