Sundog Posted Tuesday at 12:17 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:17 AM 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is cool and rainy Mid 30s on Saturday, now that's downright cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Tuesday at 12:18 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:18 AM Rain fell across the region and milder air pushed back into the region. New York City picked up 0.48" of rain. The variable pattern of alternating short cool and mild periods will likely continue through at least next weekend. The guidance is suggesting that one or two days could see readings reach the 60s in the New York City area just before the end of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. The SOI was +5.26 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.553 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (3.4° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Tuesday at 12:37 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:37 AM Did better today on rainfall than I was expecting. Picked up .21" between 8am and 4pm with periods of light rain. Event total = .25". Was cold and raw with temperatures hovering near 40 all day until about 5:30 with temperatures popped into the mid and upper 40's briefly as the sun poked through the clouds. Interesting solutions for temperatures this upcoming weekend. Leaning towards the cooler solutions for CNJ on north and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted Tuesday at 01:00 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:00 AM 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: imagine if it was all snow lol, we'd jackpot Yeah. This is definitely the snow hole of Long Island. Getting progressively worse as you head south, with Long Beach being the least snowy location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Tuesday at 09:26 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:26 AM 9 hours ago, Sundog said: Mid 30s on Saturday, now that's downright cold Thought 80s? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Tuesday at 09:48 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:48 AM 20 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Thought 80s? 0z GFS still very chilly: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Tuesday at 09:50 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:50 AM 0z UKMET is a region wide torch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Tuesday at 09:51 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:51 AM 0z EURO even hotter! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Tuesday at 09:57 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 09:57 AM 8 minutes ago, Sundog said: 0z GFS still very chilly: And the GFS is probably dead wrong again, as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Tuesday at 10:10 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:10 AM 18 minutes ago, Sundog said: 0z EURO even hotter! 77 or 34 got it thx 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted Tuesday at 10:47 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:47 AM Interesting battle; lean Euro but perhaps put a cap on temps 65-70 max. Would be shockingly cold if the GFS prevails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 11:05 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:05 AM 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: And the GFS is probably dead wrong again, as usual These back door setups usually end up with the front making it further SW than hoped/modeled much of the time at this range. The wedge is not to be underestimated. I’d love the Euro to be right but have seen the inevitable creep SW too often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Tuesday at 11:08 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:08 AM 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: And the GFS is probably dead wrong again, as usual Yeah, the GFS has been in last place among the majors with the strong cold bias and multiple long range snowstorms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted Tuesday at 11:22 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:22 AM The euro either has the same cold bias on some runs or…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Tuesday at 11:34 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:34 AM The Euro AI was much cooler than the OP, but still warm for NJ: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Tuesday at 11:36 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:36 AM By evening we're all back in the 40s, so it's a brief spike in temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted Tuesday at 11:46 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:46 AM .77 inch of rain yesterday Quote ay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 12:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:00 PM 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: 77 or 34 got it thx Middle ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Tuesday at 12:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:05 PM How far north the warm front gets on Saturday will be determined by which of the two high pressure systems are stronger. If the Bermuda high is stronger like in recent runs, then the warm front will come further north. But if the Canadian high is stronger than there will be more if a struggle to come north. Since the temperature gradient is so steep, there could be a 30°+ temperature shift over a few miles. So we are getting the 0z to 12z windshield wiper effect until we get close enough for one solution to win out. New run stronger Bermuda high and warm front further north Old run Canadian high stronger so warm front further south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted Tuesday at 12:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:28 PM 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: How far north the warm front gets on Saturday will be determined by which of the two high pressure systems are stronger. If the Bermuda high is stronger like in recent runs, then the warm front will come further north. But if the Canadian high is stronger than there will be more if a struggle to come north. Since the temperature gradient is so steep, there could be a 30°+ temperature shift over a few miles. So we are getting the 0z to 12z windshield wiper effect until we get close enough for one solution to win out. New run stronger Bermuda high and warm front further north Old run Canadian high stronger so warm front further south Too early for stronger Bermuda High, Canadian will win out IMO. Probably around 55 for Central Park on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted Tuesday at 12:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:59 PM 30 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Too early for stronger Bermuda High, Canadian will win out IMO. Probably around 55 for Central Park on Saturday. 55 is still hoodie and winter coat weather for me 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer67 Posted Tuesday at 01:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:23 PM man, springs have become such garbage around here (at least the first half) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Tuesday at 01:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:41 PM 18 minutes ago, golfer67 said: man, springs have become such garbage around here (at least the first half) Yes back door cold fronts are a new phenomenon 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Tuesday at 01:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:42 PM 16 minutes ago, golfer67 said: man, springs have become such garbage around here (at least the first half) You know that March has been warming very quickly in the 2020s when +7° on the highs isn’t considered warm any more. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Tuesday at 01:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:46 PM The colder runs from the GFS yesterday were also blowing up a low off the coast of Nova Scotia down to the 970s, helping push down the colder air. With the most recent run at 6z, the low never gets going until it's 500 miles SE of Greenland, so no effects for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Tuesday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:51 PM 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: You know that March has been warming very quickly in the 2020s when +7° on the highs isn’t considered warm any more. Seriously what more do people want. This March has been very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted Tuesday at 01:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:54 PM 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Seriously what more do people want. This March has been very warm. It is just the time of year that sucks and most want to FF until sustained 65-70+. Too warm to snow 99% of the time and still too cool to fully enjoy outdoors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Tuesday at 01:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:54 PM 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Seriously what more do people want. This March has been very warm. They want July in March because the masses have already become accustomed to Virginia March averages. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Tuesday at 01:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:55 PM Just now, Sundog said: They want July in March because the masses have already become accustomed to Virginia March averages. Well if it's ever July in March then we're all screwed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Tuesday at 01:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:55 PM Just now, FPizz said: It is just the time of year that sucks and most want to FF until sustained 65-70+. Too warm to snow 99% of the time and still too cool to fully enjoy outdoors. I will disagree with the last part, even 50 degrees with Sun is VERY comfortable to do anything outdoors this time of year save water based activities. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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