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March 2025


snowman19
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The temperature surged into the 80s in parts of the region today. New York City saw its first 80° or above March temperature since March 26, 2021 when the thermometer peaked at 82°. March 29th, which accounts for 5 of New York City's 17 80° or above March temperatures, is the most common date for such temperatures in March.

High temperatures included:

Islip: 82° (old record: 81°, 1998) ***Tied March monthly record***
New York City-Central Park: 81°
New York city-JFK Airport: 81°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 82°
Newark: 85°
White Plains: 80°

So far, the high temperature at Burlington is 31°. If Burlington's high temperature finishes at 32° or below, today would be the first time on record that Burlington had a high of 32° or below when New York City had a high of 80° or above. Currently, the coldest high at Burlington when New York City reached 80° or above is 33°. That occurred on April 7, 1942 when New York City had a maximum temperature of 82°.

Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler with highs in the middle to perhaps upper 50s in New York City, but Monday could be another unseasonably warm day with highs in the middle and upper 60s.

The temperature roller coaster will again dip for Tuesday and Wednesday before unseasonable warmth returns on Thursday.

An AI random forest model currently suggests that April could wind up near or even somewhat below normal in New York City. A random forest model is a machine learning algorithm that combines the output of multiple decision trees to handle non-linear relationships to reach a single result.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +16.94 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.694 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.2° (4.4° above normal). That would tie March 2000 as the 10th warmest March on record.

 

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