March 2025

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i am going to enjoy sunday and monday i  will wear a hoodie under my thick winter coat wear hat gloves and facemask.

I think you're in the extreme minority 

[bluewave]

Still looking like our first 70 between March 10th and 17th. The good news for spring fans is that this will be another Southeast Ridge link up with the -AO. This is what happened a few weeks ago and parts of Long Island got close to 60° when the AO dropped to -5. So the -AO hasn’t been a cold signal like it was in the past. 
 

2025-02-16

57

39

15Feb2025

-5.2570

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still looking like our first 70 between March 10th and 17th. The good news for spring fans is that this will be another Southeast Ridge link up with the -AO. This is what happened a few weeks ago and parts of Long Island got close to 60° when the AO dropped to -5. So the -AO hasn’t been a cold signal like it was in the past. 
 

2025-02-16

57

39

15Feb2025

-5.2570

 

 

so we're talking about another westerly wind heat burst instead of the southerly wind which makes it chilly here?

 

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still looking like our first 70 between March 10th and 17th. The good news for spring fans is that this will be another Southeast Ridge link up with the -AO. This is what happened a few weeks ago and parts of Long Island got close to 60° when the AO dropped to -5. So the -AO hasn’t been a cold signal like it was in the past. 
 

2025-02-16

57

39

15Feb2025

-5.2570

 

 

Looks like we are going to see our warmest temps since early November during that time frame

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still looking like our first 70 between March 10th and 17th. The good news for spring fans is that this will be another Southeast Ridge link up with the -AO. This is what happened a few weeks ago and parts of Long Island got close to 60° when the AO dropped to -5. So the -AO hasn’t been a cold signal like it was in the past. 
 

2025-02-16

57

39

15Feb2025

-5.2570

 

 

70 degrees in the Poconos too-  NICE!!

61-63 here which is pretty good too.

[MJO812]

The snow is over. Another sheared out mess on the models. This has been happening all winter. 

Anyway 22 here. Going to miss these cold temps.

[donsutherland1]

Central Park has fallen to 19° so far. That is the first time Central Park has been in the teens in March since March 7, 2019 when the mercury fell to 18°.

[donsutherland1]

The week ahead on the guidance:

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park has fallen to 19° so far. That is the first time Central Park has been in the teens in March since March 7, 2019 when the mercury fell to 18°.

How many times has Central Park gone from the 60s to the teens or lower within 24 hours, Don?

Also, what was the low at JFK? Thanks!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The week ahead on the guidance:

I'm a little shocked that the percentage of EPS members that have 1 and 2 inches of snow for NYC is that high.  Figured both would be under 10 percent.

[SACRUS]

 

23 / 1 off a low of 18 and highs of 66 Sunday.  Chilly 48 hours before moderating back to normal and above.  Rain 0.75 - >1.00 on Tue night / Wed.  Much warmer by the 10/11 we'll see if it turns wetter.

 

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Still looking like our first 70 between March 10th and 17th. The good news for spring fans is that this will be another Southeast Ridge link up with the -AO. This is what happened a few weeks ago and parts of Long Island got close to 60° when the AO dropped to -5. So the -AO hasn’t been a cold signal like it was in the past. 
 

2025-02-16

57

39

15Feb2025

-5.2570

 

 

Day 10 euro op temp output what can wrong  

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Day 10 euro op temp output what can wrong  

Looks like after this 2 day cold wave, we'll have highs in the 40s and 50s for the next 10 days plus.  This might be it for high temps in the 30s.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 78 (1972)
NYC: 72 (1972)
LGA: 67 (2004)
JFK: 64 (1985)


Lows:

EWR: 12 (1950)
NYC: 9 (1891)
LGA: 13 (1962)
JFK: 12 (1980)

Historical:

1846 - A great storm hit Virginia and the Carolinas. The storm caused half a million dollars damage, and in North Carolina drowned fifty families and a thousand cattle on Notts Island. (David Ludlum)

1927 - Raleigh, NC, was buried under 17.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. Nashville NC received 31 inches of snow. The average snow depth in the state of Carolina was fourteen inches. (The Weather Channel)

1975 - The governor's Tornado&puot; in Atlanta did considerable damage to the governor's mansion and surrounding areas resulting in three deaths and 56.5 million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - A massive winter storm struck the Northern Plains Region. The storm produced up to 33 inches of snow in northeastern South Dakota, at Summit and at Milbank, and also produced high winds which whipped the heavy snow into drifts twenty feet high. (Storm Data)

1987 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced heavy snow in Maine, with 16 inches reported at West Grand Lake and Guilford. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. A tornado at Baton Rouge LA injured two persons, and another tornado caused five million dollars damage at the airport in Lafayette LA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow and high winds plagued the western U.S. Up to 16 inches of snow was reported south of Seattle WA, and more than two feet of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada Range of California. Winds gusted to 89 mph at Hidden Peak UT, and reached 92 mph at Peavine CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Mild weather continued across the northern tier of states. Highs of 52 degrees at Saint Johnsbury VT, 63 degrees at Olympia WA, and 64 degrees at Seattle WA were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

 

2005: Waterspouts were recorded in Redondo Beach in southern California. Pea size hail accumulated to a depth of one inch on Huntington Beach.

 

2012: The March 2 and 3, 2012, a deadly tornado outbreak occurred over a large section of the Southern United States into the Ohio Valley region. The storms resulted in 41 tornado-related fatalities, 22 of which occurred in Kentucky. Tornado-related deaths also occurred in Alabama, Indiana, and Ohio. The outbreak was the second deadliest in early March for the U.S. since official records began in 1950. Only the 1966 Candlestick Park tornado had a higher death toll for a tornadic system in early March. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Louisville, Kentucky.

 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How many times has Central Park gone from the 60s to the teens or lower within 24 hours, Don?

Also, what was the low at JFK? Thanks!

 

22 times:

JFK's low was 23°.

[SACRUS]

 

Daylight:

11H:20M

Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset : 5:49 PM

Roughly equivalent to October 10

 

Gained : 2H05M from the Dec 21 lull

Adding an additional 2m40 -42 seconds of daylight each day the next week (peak daily increase annual)

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

22 times:

JFK's low was 23°.

wow it happened twice in 1972.....

 

 

[SACRUS]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like after this 2 day cold wave, we'll have highs in the 40s and 50s for the next 10 days plus.  This might be it for high temps in the 30s.

 

For highs it looks possible.  Next coldest after today / Mar 3 would be in the Mar 8/9 period but looks like highs would be in the 40s (coldest)  at this stage.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Strong storm in the Mid West will push pressure records in IL, MO.

 

https://www.aol.com/powerful-wind-storm-may-threaten-133301987.html 

 

https://x.com/bobby_boyd1946/status/1895948038360928283?s=46 

 

[SACRUS]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow it happened twice in 1972.....

 

 

March 1972 was a wild month.  After the record warm start 1 - 3rd, the 4th - 15th was very cold with 6 days with highs in the 30s, two dustings of snow and one day below freezing.   

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

March 1972 was a wild month.  After the record warm start 1 - 3rd, the 4th - 15th was very cold with 6 days with highs in the 30s, two dustings of snow and one day below freezing.   

interesting we had a strong el nino the following winter....

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The snow is over. Another sheared out mess on the models. This has been happening all winter. 

Anyway 22 here. Going to miss these cold temps.

I honestly can’t think of any recent winter’s that were this hostile to any major snowstorms in the metro area, literally every storm has trended worse as we got closer…..starting with the Thanksgiving storm the end of November right up until now. Over the last 10 years, we’ve had at least one event trend better as we got closer, this year, nothing at all. It has found every way possible to completely avoid any major snowstorms this winter

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I honestly can’t think of any recent winter’s that were this hostile to any major snowstorms in the metro area, literally every storm has trended worse as we got closer…..starting with the Thanksgiving storm the end of November right up until now. Over the last 10 years, we’ve had at least one event trend better as we got closer, this year, nothing at all. It has found every way possible to completely avoid any major snowstorms this winter

Even last winter was better than this one.

People look at it as a *single digit* snowfall winter but it was actually double digits over most of the area including here (more snow here last winter than this one.)  And if anyone remembers last winter at all, Central Park undermeasured several storms last winter otherwise the snow total would have been very close to this one and definitely double digits.

February last year was MUCH better that's for sure.

 

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think you're in the extreme minority 

Walked my dog.  3 layers and was pretty cozy, except for one street which is a wind tunnel.  Last gasp of cold air?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

Day 10 euro op temp output what can wrong  

The long range ensembles have been running too cool recently. Remember when the EPS only had 40s yesterday and we made it into the 60s? So expect the ensembles to catch up with what some of the warmer OPs have been showing. First 70+ readings of the season will be a good bet at least for the usual warm spots in NJ sometime from March 10th through 17th. But sea breezes could keep Long Island in the 60s. 
 

 

[psv88]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I honestly can’t think of any recent winter’s that were this hostile to any major snowstorms in the metro area, literally every storm has trended worse as we got closer…..starting with the Thanksgiving storm the end of November right up until now. Over the last 10 years, we’ve had at least one event trend better as we got closer, this year, nothing at all. It has found every way possible to completely avoid any major snowstorms this winter

We had one storm this winter that trended better for the island, where we got 5” out here. Models were showing zilch for a while and it came back 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

The long range ensembles have been running too recently. Remember when the EPS only had 40s yesterday and we made int into the 60s? So expect the ensembles to catch up with what some of the warmer OPs have been showing. 
 

 

it just seems highly unlikely we see highs in the 30s again after these two days.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Walked my dog.  3 layers and was pretty cozy, except for one street which is a wind tunnel.  Last gasp of cold air?

Probably.  I think we'll still have lows at or below freezing, but probably not highs in the 30s again after Monday.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

22 times:

JFK's low was 23°.

Is there a website you go to where you find these obscure stats? 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The snow is over. Another sheared out mess on the models. This has been happening all winter. 

Anyway 22 here. Going to miss these cold temps.

Say it ain’t so.  

60 yesterday felt great, ready for much more of that.