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March 2025


snowman19
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Rain fell across the region and milder air pushed back into the region. New York City picked up 0.48" of rain.

The variable pattern of alternating short cool and mild periods will likely continue through at least next weekend. The guidance is suggesting that one or two days could see readings reach the 60s in the New York City area just before the end of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +5.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.553 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (3.4° above normal).

 

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Did better today on rainfall than I was expecting.  Picked up .21" between 8am and 4pm with periods of light rain.  Event total = .25".

Was cold and raw with temperatures hovering near 40 all day until about 5:30 with temperatures popped into the mid and upper 40's briefly as the sun poked through the clouds.

Interesting solutions for temperatures this upcoming weekend.  Leaning towards the cooler solutions for CNJ on north and east.

 

 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

And the GFS is probably dead wrong again, as usual

These back door setups usually end up with the front making it further SW than hoped/modeled much of the time at this range. The wedge is not to be underestimated. I’d love the Euro to be right but have seen the inevitable creep SW too often. 

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How far north the warm front gets on Saturday will be determined by which of the two high pressure systems are stronger. If the Bermuda high is stronger like in recent runs, then the warm front will come further north. But if the Canadian high is stronger than there will be more if a struggle to come north. Since the temperature gradient is so steep, there could be a 30°+ temperature shift over a few miles. So we are getting the 0z to 12z windshield wiper effect until we get close enough for one solution to win out.

New run stronger Bermuda high and warm front further north

IMG_3312.thumb.png.daee56e2adaba3ac2125a2c424bac66f.png
 

Old run Canadian high stronger so warm front further south

IMG_3311.png

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

How far north the warm front gets on Saturday will be determined by which of the two high pressure systems are stronger. If the Bermuda high is stronger like in recent runs, then the warm front will come further north. But if the Canadian high is stronger than there will be more if a struggle to come north. Since the temperature gradient is so steep, there could be a 30°+ temperature shift over a few miles. So we are getting the 0z to 12z windshield wiper effect until we get close enough for one solution to win out.

New run stronger Bermuda high and warm front further north

IMG_3312.thumb.png.daee56e2adaba3ac2125a2c424bac66f.png
 

Old run Canadian high stronger so warm front further south

IMG_3311.png

Too early for stronger Bermuda High, Canadian will win out IMO. Probably around 55 for Central Park on Saturday. 

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The colder runs from the GFS yesterday were also blowing up a low off the coast of Nova Scotia down to the 970s, helping push down the colder air.

With the most recent run at 6z, the low never gets going until it's 500 miles SE of Greenland, so no effects for us. 

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Just now, FPizz said:

It is just the time of year that sucks and most want to FF until sustained 65-70+.  Too warm to snow 99% of the time and still too cool to fully enjoy outdoors.  

I will disagree with the last part, even 50 degrees with Sun is VERY comfortable to do anything outdoors this time of year save water based activities. 

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