March 2025

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Omaha finally getting theirs. Not a lot of snow but it's 58 right now so this will be kinda crazy tonight 

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of one to three inches expected, as much as five inches possible.  Winds gusting as high as 65 mph. Flash freeze expected.

a blizzard warning with 1-3 inches of snow, I would be poking my eyes out lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Negative nao trending stronger for next week 

looks very warm for the 12th at least.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Strong SSE flow into the Poconos/Catskills, could be some fairly heavy amounts there which is great for reservoirs. 

I wonder what kind of winds there will be there (and here too)?

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

12/09 also had a track a little too far east (although we did well here on Long Island-- 15 inches even at JFK.)  I didn't know January 1996 had any virga though and I thought that the much colder temperatures resulted in a higher snow to liquid ratio (like PD2 and February 1983 and January 2016.)

 

Unfortunately lower temps do not always correlate to higher snowfall. You need lift as well.

In my home town we had 4 full hours of verga and still ended up with a foot, but could have been much more.

Maybe 96 is a bad example as instead of 12 degrees and snow you would have 15 degrees and snow today lol. 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

looks very warm for the 12th at least.

EPS doesn’t break 60 now 

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we are seeing more snow in January than we used to.  The 80s Januarys were colder, but aside from January 1987 we did not see any KU events in January.  And I don't believe there was a single January 20"+ HECS until January 1996 came along.  And now we've had multiple.  January 2011 (19 inches)-- I'm putting that in the list because it was so close to 20, and of course January 2016.

 

Yup. I honestly believe we can end up with higher average snowfall than the 30 year 70 through 99 period.

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS doesn’t break 60 now 

it's 7 degrees too cool at hour 6. ewr is 59 right now

 

[snowman19]

59 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS cooled off for next week haha

 

38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

The “strat warm”/final warming is too little, too late. Game over. Before any impacts are even felt with the lag, if there are even any tropospheric impacts that is, since literally every stratospheric event in the last 5 months (since November) has failed to downwell and couple, we will be into astronomical spring at that point. I’m going to laugh if we see benchmark coastal lows with temps in the mid 40’s and rain come late March and early April lol Then again, it doesn’t rain anymore so…..

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

 

The “strat warm”/final warming is too little, too late. Game over. Before any impacts are even felt with the lag, if there are even any tropospheric impacts that is, since literally every stratospheric event in the last 5 months (since November) has failed to downwell and couple, we will be into astronomical spring at that point. I’m going to laugh if we see benchmark coastal lows with temps in the mid 40’s and rain come late March and early April lol Then again, it doesn’t rain anymore so…..

I'm not sure why anyone would be happy with temperatures in the 40s lol.  Some of these people act like it means snow, it definitely does not.  Anything less than mid 50s would not be a good thing.

[bluewave]

The EPS only had 40s last Saturday and me made it to the mid-60s. So it has been running a cold bias all winter. These are the 90 day averages so individual days like last Saturday can have much greater bias. 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Unfortunately lower temps do not always correlate to higher snowfall. You need lift as well.

In my home town we had 4 full hours of verga and still ended up with a foot, but could have been much more.

Maybe 96 is a bad example as instead of 12 degrees and snow you would have 15 degrees and snow today lol. 

The funny thing with these megastorms is that by the end of the storm we were up near freezing (or upper 20s at least) so I was glad we started in the low teens.  January 1996 I think even mixed for a bit on the south shore, but it certainly did not affect snowfall totals at all (we were all over 20 inches and even 32 inches out by Bay Shore.)

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The funny thing with these megastorms is that by the end of the storm we were up near freezing (or upper 20s at least) so I was glad we started in the low teens.  January 1996 I think even mixed for a bit on the south shore, but it certainly did not affect snowfall totals at all (we were all over 20 inches and even 32 inches out by Bay Shore.)

 

Yeah even Baltimore mixed but had over 30 inches.

Philly did not mix at all and had 32.

Central Park did not mix either.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

The “strat warm”/final warming is too little, too late. Game over. Before any impacts are even felt with the lag, if there are even any tropospheric impacts that is, since literally every stratospheric event in the last 5 months (since November) has failed to downwell and couple, we will be into astronomical spring at that point. I’m going to laugh if we see benchmark coastal lows with temps in the mid 40’s and rain come late March and early April lol Then again, it doesn’t rain anymore so…..

The EPO will be positive with a -PNA so the -AO will just trap seasonal Pacific air underneath. The good news is that we can get some much needed rainfall with the very fast Pacific flow continuing into late March. Hopefully, the dry pattern since last fall will gradually abate by the time we get to the summer. 

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPO will be positive with a -PNA so the -AO will just trap seasonal Pacific air underneath. The good news is that we can get some much needed rainfall with the very fast Pacific flow continuing into late March. Hopefully, the dry pattern since last fall will gradually abate by the time we get to the summer. 

Heck no, we need to finally return to our hot and dry summers we used to have, rather than the less hot very humid summers of the last few years.  And I think that's what will happen, because we are finally returning back to the cyclically drier years with westerly flow.  The wet period will likely be a blip on the screen, much like the Mid November through end of December period was. We need to adjust to what should be our normal annual rainfall which is around 40 inches, not the nearly 50 inches it has been, which is normal for the Gulf coast not here.

 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The EPS only had 40s last Saturday and me made it to the mid-60s. So it has been running a cold bias all winter. These are the 90 day averages so individual days like last Saturday can have much greater bias. 

 

Where do you get these great maps from?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I think the coldest we are going to see from this point is highs in the lower 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s but I think over most of the next 2 weeks except for just a couple of days 50s+ we'll see highs upper 40s and lows lower 30s. I do not think the NYC Metro Region will see any more accumulating snows. Maybe a flurry. I think there is a 50% chance we hit 70 degrees briefly on one of the warmer days in the next 2 weeks.

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

A storm will bring 0.50"-1.50" of rain from Philadelphia to Boston on tomorrow into Thursday. The highest amounts could be located across parts of Long Island. It will be unseasonably mild with temperatures topping out in the middle 50s on both days.

Following the storm, it will turn somewhat colder, but not exceptionally cold. Some additional precipitation is possible during the weekend.

The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first 10 days of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures.

The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February continues to fade. However, the peak magnitude of that ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops.  

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring.

The SOI was +3.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.724 today.

 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The 70s and 80s still had more snow than we are seeing now.  Also if you go strictly by 4 inch snowfalls, we got at least one of those every year.

I generally agree that we had less snow in those decades, but this decade has been even less snowy by a significant margin plus --much-- warmer.

Yeah, this has been a slightly lower 7 year running mean for snowfall than we had in the 70s and 80s.Those were a result of dry patterns and not warm ones like we have been getting since 18-19.

So it’s less likely that we see multiple 50”+ seasons next few years to break this drought like those ones did in 77-78, and 93-94, and 95-96. Becoming too warm for heavier snows is a bigger hurdle than overcoming the occasional dry spell in a colder climate.

This year was too warm on the days with .25 of precipitation with an average of 41.0°. So the storm tracks made it too warm for much snow this past winter. Other recent winters had both warm storm tracks and average winter temperatures. So the winter average of 34.8° didn’t do us much good since it was mostly on the days without precipitation.

JFK and other local stations new record lowest 7 year snow average of 14.5”. 

 

 

[lee59]

45 here and a south wind that makes it feel cold. Welcome to spring on Long Island.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

 

Where do you get these great maps from?

The maps can be found here: https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

The “strat warm”/final warming is too little, too late. Game over. Before any impacts are even felt with the lag, if there are even any tropospheric impacts that is, since literally every stratospheric event in the last 5 months (since November) has failed to downwell and couple, we will be into astronomical spring at that point. I’m going to laugh if we see benchmark coastal lows with temps in the mid 40’s and rain come late March and early April lol Then again, it doesn’t rain anymore so…..

He’s talking about the higher elevations of northern New England and the daks. above 2,000’ snow season ends late April early may. Down here, sure, bring on spring. The only March storm of my lifetime I would like to repeate is 93.
 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

He’s talking about the higher elevations of northern New England and the daks. above 2,000’ snow season ends late April early may. Down here, sure, bring on spring. The only March storm of my lifetime I would like to repeate is 93.
 

3/22/18 was my favorite March storm but that’s probably a once in few decade setup the way that month turned out. 

[nycwinter]

superstorm of 93 a storm you may never see again in our lifetime everything came together..

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPO will be positive with a -PNA so the -AO will just trap seasonal Pacific air underneath. The good news is that we can get some much needed rainfall with the very fast Pacific flow continuing into late March. Hopefully, the dry pattern since last fall will gradually abate by the time we get to the summer. 

Yeah this is a good pattern for consistent rainfall. Fast pacific jet to the rescue for once

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

3/22/18 was my favorite March storm but that’s probably a once in few decade setup the way that month turned out. 

I was in the city for that one and it wasn’t nearly as impressive as on the island. That storm was all about maximizing the environment with that ridiculous banding that set up over eastern nassua and western Suffolk. 

93 was a powerhouse and the coastal impacts were just as impressive as the inland snow. Glaciers floating in the coastal inundation that froze to solid ice. Would love to see a triple phaser ride the bench mark…

[forkyfork]

another -nao ridge bridge 

[psv88]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

He’s talking about the higher elevations of northern New England and the daks. above 2,000’ snow season ends late April early may. Down here, sure, bring on spring. The only March storm of my lifetime I would like to repeate is 93.
 

Long Island had a massive March blizzard in 2017 I believe? Islip had like 40 inches that month…

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

He’s talking about the higher elevations of northern New England and the daks. above 2,000’ snow season ends late April early may. Down here, sure, bring on spring. The only March storm of my lifetime I would like to repeate is 93.
 

April 1982 I want to see that again, April 1996, April 2003 and April 2018 were also pretty good.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I was in the city for that one and it wasn’t nearly as impressive as on the island. That storm was all about maximizing the environment with that ridiculous banding that set up over eastern nassua and western Suffolk. 

93 was a powerhouse and the coastal impacts were just as impressive as the inland snow. Glaciers floating in the coastal inundation that froze to solid ice. Would love to see a triple phaser ride the bench mark…

December 1992 was superior to March 1993 though.  Living through December 1992, that was a much rarer more unique more powerful storm for us.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think the coldest we are going to see from this point is highs in the lower 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s but I think over most of the next 2 weeks except for just a couple of days 50s+ we'll see highs upper 40s and lows lower 30s. I do not think the NYC Metro Region will see any more accumulating snows. Maybe a flurry. I think there is a 50% chance we hit 70 degrees briefly on one of the warmer days in the next 2 weeks.

WX/PT

March monthly snowfall of 0.0 I wonder how often that has happened?