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March 2025


snowman19
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51 / 29 0.40 in the bucket.  Mid / upper 50s today.   Looks like a back and forth pattern that can get really warm / then chilly before more sustained warmth towards the second week of next month.  Saturday front positioning the difference between lo 50s or 70s.  Trough deepend into the GL/ NE in the day 10 period before warmth builds in.

 

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26 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I will disagree with the last part, even 50 degrees with Sun is VERY comfortable to do anything outdoors this time of year save water based activities. 

I guess I'm thinking of more of Monday-Friday when work is done, it is 5:30 and sunny, but by that time the sun doesn't feel nice anymore and temps already have dropped a bit.  The 8 weekend days we can enjoy, but need to luck out and have sunny days.  Plus the ground is muddy usually, so that limits things.

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2 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Too early for stronger Bermuda High, Canadian will win out IMO. Probably around 55 for Central Park on Saturday. 

Throw in the cold pool off New England and it’s a lock the back door is stronger then expected. I would much prefer the warmth but reality is reality.  

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

You know that March has been warming very quickly in the 2020s when +7° on the highs isn’t considered warm any more.;)

IMG_3314.thumb.jpeg.f941a3f61cbbe3c8348daeebba2a6d51.jpeg

 

 

The first half of March was beautiful, but the first half of March is also winter, not spring. We are only 5 days into spring and it has not been above average here with the exception of one day.

I am mostly referring to (and maybe it's more perception than reality) the fact that we seem to have been having such mild winters only to have spring show up and all of a sudden we lose the mild pattern.

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1 minute ago, golfer67 said:

The first half of March was beautiful, but the first half of March is also winter, not spring. We are only 5 days into spring and it has not been above average here with the exception of one day.

I am mostly referring to (and maybe it's more perception than reality) the fact that we seem to have been having such mild winters only to have spring show up and all of a sudden we lose the mild pattern.

Last year featured a torch 1st half of the month then it got colder....terrible.  

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24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And when it shows a phantom early April blizzard within the next few days, the same usual suspects on here and on twitter will fall for it again “It happened in 1997!!!!!!” :clown:

I don't think a single person "falls" for anything a model shows more than a couple days out. Even metfan. It might show something we wish to have verify but that doesn't mean we believe it will. 

For example I don't think I'll get snow until I'm within 24 hours of the event and/or there's a giant slug of precip on radar. 

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47 minutes ago, golfer67 said:

The first half of March was beautiful, but the first half of March is also winter, not spring. We are only 5 days into spring and it has not been above average here with the exception of one day.

I am mostly referring to (and maybe it's more perception than reality) the fact that we seem to have been having such mild winters only to have spring show up and all of a sudden we lose the mild pattern.

We mostly use the meteorological seasons like MAM for spring. Back during the 2010s March was often like a winter month with cold and snow. But since 2020 March has been a spring month with well above average temperatures and very little snowfall.

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 46.2

46.2

2025 45.5 45.5
2024 48.1 48.1
2023 44.6 44.6
2022 45.3 45.3
2021 45.8 45.8
2020 48.0 48.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.1 0.1
2025 0.0 0.0
2024 T T
2023 0.1 0.1
2022 0.4 0.4
2021 T T
2020 T T

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 42.7 42.7
2019 41.7 41.7
2018 40.1 40.1
2017 39.2 39.2
2016 48.9 48.9
2015 38.1 38.1
2014 37.7 37.7
2013 40.1 40.1
2012 50.9 50.9
2011 42.3 42.3
2010 48.2 48.2


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 6.0 6.0
2019 10.4 10.4
2018 11.6 11.6
2017 9.7 9.7
2016 0.9 0.9
2015 18.6 18.6
2014 0.1 0.1
2013 7.3 7.3
2012 0.0 0.0
2011 1.0 1.0
2010 T T
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2 hours ago, Sundog said:

I don't think a single person "falls" for anything a model shows more than a couple days out. Even metfan. It might show something we wish to have verify but that doesn't mean we believe it will. 

For example I don't think I'll get snow until I'm within 24 hours of the event and/or there's a giant slug of precip on radar. 

While I did laugh at Forkys post above, I agree with you. Some on here, for whatever reason, think that if one discusses/posts what a model is showing that the poster is la, la, locking that up but most of us know better than that. Others, not so much perhaps.

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Where 2025 stands against the heavy hitters ... all years currently ahead of 2025 for one or both 70+ and 80+ (NYC) as max so far is only 66F. Counting maxima of 67 to 69 as being ahead also, 2025 is right now tied with five other years for 90th place out of 157. 

Ranked by frequency of 80+, and to break ties, frequency of 70+ (1998 oddly had only 80+ and no 70-79 max) Ties within 70+ are broken by max and if that doesn't break tie, listed in earliest to latest chronological order.

The frequency of 70+ includes 80+ (so for example 1945 had 4 in 70s and 3 in 80s) ...

 

Rank _MARCH of YEAR ______ 70+ ___ 80+ ___ max ____ rank if 70+ determines

_01 __ 1998 ____________________5 _____ 5 _____ 86 ______4

_02 __ 1945 ____________________7 _____ 3 _____ 86 ______2

_03 __ 1990 ___________________ 4 _____ 2 _____ 85 ______7

_04 __ 1921 ____________________4 _____ 2 _____ 84 _____ 8

_05 __ 1989 ____________________4 _____ 1 _____ 82 _____ 9

_06 __ 1985 ____________________3 _____ 1 _____ 82 ______12

_07 __ 2021 ____________________2 _____ 1 _____ 82 _____ 23

_08 __ 1977 ____________________4 _____ 1 _____ 81 ______ 10

_09 __ 2012 ____________________8 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 1

_10 __ 1946 ____________________ 6 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 3

_11 ___2016 ____________________ 5 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 5

_12 __ 1986 ____________________ 5 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 6

_13 __ 1987 ____________________ 4 _____ 0 _____ 76 ______ 11

_14 __ 1962 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 13

_15 ___1910 ____________________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 14

t16 __ 1913,38,2020 ___________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 77 ______t15

_19 __ 1979 ____________________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 76 _____ 18

_20 ___1949 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 75 _____ 19

t21 __ 1948, 2022 _____________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 74 _____ t20

_23 __ 1905 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 73 _____ 22

_24 __ 1963 ____________________2 _____ 0 _____ 79 _____ all same rank from this point down

_25 __ 2007 ___________________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 78

t26 __ 1929,81,91 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 77

t29 __ 1922,88 _________________2 _____ 0 _____ 76

t31 __ 1964, 2019 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 75

t33 __ 1907,99, 2006,10,24 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 74

t38 __ 1939,61,72 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 73

t41 __ 1976,95 __________________2 _____ 0 _____ 72

_43 ___1920 ____________________2 _____ 0 _____ 71

t44 ___1935, 2011 ______________ 1 _____ 0 _____ 77

t46 __ 1918,23,68 ______________ 1 _____ 0 _____ 76

_49 __ 1914 _____________________1 _____ 0 _____ 73

t50 __ 1880, 1908,43,67, 2002 _ 1 _____ 0 _____ 72

t55 __ 1890, 1925,34,55,59,94,2000 _1 _____ 0 _____ 71

t62 __ 1903,36,60,69,74,2004,09,17 _ 1 _____ 0 _____ 70

t70 __ 1878,79,97, 1919,27,28

_______1942,57,71, 2003 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 69

t80 __ 1912,54,83,93,97 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 68

t85 __ 1894, 1902,26,50,53,66 __ 0 _____ 0 _____ 67

t90 __ 1876,1924,26,73,2014,25 _ 0 _____ 0 _____ 66

 

 

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https://www.youtube.com/@WEATHERLEGENDS-METRONYCREGION

Great link.  I think they will be doing a video once a week.

Was a Weather Watcher for Bill back in the day when I was a young teenager in Bergen County, NJ.  What a great guy and taught me so much.

Still love his low key, measured and no hype style.  Just a great guy and not full of himself.  Was very welcoming and supportive. 

Funny story is I went boating and flying with him and got seasick (heaving over the side of the boat) and airsick (just queasy).  Flew from KTEB to KSWF for lunch (ginger ale for me).  Thankfully the trip back was less bumpy although I still could not look out the window without getting a little green.

I hope when the weather gets interesting again they will do some videos about any potential upcoming bigger events.

 

 

 

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR:  79 (1963)
NYC: 79 (1963)
LGA: 77 (1963)
JFK: 68 (2016)

 

Lows:

EWR: 18 !956)
NYC: 13 (1878)
LGA: 18 (1940)
JFK: 23 (2014)

Historical:

 

1843 - A second great snowstorm hit the northeastern U.S. The storm produced snow from Maine all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Natchez MS received three inches of snow, and up to 15 inches buried eastern Tennessee. Coastal Maine received 204 inches of snow that winter. (David Ludlum)

1901: More than 20 people were killed by an estimated F3 tornado that moved across parts of Birmingham, Alabama. The twister cut a 15-mile path from the south side of the city to Avondale and Irondale.

1914 - Society Hill, SC, was buried under 18 inches of snow, establishing a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1934 - A spring storm produced 21 inches of snow at Amarillo TX in 24 hours. However, much of the snow melted as it fell, and as a result, the snow cover was never any deeper than 4.5 inches. (David Ludlum)

1935: Suffocating dust storms frequently occurred in southeast Colorado between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground. Schools were closed, and tenants deserted many rural homes. 

1948 - For the second time in less than a week airplanes were destroyed by a tornado at Tinker AFB in Oklahoma City OK. A March 20th tornado destroyed fifty planes at Tinker AFB causing more than ten million dollars damage, and the March 25th tornado destroyed another thirty-five planes causing six million dollars damage. The first tornado struck without warning, and caused more damage than any previous tornado in the state of Oklahoma. The second tornado was predicted by Fawbush and Miller of the United States Air Force, and their accurate tornado forecast ushered in the modern era of severe weather forecasting. (The Weather Channel) (Storm Data) (The National Severe Storms Forecast Center)

1975 - The town of Sandberg reported a wind gust to 101 mph, a record for the state of California. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Heavy rain left rivers and streams swollen in Kansas and Nebraska, causing considerable crop damage due to flooding of agricultural areas. The Saline River near Wilson Reservoir in central Kansas reached its highest level since 1951. March rainfall at Grand Island NE exceeded their previous record of 5.57 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - An early season heat wave prevailed in the southwestern U.S. The high of 93 degrees at Tucson, AZ, was a new record for March. Windy conditions prevailed across the central and eastern U.S. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Minneapolis MN, and reached 120 mph atop Rendezvous Peak WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A Pacific storm brought wet weather to much of the western third of the country, with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. La Porte CA was drenched with 3.56 inches of rain in 24 hours. Up to 24 inches of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada Range. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Temperatures dipped below zero in the Northern Rocky Mountain Region. Hardin MT was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 10 degrees below zero. Freezing drizzle was reported in the Southern Plains Region, with afternoon highs only in the 30s from the Southern High Plains to Missouri and Arkansas. (The National Weather Summary)

1992: Hailstones up to four inches in diameter resulted in more than $60 million in damage in Orlando, Florida. This storm is still the costliest Florida hailstorm on record.

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It will turn cooler for tomorrow and Thursday. Milder air will then return for the remainder of March. Saturday could see the warmest readings so far this spring in and around the New York City area. Highs could rise well into the 60s with 70s likely in adjancent New Jersey. The closing two days of March could see the temperature top out in the lower 60s in New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +10.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.129 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (3.5° above normal).

 

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Don’t worry, the cold pool will send us the back door. 
Even if it doesn’t anywhere near the south shore will be significantly colder with water temps still around 40.

No one needs 80 in March. 60 degrees is already a bonus.

There will be 5 months of 80+ weather, I think that's more than enough lol 

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