March 2025

[Picard]

Someone might end up quite disappointed tomorrow, even if that front sets up 20-30 miles different from what's forecast, that's going to be a HUGE difference in temps.

[steve392]

  On 3/28/2025 at 6:21 PM, Picard said:

Someone might end up quite disappointed tomorrow, even if that front sets up 20-30 miles different from what's forecast, that's going to be a HUGE difference in temps.

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Hoping to stalls away from my area.  The ac in my truck crapped out and needs work.  

[MorristownWx]

Going to be amazing tomorrow region wide - so glad winter is over 

[Feen]

  On 3/28/2025 at 9:04 PM, MorristownWx said:

Going to be amazing tomorrow region wide - so glad winter is over 

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Going to Atlantic city for a blackjack tournament tomorrow, Hopefully I don't encounter any rain. I don't like driving in the rain, snow I don't mind cause I get excited and am very careful!

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will see the warmest readings so far this spring in and around the New York City area. Highs could rise well into the 70s in the New York City area. Parts of New Jersey could see the mercury reach or exceed 80°. Baltimore and Washington, DC will likely see temperatures peak in the middle 80s.

Sunday will be cooler with highs in the upper 50s, but Monday could be another unseasonably warm day with highs in the middle and upper 60s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +13.64 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.637 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.1° (4.3° above normal). That would rank as the 11th warmest March on record.

 

[qg_omega]

  On 3/28/2025 at 9:35 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will see the warmest readings so far this spring in and around the New York City area. Highs could rise well into the 70s in the New York City area. Parts of New Jersey could see the mercury reach or exceed 80°. Baltimore and Washington, DC will likely see temperatures peak in the middle 80s.

Sunday will be cooler with highs in the upper 50s, but Monday could be another unseasonably warm day with highs in the middle and upper 60s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +13.64 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.637 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.1° (4.3° above normal). That would rank as the 11th warmest March on record.

 

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Not seeing upper 50s on Sunday, looks like maybe 50 but likely 40s all day

[steve392]

  On 3/28/2025 at 9:35 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will see the warmest readings so far this spring in and around the New York City area. Highs could rise well into the 70s in the New York City area. Parts of New Jersey could see the mercury reach or exceed 80°. Baltimore and Washington, DC will likely see temperatures peak in the middle 80s.

Sunday will be cooler with highs in the upper 50s, but Monday could be another unseasonably warm day with highs in the middle and upper 60s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +13.64 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.637 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.1° (4.3° above normal). That would rank as the 11th warmest March on record.

 

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I can deal with this since i'll be indoors all day.  Hopefully it will remain seasonal for the next few weeks.

[uofmiami]

  On 3/28/2025 at 9:45 PM, qg_omega said:

Not seeing upper 50s on Sunday, looks like maybe 50 but likely 40s all day

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Midnight temps will be the high for the day (Sunday) potentially, especially along the coast.

[donsutherland1]

  On 3/28/2025 at 9:45 PM, qg_omega said:

Not seeing upper 50s on Sunday, looks like maybe 50 but likely 40s all day

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I'm talking about NYC. North of the City it will be noticeably cooler e.g., low 50s in White Plains.

[SACRUS]

Showers in route

[qg_omega]

  On 3/28/2025 at 9:56 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I'm talking about NYC. North of the City it will be noticeably cooler e.g., low 50s in White Plains.

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3k NAM is very cold Sunday

[donsutherland1]

  On 3/28/2025 at 10:09 PM, qg_omega said:

3k NAM is very cold Sunday

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It may be overdone. I believe the 12z GFS was overdone on the warm side for Sunday. We'll see where things have converged tomorrow.

[winterwarlock]

Location location location

[LAVistaNY]

Visiting my son in the Princeton area on Saturday- with 77° forecasted. Diving to my daughters in Maine on Sunday and a forecast 7” of snow and ice!

[nycwinter]

staying home tomorrow but sunday looks to be a coat and hoodie day..

[BxEngine]

What a short term fail by the hrrr. Raining here. 

[IrishRob17]

  On 3/28/2025 at 11:42 PM, BxEngine said:

What a short term fail by the hrrr. Raining here. 

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Hoping it's a soaking, just saw that wildfire near Greenwood Lake along the Appalachian Trail...again. 

[BxEngine]

  On 3/28/2025 at 11:44 PM, IrishRob17 said:

Hoping it's a soaking, just saw that wildfire near Greenwood Lake along the Appalachian Trail...again. 

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Yeah was just talking to a friend, theyve been up there all day. This should be enough to at least let them wrap up for the night.

[TheClimateChanger]

  On 3/28/2025 at 9:35 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will see the warmest readings so far this spring in and around the New York City area. Highs could rise well into the 70s in the New York City area. Parts of New Jersey could see the mercury reach or exceed 80°. Baltimore and Washington, DC will likely see temperatures peak in the middle 80s.

Sunday will be cooler with highs in the upper 50s, but Monday could be another unseasonably warm day with highs in the middle and upper 60s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +13.64 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.637 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.1° (4.3° above normal). That would rank as the 11th warmest March on record.

 

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Looking good Don. Definitely some impressive heat in the central US with several locations nearing statewide records for the month of March. LaCrosse, Wisconsin topped out at 86F, setting a new monthly record. It is already the second monthly record high at that location just this year!

 

[jm1220]

NAM quicker with the backdoor again. It's through the twin forks by 15z, ISP at 18z and in the city by 21z. It'll be a brief window of warmth in the afternoon before the gunk crashes in mid-afternoon. Looks like it'll be windy too, maybe 30+ gusts. What an effing tease. 

[bluewave]

Low 80s making it to Long Island with the well mixed deep westerly flow and very dry conditions.

 

[Sundog]

  On 3/29/2025 at 2:55 AM, jm1220 said:

NAM quicker with the backdoor again. It's through the twin forks by 15z, ISP at 18z and in the city by 21z. It'll be a brief window of warmth in the afternoon before the gunk crashes in mid-afternoon. Looks like it'll be windy too, maybe 30+ gusts. What an effing tease. 

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6z 3K NAM very strong with the cold push:

 

 

[qg_omega]

  On 3/29/2025 at 11:04 AM, bluewave said:

Low 80s making it to Long Island with the well mixed deep westerly flow and very dry conditions.

 

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Very briefly 

[weathermedic]

From OKX AFD

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Most of the showers with the passing warm front have lifted out
of the area. Unseasonable warmth expected for most of the area
today expect perhaps the forks of Long Island and far SE CT.
Followed lead of earlier HRRR guidance, with deep mixing to
700-750 mb and W-WSW flow sustained up to 20 mph and gusting up
to 30 mph promoting temps rising to the lower 80s from NE NJ
and NYC and western Long Island, and rising well into the 70s
across the rest of the CWA except perhaps SE CT and parts of
the forks of Long Island, before a strong back door cold front
sweeps across from the east late this afternoon into early this
evening. Latest HRRR guidance is slower with this frontal
passage and so is even warmer, with 80 degree readings up into
the Hudson Valley and 70s across nearly the entire rest of the
area except for coastal SE CT and the far ern forks of Long
Island.

Temps should drop suddenly after fropa on a gusty E flow late
today into this evening. Temps will fall to the 40s across SE
CT and ern Long Island and the 50s across SW CT and western Long
Island by sunset, and into the 50s across the NYC metro area
during the evening hours. Low temps will range from the upper
30s across ern sections to the mid 40s across NYC and NE NJ.

Per CAM`s the front may spark a few showers and possibly a tstm
mainly E of NYC via elevated instability after the front moves
through, then some additional elevated shower/tstm activity
should drift in from the west tonight. Low clouds also expected
due to the sharpness of the frontal inversion, also some patchy
fog in spots E-NE of NYC.

[SnoSki14]

Nice whiplash temp rise and drop today. Could go from mid-upper 70s to 40s in like 2 hrs between 7-9PM. 

Curious to see how high we'll max out too. Maybe 85F. Dry air and clear skies will really help

[Sundog]

  On 3/29/2025 at 12:32 PM, weathermedic said:

From OKX AFD

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Most of the showers with the passing warm front have lifted out
of the area. Unseasonable warmth expected for most of the area
today expect perhaps the forks of Long Island and far SE CT.
Followed lead of earlier HRRR guidance, with deep mixing to
700-750 mb and W-WSW flow sustained up to 20 mph and gusting up
to 30 mph promoting temps rising to the lower 80s from NE NJ
and NYC and western Long Island, and rising well into the 70s
across the rest of the CWA except perhaps SE CT and parts of
the forks of Long Island, before a strong back door cold front
sweeps across from the east late this afternoon into early this
evening. Latest HRRR guidance is slower with this frontal
passage and so is even warmer, with 80 degree readings up into
the Hudson Valley and 70s across nearly the entire rest of the
area except for coastal SE CT and the far ern forks of Long
Island.

Temps should drop suddenly after fropa on a gusty E flow late
today into this evening. Temps will fall to the 40s across SE
CT and ern Long Island and the 50s across SW CT and western Long
Island by sunset, and into the 50s across the NYC metro area
during the evening hours. Low temps will range from the upper
30s across ern sections to the mid 40s across NYC and NE NJ.

Per CAM`s the front may spark a few showers and possibly a tstm
mainly E of NYC via elevated instability after the front moves
through, then some additional elevated shower/tstm activity
should drift in from the west tonight. Low clouds also expected
due to the sharpness of the frontal inversion, also some patchy
fog in spots E-NE of NYC.

 

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Weird that they would reference the HRRR when the model runs every hour and talking about what was close to the end of its run when this discussion was posted. 

The latest HRRR run is the fastest yet with the BDCF and has LGA in the low 50s by 7PM. 

[bluewave]

  On 3/29/2025 at 12:29 PM, qg_omega said:

Very briefly 

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Long Island especially further west will have several hours in the warm sector before the backdoor arrives later. 

[forkyfork]

who expects sustained 80s in march lol

[snowman19]

  On 3/29/2025 at 1:01 PM, forkyfork said:

who expects sustained 80s in march lol

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The meltdowns some are having over one day of 80+ is really, really weird to say the least. Like doing all they can to “prove” and wishcast it not to happen, posting any outlier model run that doesn’t show it happening over and over for the last several days. I don’t get it. Just bizarre 

[Sundog]

  On 3/29/2025 at 1:35 PM, snowman19 said:

The meltdowns some are having over one day of 80+ is really, really weird to say the least. Like doing all they can to “prove” and wishcast it not to happen, posting any outlier model run that doesn’t show it happening over and over for the last several days. I don’t get it. Just bizarre 

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Who's having a meltdown bro?