March 2025

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not surprisingly, the ensembles are backing way off on the possible snow event for next weekend. None of the teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO, no 50/50 Low) at any level are in favor of a coastal snowstorm….and 850mb temps going into it are going to be way too warm for snow. This is very likely going to be a far interior and elevated snow event. All rain, even for southern New England IMO

If we even get that.   Everything has been too amped in the longer range.  

[bluewave]

Places like Newark will probably have their first 70° of the season before St. Patrick’s Day with the long range forecast and the pattern over the last 10 years.

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	01-11 (2020)		10-31 (2019)		229
Mean	02-23		11-09		258
Maximum	03-15 (2019)		11-18 (2024)		304
2024	03-03 (2024)	70	11-18 (2024)	70	259
2023	02-15 (2023)	70	11-17 (2023)	70	274
2022	02-23 (2022)	70	11-12 (2022)	74	261
2021	03-11 (2021)	75	11-18 (2021)	72	251
2020	01-11 (2020)	70	11-11 (2020)	73	304
2019	03-15 (2019)	77	10-31 (2019)	74	229
2018	02-21 (2018)	80	11-02 (2018)	73	253
2017	02-24 (2017)	74	11-03 (2017)	76	251
2016	03-09 (2016)	82	11-03 (2016)	74	238

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.01395#:~:text=Here we show that in,knowledge of heat and work.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01395

Perhaps not Don, this is interesting (I intuitively thought this might be the case because of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle):

Fluctuations of thermodynamic observables, such as heat and work, contain relevant information on the underlying physical process. These fluctuations are however not taken into account in the traditional laws of thermodynamics. While the second law is extended to fluctuating systems by the celebrated fluctuation theorems, the first law is generally believed to hold even in the presence of fluctuations. Here we show that in the presence of quantum fluctuations, also the first law of thermodynamics may break down. This happens because quantum mechanics imposes constraints on the knowledge of heat and work. To illustrate our results, we provide a detailed case-study of work and heat fluctuations in a quantum heat engine based on a circuit QED architecture. We find probabilistic violations of the first law and show that they are closely connected to quantum signatures related to negative quasi-probabilities. Our results imply that in the presence of quantum fluctuations, the first law of thermodynamics may not be applicable to individual experimental runs.

That's a pretty bold paper. Right now, it's a pre-print. Peer-review hasn't been completed. If its conclusions hold up, that would a fairly big development.

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's a pretty bold paper. Right now, it's a pre-print. Peer-review hasn't been completed. If its conclusions hold up, that would a fairly big development.

It would connect well with some theories concerning the multiverse, Don.  Perhaps the real laws of thermodynamics extend over the entire multiverse rather than any one universe.  The idea of universes coming into being from quantum soup via pair production near the event horizon of a higher dimensional black hole would seem to support this idea.  Inflation seems to hinge on this multiverse concept.

 

[LibertyBell]

That giant hawk I took pictures of in my back yard might be here to stay.  He or she was here for 4 hours today and even caught something (I don't know what it was-- either a mouse or squirrel or a small bird unfortunately) and sat in various branches of the same tree for 4 hours.  I guess it's okay -- the rodent population will be kept down?

At one point the giant bird spread out their tail feathers and looked like a small peacock on display (all while sitting in the same tree).

 

[MJO812]

Models are still showing a storm around 8-10. That should be the last for winter.

[Heisy]

Models are still showing a storm around 8-10. That should be the last for winter.

Yep, euro and Ai very close, temp issues coastal plain likely, but if we can get a really intense storm at our latitude we could make it work, especially you guys. Tougher here down in Philly.

The GEFs looks like the euro Ais snow map, so most likely GFS out to lunch.

I like this as a classic March N&W paste bomb if it can come together


.

[snowman19]

Yep, euro and Ai very close, temp issues coastal plain likely, but if we can get a really intense storm at our latitude we could make it work, especially you guys. Tougher here down in Philly.

The GEFs looks like the euro Ais snow map, so most likely GFS out to lunch.

I like this as a classic March N&W paste bomb if it can come together


.

This does not look like an I-95 NYC/coastal snowstorm at all, like not even in the ballpark. The antecedent setup looks awful. Teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, +EPO, -PNA, +WPO, no 50/50 low) look awful, and it will be March. This isn’t March, 2018. Also, 850mb temps too warm going into it. This has far interior and elevated written all over it

[Feen]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This does not look like an I-95 NYC/coastal snowstorm at all, like not even in the ballpark. The antecedent setup looks awful. Teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, +EPO, -PNA, +WPO, no 50/50 low) look awful, and it will be March. This isn’t March, 2018. Also, 850mb temps too warm going into it. This has far interior and elevated written all over it
 

we just need a strong storm 990 or lower