March 2025

[Feen]

moderate rain in the city feels warm 50 degrees right now! The heavier line is still just to our west. I wonder if there's any severe weather with that line

[mikeysed]

Just now, Feen said:

moderate rain in the city feels warm 50 degrees right now! The heavier line is still just to our west. I wonder if there's any severe weather with that line

Just went through it in Northwestern Essex County, 0 t storms

[Allsnow]

Why the concern about this busting? 

[Feen]

5 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Just went through it in Northwestern Essex County, 0 t storms

maybe south Jersey has a chance.

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Why the concern about this busting? 

 

NAM and GFS kept showing a weak area in the precip shield for central Jersey south. 

Needless to say they will be dead wrong. 

[the_other_guy]

JFK just switched to the dreaded ILS 13L due to winds.

 

that happens less than five times a year.

 

Always a nice brutal day for delays

[uofmiami]

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

JFK just switched to the dreaded ILS 13L due to winds.

 

that happens less than five times a year.

 

Always a nice brutal day for delays

Works for me, no planes around 2K feet on approach to 22L over my house.

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So are we are going to see benchmark storms with 50 degrees and rain? 

Impossible! Benchmark storms are extinct!

[steve392]

Been non-stop downpour for an hour at my house.  Really wish I ad a working rain gauge. 

[Snowlover11]

nice drink, finally wash the damn salt wway.

[ag3]

Heavy rain here.

 

[SACRUS]

1.3 in the bucket so far

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

JFK just switched to the dreaded ILS 13L due to winds.

that happens less than five times a year.

Always a nice brutal day for delays

For anyone else who knows as little about air traffic control as I do about weather and air traffic control, but was interested in this, I just did some quick googling:  "When the combination of minimums and winds require using the ILS to 13L, it creates major airspace issues, particularly with TEB and LGA. Hence, they only use that approach when all other options have been exhausted."  I guess that answers my question on why using it translates to delays.

[ag3]

.86” so far in the rain gauge with another slug of rain heading in from SNJ.

[Stormlover74]

First 1" day since November 21st at ewr and only the 2nd since August

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

nice drink, finally wash the damn salt wway.

and hopefully most of these filthy piles of snow

[Allsnow]

Just now, Allsnow said:

 

 

[Stormlover74]

One last heavy batch to move through 

[TJW014]

Much, much, much needed rain down here. Up to 1.22" so far

[donsutherland1]

Rain will continue into early tomorrow. By the time the storm departs, a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely from Philadelphia to Boston. The highest amounts could occur on parts of Long Island. Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures topping out in the middle 50s.

Following the storm, it will turn somewhat colder, but not exceptionally cold for the weekend. Some additional precipitation is possible during the weekend, but the weekend should be mainly dry.

The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first 10 days of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures.

The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February has all but broken down. However, the peak magnitude of that ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops.  

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring.

The SOI was +4.55 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.022 today.

 

 

[Jersey Andrew]

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Rain will continue into early tomorrow. By the time the storm departs, a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely from Philadelphia to Boston. The highest amounts could occur on parts of Long Island. Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures topping out in the middle 50s.

Following the storm, it will turn somewhat colder, but not exceptionally cold for the weekend. Some additional precipitation is possible during the weekend, but the weekend should be mainly dry.

The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first 10 days of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures.

The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February has all but broken down. However, the peak magnitude of that ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops.  

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring.

The SOI was +4.55 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.022 today.

 

 

Hope next week is still looking mild in NYC as I am planning a trip there. Guess we won’t get that March snow Don.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

One last heavy batch to move through 

1.64" here. I'm glad we got a much needed soaking. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

1.64" here. I'm glad we got a much needed soaking. 

Yep met or exceeded models for once

[Sundog]

Looks like yet another round is coming up to impact the tristate area. 

[psv88]

Unrelenting monsoon out here…

[TJW014]

Fire hose continues. 1.92" 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Hope next week is still looking mild in NYC as I am planning a trip there. Guess we won’t get that March snow Don.

Probably little or no snow this month.

[psv88]

Firehouse keeps developing, someone will exceed 2”

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Firehouse keeps developing, someone will exceed 2”

Good, let’s bank what we can now. A lot will be running off though since the ground is partly frozen still. 

[Rjay]

Absolutely pouring here