March 2025

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

28” is well below normal there, it’s more like Central Park average. Their recent 49” 1991-2020 average is significantly inflated from their crazy winters like 2014-15 but even with their longer term low to mid-40s average it’s pretty significantly below normal. But they got snow from SWFEs that happen in almost all Nina winters where we just had the one decent event. All in all should’ve been so much better given the cold. Glad it’s over. 

yeah this cold was widespread, Boston was cold DJF all three months too

[winterwx21]

So tired of these strong chilly winds. Another day of chilly wind tomorrow and then in starts to improve on Sunday. Really looking forward to the beautiful weather next week. I think we have a good chance to hit 65 on Monday and 70 on Tuesday here. 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC is still far from its record:

Yeah this period is painful, but still nothing like the late 80s and late 90s ones.

[Dark Star]

33 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

So tired of these strong chilly winds. Another day of chilly wind tomorrow and then in starts to improve on Sunday. Really looking forward to the beautiful weather next week. I think we have a good chance to hit 65 on Monday and 70 on Tuesday here. 

I don't know.  It just seems windy all too often over the last 10 years, or so.  Maybe I notice more since I have less hair?

[Uniblab]

51 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I don't know.  It just seems windy all too often over the last 10 years, or so.  Maybe I notice more since I have less hair?

Join the club. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

I don't know.  It just seems windy all too often over the last 10 years, or so.  Maybe I notice more since I have less hair?

government weather control device to promote wind turbines lmao

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

I don't know.  It just seems windy all too often over the last 10 years, or so.  Maybe I notice more since I have less hair?

JFK record windiest winter at 35 mph on average

Ironically their least windiest winter was 1995-96

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC is still far from its record:

Don how is 1917-18 on this list, wasn't that an exceptionally cold and snowy winter?

I see how three prior periods of my life are on this list though:

 

1983-1986

1987-1990

1996-2000

 

Without a couple of storms, 1983-1990 could have been number 1 lol.

 

[MANDA]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how is 1917-18 on this list, wasn't that an exceptionally cold and snowy winter?

I see how three prior periods of my life are on this list though:

 

1983-1986

1987-1990

1996-2000

 

Without a couple of storms, 1983-1990 could have been number 1 lol.

 

That chart is interesting in many ways.

Not the least of which was #8 was broken by the Blizzard of 1888.

Lots of great stats inside that list.

Found it really interesting.

 

[forkyfork]

less than an inch on the entire euro run

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

less than an inch on the entire euro run

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

and?

[IrishRob17]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
355 PM EST Fri Mar 7 2025

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
090000-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
355 PM EST Fri Mar 7 2025

...ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD SATURDAY...

The combination of low relative humidity values near 30 percent
and northwest winds gusting 30 to 35 mph will create an elevated
risk for fire spread across the region on Saturday.

Exercise caution handling any potential ignition sources,
including machinery, cigarettes, and matches. Any fires that
ignite will have the potential to spread quickly.

This forecast considered meteorological, fuel, and land
conditions, and has been developed in coordination with NY, NJ,
and CT fire and land management officials.

[SACRUS]

 

Wet California the next week

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how is 1917-18 on this list, wasn't that an exceptionally cold and snowy winter?

I see how three prior periods of my life are on this list though:

 

1983-1986

1987-1990

1996-2000

 

Without a couple of storms, 1983-1990 could have been number 1 lol.

 

December 13-14, 1917 saw a 9.5" snowstorm. Then there were no more 6" or above snowstorms until February 4-7, 1920 when a storm dumped 17.5".

[donsutherland1]

A cool but not exceptionally cold weekend lies ahead. The chill will be short-lived. It will turn noticeably milder early next week. Parts of the region could experience their warmest temperatures so far this spring during the warm spell. The unseasonably mild weather could then continue through the remainder of next week.

The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first half of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures.

The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February has dissipated. However, the peak magnitude of that previous PNA ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops.  

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring.

The SOI was +9.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.487 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (3.5° above normal).

 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

and?

 

And you're off by half. 

 

There's a giant blob of 1.8 to 2 inch amounts on that map. 

 

That's about average for a two week period for this part of the country. 

[forkyfork]

34 minutes ago, Sundog said:

 

And you're off by half. 

 

There's a giant blob of 1.8 to 2 inch amounts on that map. 

 

That's about average for a two week period for this part of the country. 

when does the wet period start? does the pattern support it? is the mean being skewed by a few excessive members?

[Sundog]

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

when does the wet period start? does the pattern support it? is the mean being skewed by a few excessive members?

My bad I didn't realize he posted the ensembles when you were talking about the OP. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, MANDA said:

That chart is interesting in many ways.

Not the least of which was #8 was broken by the Blizzard of 1888.

Lots of great stats inside that list.

Found it really interesting.

 

NYC climate history is a real treasure trove, there may not be another like it anywhere in the world.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC is still far from its record:

Isn't this list somewhat misleading though? Isn't it just calculating calendar days with less than 6 inches of snow and not events? Couldn't the same event have 5 inches of snow through midnight and 5 inches after midnight for a 10 inch storm total and this list would still count that as consecutive days without a six inch snowfall?

[Roger Smith]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Isn't this list somewhat misleading though? Isn't it just calculating calendar days with less than 6 inches of snow and not events? Couldn't the same event have 5 inches of snow through midnight and 5 inches after midnight for a 10 inch storm total and this list would still count that as consecutive days without a six inch snowfall?

I had a look at daily snowfall data to check for 2d totals of 6.0" and found following facts, generally speaking the list is almost intact for absence of 2d 6.0" totals, with one significant exception (1917 to 1921 ended as Don already mentioned with a 3-day total of 17" of snow in Feb 1920). 1949-56 was also reduced to 1949-54. Details follow ...

 

1949 03-01 to 1956 03-15 ... 5.8" Jan 28 (5.5") -29 (0.3") 1952 was closest to invalidating for 2d 6", no other 2d snowfalls exceeded 5" until Jan 10-11 1954 (7.8") broke the streak for 2d at 1409 days (03-01-1949 also removed for being tail end of a 2d 9.8"). ... in third place in revised 2d list.

1996 02-17 to 2000 12-29 ... 5.5" Jan 25 2000, and 5.0" mar 22 1998, were one-day events and no 2d 6.0" snowfalls intervened. As there was snow on 1996 02-17, interval is shortened by one day. This (1996 02-18 to 2000 12-29) became longest interval with no 2d 6.0" events at 1777 days. 

1987 01-23 to 1990 12-27 ... 5.8" Jan 3-4 1988 was largest 2d fall so, taking away one day (1990 12-27) this interval stays at 1434 days in second place for absence of 2d 6.0".

1929 02-22 to 1932 12-16 ... 3.9" Dec 23-24 1930 was largest 2d fall so entire interval was also devoid of any 2d 6.0" falls, at 1394 days, it is fourth longest. 

1917 12-14 to 1921 02-19 ... 5.9" Jan 22 1918 narrowly avoided taking 38 days off this interval, but 5.7" Feb 3, 5.9" Feb 4 and 5.4 " Feb 5 1920 were well over 6" for 2d and as it had snowed on 1917-12-14 the revised interval dropped to 1917 12-15 to 1920 02-02, for only 780 days. 

1971 01-02 to 1974 02-07 ... 5.7" Feb 19 1972 and 5.9" Jan 9-10 1974 failed to reduce this interval which stays at 1133 days (fifth place now tied with 2022-25).

The present interval starting 2022 01-30 to 2025 03-07 is devoid of any 2d intervals greater than 4".  

Thus only one of the 6.0" avoidance spells drops out ahead of the present one, if we take two day totals as criterion (the 1917-21 interval). Only one other (1949-56 >> 1949-54) was significantly shortened, while remaining ahead of 2022-25. 

Looking at the other three intervals already passed, 

1885-1888 had no 2d falls greater than 6.0" in winters of 1885-86 and 1886-87 or Jan-Feb 1888. 

1983-1986 interval was shortened by 6.9" falling mar 8-9, 1984.

1975-1978 is also intact despite close call in Jan 1977. 

 

[SRRTA22]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

when does the wet period start? does the pattern support it? is the mean being skewed by a few excessive members?

You really like aqi above 200 , I mean not for nothing those orange skies were cool

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I had a look at daily snowfall data to check for 2d totals of 6.0" and found following facts, generally speaking the list is almost intact for absence of 2d 6.0" totals, with one significant exception (1917 to 1921 ended as Don already mentioned with a 3-day total of 17" of snow in Feb 1920). 1949-56 was also reduced to 1949-54. Details follow ...

 

1949 03-01 to 1956 03-15 ... 5.8" Jan 28 (5.5") -29 (0.3") 1952 was closest to invalidating for 2d 6", no other 2d snowfalls exceeded 5" until Jan 10-11 1954 (7.8") broke the streak for 2d at 1409 days (03-01-1949 also removed for being tail end of a 2d 9.8"). ... in third place in revised 2d list.

1996 02-17 to 2000 12-29 ... 5.5" Jan 25 2000, and 5.0" mar 22 1998, were one-day events and no 2d 6.0" snowfalls intervened. As there was snow on 1996 02-17, interval is shortened by one day. This (1996 02-18 to 2000 12-29) became longest interval with no 2d 6.0" events at 1777 days. 

1987 01-23 to 1990 12-27 ... 5.8" Jan 3-4 1988 was largest 2d fall so, taking away one day (1990 12-27) this interval stays at 1434 days in second place for absence of 2d 6.0".

1929 02-22 to 1932 12-16 ... 3.9" Dec 23-24 1930 was largest 2d fall so entire interval was also devoid of any 2d 6.0" falls, at 1394 days, it is fourth longest. 

1917 12-14 to 1921 02-19 ... 5.9" Jan 22 1918 narrowly avoided taking 38 days off this interval, but 5.7" Feb 3, 5.9" Feb 4 and 5.4 " Feb 5 1920 were well over 6" for 2d and as it had snowed on 1917-12-14 the revised interval dropped to 1917 12-15 to 1920 02-02, for only 780 days. 

1971 01-02 to 1974 02-07 ... 5.7" Feb 19 1972 and 5.9" Jan 9-10 1974 failed to reduce this interval which stays at 1133 days (fifth place now tied with 2022-25).

The present interval starting 2022 01-30 to 2025 03-07 is devoid of any 2d intervals greater than 4".  

Thus only one of the 6.0" avoidance spells drops out ahead of the present one, if we take two day totals as criterion (the 1917-21 interval). Only one other (1949-56 >> 1949-54) was significantly shortened, while remaining ahead of 2022-25. 

Looking at the other three intervals already passed, 

1885-1888 had no 2d falls greater than 6.0" in winters of 1885-86 and 1886-87 or Jan-Feb 1888. 

1983-1986 interval was shortened by 6.9" falling mar 8-9, 1984.

1975-1978 is also intact despite close call in Jan 1977. 

 

That three day total in February 1920 was the greatest winter storm in NYC history and would have been 50" of snow if it was all snow.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

You really like aqi above 200 , I mean not for nothing those orange skies were cool

Yes they were, it looked like being on Mars and it smelled like being in the woods :-)

[bluewave]

The most significant snowfall metric for NYC and the whole area near the coast is the 7 year snowfall running mean. This is at record lows for any 7 year stretches on record. The major issue going forward is that those were all in the colder era and were mostly the result of dry conditions. So it was much easier to end a snow drought since the moisture always returned and it was colder. It’s more challenging to end a snow drought based on too warm for heavy snow like we have seen in the last 7 years as the background climate warms.

This winter was a great example of too warm for heavy snow since the storm tracks were so warm. The average winter temperature on the precipitation days above .25 of liquid was 41.0°. That is way too warm for heavy snows as the under 4” run continued in NYC. This wasn’t the case in the past when it was too dry for heavy snows. All the previous snow droughts ended with very big 50”+ seasons in the following years. But that is going to be a a significant challenge in this much warmer climate. 

Lowest NYC  7 year snowfall totals and the big seasons which followed 

2019 to 2025……14.9”

1986 to 1992……16.3”…..93-94….53.4”…..95-96…75.6”

1970 to 1977…..…17.1”……77-78…50.7”….78-79….29.4”

1950 to 1956…….17.0”…..57-58….44.7”….60-61…..54.7”

1927 to 1933……15.4”……33-34….52.0”…..34-35….33.8”….35-36….33.2”

 

[Sundog]

@bluewave why is the 7 year snowfall running mean most significant? 

In other words how did we arrive to 7 years instead of 5 or 10 or some other number?

[snowman19]

It has literally found every way possible to avoid major snowstorms in the PHL-NYC-BOS corridor since the 2022-23 winter. Is it just simply just bad luck for the last 3 years or did something completely change synoptically with AGW? 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

It has literally found every way possible to avoid major snowstorms in the PHL-NYC-BOS corridor since the 2022-23 winter. Is it just simply just bad luck for the last 3 years or did something completely change synoptically with AGW? 

Bad luck I think. 

At some point in the future though even good tracks will yield rain along the coast more often. Not always, but a higher probability. 

 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Getting a heavy snow squall right now here in Gosen, NY