March 2025

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Intervals in days or between storms?

Any way to do both?

I know you obviously understand the difference, but I'm not sure everyone gets the difference between a six inch calendar day and the time period between six inch events, overlapping midnight. The same for four inch events. 

[snowman19]

Shocker! Yet another stratospheric event that is going to fail to downwell and couple with the troposphere. Same old story for 5 months in a row now. The Joe Bastardi wishcasts/dreams of a big winter return late month are toast
 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Shocker! Yet another stratospheric event that is going to fail to downwell and couple with the troposphere. Same old story for 5 months in a row now
 

Good. Bring on the warmth

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We arrived at 7 years due to this being the lowest 7 year snowfall average across the coastal region. So absent a big shift to 50”+ seasons like what happened after past 7 year stretches, in 3 years it will become the new lowest 10 year snow mean. And if the following seasons stay as low then a new 15 year mean.

My guess is that the snowfall across our area peaked in 17-18 and 18-19 began a decline in our snowfall. The only question is if we will see a small rebound in the coming seasons before falling again as the climate continues to warm. It makes sense since warmer winters in the long run lead to less snow. So the snowfall average will eventually fall under 20” around our area. But there could be some ups and downs before arriving at that permanently.

 

it's a pity because we were so close to getting a 30.0" snowfall mean for the official 30 year period from 1991-2020

Would it a 30.0" average if we adjusted the 30 year period to 1993-2022?

 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

@bluewave why is the 7 year snowfall running mean most significant? 

In other words how did we arrive to 7 years instead of 5 or 10 or some other number?

It's arbitrary like most stats.  Weather stats are becoming like sports stats where you can manipulate them to fit whatever you want, good or bad.  

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Any way to do both?

I know you obviously understand the difference, but I'm not sure everyone gets the difference between a six inch calendar day and the time period between six inch events, overlapping midnight. The same for four inch events. 

it should really be between storms, what falls on one calendar day is pretty subjective.... why should a new day begin at midnight? And what if 1 inch falls before midnight and 5 inches falls after midnight? It's the same storm so what if it doesn't match some arbitrary definition of when a day should begin?  I've always thought a new day should begin at sunrise, but that's creates some issues with length of day.

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It's arbitrary like most stats.  Weather stats are becoming like sports stats where you can manipulate them to fit whatever you want, good or bad.  

This 7 year data conforms to what has been happening over the last 30 to 60 years. So you make an error when saying it’s only 7 years and arbitrary. It’s not singling anything out but rather it’s matching the longer term existing trend. 

From the 60s into the early 90s my area had a cold and stable temperature pattern. So the areas around NYC had mostly mid range snowfall seasons. Very few much above normal and much below normal snowfall. 

Since the 90s we have shifted to an all or nothing snowfall distribution pattern with hardly any snowfall seasons near the middle of the distribution. So our snowfall has become much more extreme with well below and well above dominating. This 30 year shift has occurred against the backdrop of rapidly warming temperatures. The record snowfall highs from 09-10 to 17-18 and the record lows since 18-19 perfectly conform to this 30 year snowfall distribution shift. 

In the colder era before the mid 90s, the NYC area could reach the middle range of 19” to 31” seasons without historic KU benchmark NESIS storms. So a colder climate provided more options of reaching this mid range.Obviously, the KU seasons were the ones which finished well above the mean. 

So NYC Metro and other locations have fewer options of reaching this middle range. Many seasons jumped above this range from 09-10 to 17-18 relying exclusively on a 1 in 100 year phenomenal concentration of Benchmark storms with a significantly higher concentration of NESIS events experienced in the past. So my guess is that relying on a another 9 year run like that is probably a low probability chance of reoccurrence.

Now we are left with the current all or nothing pattern where the higher and middle range distributions seeing smaller probabilities. So it’s no surprise when we lost the benchmark tracks for much of  the time since 18-19 ,that the region is at the all-time record lows for snowfall. Past lows near this range over 7 year periods were primarily a result of drier conditions and not record warmth. These were followed by numerous 50” + seasons which were easier to come by in a colder climate. So as we continue to warm, both storm tracks and the seasonal background temperature warming provide less opportunities for snow. Having to rely so heavily on just one type of storm track has left us open to repeated well below normal snowfall seasons last 7 years. Since the Great Lakes cutters, I-78 to I-80 hugger tracks, and suppressed Southern Stream lows with the faster Northern Stream of the Pacific had lead to record low snowfall.

The data suggests a few ways this could go in the coming years. First, my guess is that the longer term snowfall peaked in 17-18 around NYC .Then 18-19 began the decline that has been expected in a warmer climate reducing snowfall chances. Option one is that the last 7 years continues and represents the new normal for snowfall. Option two is a return to occasional benchmark storm tracks with an uptick in snowfall next several seasons but coming up well short of 09-10 to 17-18. This would be followed by another downtown in the 2030s if it did occur as temperatures continue to warm. Option 3 is a return to the 09-10 to 17-18 benchmark era which I give the smallest chances to.

[HailMan06]

32 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So wake up later 

A lot of us don’t have that luxury.

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No they are not . Early sunsets are the best.

No one wants an early sunset in the warm months

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

No one wants an early sunset in the warm months

Just like no one wants to be walking around in a hoodie and gloves and a scarf in the warm months either.

Well, maybe NYCWinter does....

 

[MJO812]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/polar-vortex-collapses-sending-a-late-season-and-largest-cold-to-us/ss-AA1AmFAo?fbclid=IwY2xjawI5VU1leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHWZEL8KgEW2ZwjbEZMdQOB1hEzrd7BFJ5HBjyfclizVrx41vS0COsmmz2g_aem_xzn5A9BdtLx27_mubqn_nQ

[SACRUS]

 

Still breezy but warm in the sun - up to 48.   

[SACRUS]

 

last 70  readings:   Still think we fall short this week, especially in NYC.  May be pushing later in March

 

EWR: 11/18
NYC: 11/7

[psv88]

38 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

A lot of us don’t have that luxury.

Everyone has a choice…

[donsutherland1]

58 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Any way to do both?

I know you obviously understand the difference, but I'm not sure everyone gets the difference between a six inch calendar day and the time period between six inch events, overlapping midnight. The same for four inch events. 

It will take time to research all of the storms. But yes, it can be done.

[psv88]

Islip gusting to 39.  Brutal day 

[bluewave]

Most impressive westerly flow from January into March of the decade so far. 

 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This 7 year data conforms to what has been happening over the last 30 to 60 years. So you make an error when saying it’s only 7 years and arbitrary. It’s not singling anything out but rather it’s matching the longer term existing trend. 

From the 60s into the early 90s my area had a cold and stable temperature pattern. So the areas around NYC had mostly mid range snowfall seasons. Very few much above normal and much below normal snowfall. 

Since the 90s we have shifted to an all or nothing snowfall distribution pattern with hardly any snowfall seasons near the middle of the distribution. So our snowfall has become much more extreme with well below and well above dominating. This 30 year shift has occurred against the backdrop of rapidly warming temperatures. The record snowfall highs from 09-10 to 17-18 and the record lows since 18-19 perfectly conform to this 30 year snowfall distribution shift. 

In the colder era before the mid 90s, the NYC area could reach the middle range of 19” to 31” seasons without historic KU benchmark NESIS storms. So a colder climate provided more options of reaching this mid range.Obviously, the KU seasons were the ones which finished well above the mean. 

So NYC Metro and other locations have fewer options of reaching this middle range. Many seasons jumped above this range from 09-10 to 17-18 relying exclusively on a 1 in 100 year phenomenal concentration of Benchmark storms with a significantly higher concentration of NESIS events experienced in the past. So my guess is that relying on a another 9 year run like that is probably a low probability chance of reoccurrence.

Now we are left with the current all or nothing pattern where the higher and middle range distributions seeing smaller probabilities. So it’s no surprise when we lost the benchmark tracks for much of  the time since 18-19 ,that the region is at the all-time record lows for snowfall. Past lows near this range over 7 year periods were primarily a result of drier conditions and not record warmth. These were followed by numerous 50” + seasons which were easier to come by in a colder climate. So as we continue to warm, both storm tracks and the seasonal background temperature warming provide less opportunities for snow. Having to rely so heavily on just one type of storm track has left us open to repeated well below normal snowfall seasons last 7 years. Since the Great Lakes cutters, I-78 to I-80 hugger tracks, and suppressed Southern Stream lows with the faster Northern Stream of the Pacific had lead to record low snowfall.

The data suggests a few ways this could go in the coming years. First, my guess is that the longer term snowfall peaked in 17-18 around NYC .Then 18-19 began the decline that has been expected in a warmer climate reducing snowfall chances. Option one is that the last 7 years continues and represents the new normal for snowfall. Option two is a return to occasional benchmark storm tracks with an uptick in snowfall next several seasons but coming up well short of 09-10 to 17-18. This would be followed by another downtown in the 2030s if it did occur as temperatures continue to warm. Option 3 is a return to the 09-10 to 17-18 benchmark era which I give the smallest chances to.

I have to say this is a very good post and exactly reflects my thoughts that I have been sharing to others. 

The message isn't usually received positively lol

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Any way to do both?

I know you obviously understand the difference, but I'm not sure everyone gets the difference between a six inch calendar day and the time period between six inch events, overlapping midnight. The same for four inch events. 

That would be great if Don can do it.

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I have to say this is a very good post and exactly reflects my thoughts that I have been sharing to others. 

The message isn't usually received positively lol

I think the snow seasons over the next 10-15 years will be telling in terms of where we are truly headed or if this current period is just a temporary downturn.  I suspect through that we are slowly and steadily trending downward.  At some point it should hopefully revert to something better but I would not want to guess when that might happen.

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I think the snow seasons over the next 10-15 years will be telling in terms of where we are truly headed or if this current period is just a temporary downturn.  I suspect through that we are slowly and steadily trending downward.  At some point it should hopefully revert to something better but I would not want to guess when that might happen.

When the Pacific becomes less hostile, our snow outcomes will improve. If New Orleans and Pensacola can still get 9” snowstorms, I’m not worried yet about it becoming too warm overall here. The overall warming is definitely a factor in marginal events to load the dice toward more rain, for example SWFEs where another degree cooler at the surface and mid levels would’ve given 1-2” more snow, but I think it makes more of an impact through these semipermanent marine heatwaves that are affecting the jet stream patterns and storm tracks. 

[Cfa]

Massive smoke plume near the LIE (mid 60’s), forest fire?

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

Massive smoke plume near the LIE (mid 60’s), forest fire?

 

On radar it looks like it's south of Riverhead 

[Cfa]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

 

On radar it looks like it's south of Riverhead 

From Medford heading east. I saw it all the way from ISP, over 20 miles away.

[psv88]

Wow. It’s visible on OKC radar too

[Cfa]

Looks like the area Gabreski Airport area, which was the sight of a wildfire decades ago, the pines there are all miniature. Sunrise Highway looks closed according to Apple Maps.

[psv88]

Per Newsday the fires are around sunrise highway which is closed 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Per Newsday the fires are around sunrise highway which is closed 

Wow, looks like right around Exit 63. Very pronounced on radar.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wow, looks like right around Exit 63. Very pronounced on radar.

One in Brooklyn also. Hopefully, we can start getting a wetter pattern before the summer. As this drought and stronger winds isn’t a good combination. 

 

[uofmiami]