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March 2025


snowman19
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From this afternoons SPC update:

  ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast...
   Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic
   states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front.  Appreciable
   heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through
   the upper 70s deg F.  Despite some mixing of boundary-layer
   moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms
   developing this afternoon.  Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and
   moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered
   damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph).
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New York City is finishing March with a mean temperature of 46.9° (4.1° above normal). That makes March 2025 the 12th warmest March on record.

A cold front will move slowly across the region tonight into tomorrow. It could be accompanied by strong thunderstorms, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible.

In its wake, it will turn much cooler for tomorrow and Wednesday. It will again become unseasonably warm on Thursday. A cooler period will likely develop during the weekend.

An AI random forest model currently suggests that April could wind up near or even somewhat below normal in New York City. A random forest model is a machine learning algorithm that combines the output of multiple decision trees to handle non-linear relationships to reach a single result.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +0.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.174 today.

 

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