March 2025

[Picard]

Actually a nice day today with not too much breeze.  High 47.  I was expecting clouds this afternoon, but the sun stayed out, enough for a short hike that wasn't too cold.

[donsutherland1]

On 3/16/2025 at 12:57 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The week ahead:

Final numbers:

[MJO812]

39 and windy

Feels colder

[steve392]

Woke up and left for work with a decent rain coming down and fizzled out by the time i got to Paramus, NJ.  Definitely helped get my pre-emergent into the yard.  

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 0z Euro mad some small progress for Saturday with the warm front getting a little further north than earlier runs. It now has the 80° warmth into Western NJ. Then the front sags south on Sunday before rebounding back north on Monday. So a battle between the cooler SST upwelling from strong winter westerlies east of New England and expanding drought feedback with rising sun angle across much of the CONUS. 
 

 

 

If that warm front advances through and we get westerly downsloping flow with sun on Saturday, 80 degrees in parts of the area (away from the coast) is definitely achievable 

[SACRUS]

 

39 / 38 light rain / drizzle here.  0.12 in the bucket with totals of near 0.25 rainfall.  Cooler week near to slightly below overall. Warming by Fri / Sat pending on extent of the onshore backdoor. Looks a bit back and forth temp wise bias warmer between 3/28 into next month.  Ridge into the east and into the Mid Atlanitic but northeast a bit back and forth battle zone next 7 - 14 days. 

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/NE/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 77 (1988)
NYC: 76 (1988)
LGA: 74 (2012)
JFK: 66 (1987)

 

Lows: 

EWR: 16 (1940)
NYC: 12 (1888)
LGA: 17 (1940)
JFK: 22 (2014)


Historical:

 

1912 - Residents of Kansas City began to dig out from a storm produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours. The snowfall total was nearly twice that of any other storm of modern record in Kansas City before or since that time. A record 40 inches of snow fell during the month of March that year, and the total for the winter season of 67 inches was also a record. By late February of that year Kansas City had received just six inches of snow. Olathe KS received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a single storm record for the state of Kansas. (23rd-24th) (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter-like storm in the central U.S. produced blizzard conditions from South Dakota to western Kansas. Snowfall totals ranged up to 24 inches at Neligh NE, with 19 inches at Winner SD. Winds gusting to 60 mph created twelve foot snow drifts in Nebraska stranding thousands on the highways. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Minnesota to northeastern Texas. The thunderstorms spawned ten tornadoes, including one which injured five persons near Raymondville MO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of Virginia brought heavy rain to the Middle Atlantic Coast States, and heavy snow to the Northern Appalachians. Cape Hatteras NC was soaked with 5.20 inches of rain in 24 hours, and snowfall totals in Vermont ranged up to 12 inches. Winds gusted to 52 mph at New York City. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - The storm system which produced heavy snow in the Lower Missouri Valley the previous day, spread heavy snow across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Snowfall totals of 2.2 inches at Philadelphia PA and 2.4 inches at Atlantic City NJ were records for the date. Up to six inches of snow blanketed southern Ohio. In the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, snow coated the blossoms of cherry trees which had bloomed in 80 degree weather the previous week. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

[Feen]

winter is still here and i'm assuming we'll get another freeze here in the city before the real warmth comes in! 39 and drizzle

[Brian5671]

Areas just to the NW of the city getting skunked on the rain-ending up a bit further SE that modeled last evening

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Feen said:

winter is still here and i'm assuming we'll get another freeze here in the city before the real warmth comes in! 39 and drizzle

It's still March. No clue what people are looking for .

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Areas just to the NW of the city getting skunked on the rain-ending up a bit further SE that modeled last evening

Yeah, for sure.  Only .04" here as of 8am.  Not expecting more than .10" for the rest of the day.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yeah, for sure.  Only .04" here as of 8am.  Not expecting more than .10" for the rest of the day.

we're in a rainy pattern though (not surprising for early spring) looks like many more chances for rain and both days next weekend will be rainy.

 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's still March. No clue what people are looking for .

March is almost over, this isn't the first week of the month

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, Feen said:

winter is still here and i'm assuming we'll get another freeze here in the city before the real warmth comes in! 39 and drizzle

in no way shape or form is it winter LOL 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If that warm front advances through and we get westerly downsloping flow with sun on Saturday, 80 degrees in parts of the area (away from the coast) is definitely achievable 

Probably, but it could also be raining next weekend.

I do think we'll get 70+ here by the first week of April.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 0z Euro mad some small progress for Saturday with the warm front getting a little further north than earlier runs. It now has the 80° warmth into Western NJ. Then the front sags south on Sunday before rebounding back north on Monday. So a battle between the cooler SST upwelling from strong winter westerlies east of New England and expanding drought feedback with rising sun angle across much of the CONUS. 
 

 

 

I find that expanding drought feedback very intriguing, I think that will be a BIG factor this summer.

 

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, Feen said:

winter is still here and i'm assuming we'll get another freeze here in the city before the real warmth comes in! 39 and drizzle

Winter is over 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Winter is over 

These people are so funny.  And Ant with his *it's still March* as if the weather in the last week of March is anything like the first week of March LOL

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s another world up here sometimes vs the barrier islands. Actually most of the time in spring. Often there are 20 degree differences between here and Captree. I don’t miss living through that whatsoever in Long Beach. Many absolutely raw and nasty afternoons this time of year. 

Do you remember April 2010? The earliest ever 90 degree reading in the city and close to JFK and Long Beach was in the upper 60s lol.

I think April 2002 was hot even down on the barrier islands though.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I live in Lynbrook too as you know and it the difference between home and the beach was remarkable. Even if it was only a few degrees cooler at the beach, something about the higher dews and of course the wind just makes it feel so raw.

We had this storm in February 2010 I think it was-- could have been January 2011 too, don't remember because both those winters were great.  We had 5 inches of snow in Lynbrook and Valley Stream and JM in Long Beach was going back and forth with a mix.  I remember us watching it on radar too and it clearly showed the mixing line on the barrier islands but it didn't make it up to us.

 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you remember April 2010? The earliest ever 90 degree reading in the city and close to JFK and Long Beach was in the upper 60s lol.

I think April 2002 was hot even down on the barrier islands though.

 

April 2002 had a week of 90-95 but it was later in the month

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

April 2002 had a week of 90-95 but it was later in the month

Yes strangely enough almost exactly on the same days as a nearly identical heatwave (with almost the same temperatures) happened in April 1976.  However you can't use that kind of coincidence as an analog, as those two summers were radically different.

2002 had one of my all time favorite summers. And in a developing moderate el nino no less.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 77 (1988)
NYC: 76 (1988)
LGA: 74 (2012)
JFK: 66 (1987)

 

Lows: 

EWR: 16 (1940)
NYC: 12 (1888)
LGA: 17 (1940)
JFK: 22 (2014)


Historical:

 

1912 - Residents of Kansas City began to dig out from a storm produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours. The snowfall total was nearly twice that of any other storm of modern record in Kansas City before or since that time. A record 40 inches of snow fell during the month of March that year, and the total for the winter season of 67 inches was also a record. By late February of that year Kansas City had received just six inches of snow. Olathe KS received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a single storm record for the state of Kansas. (23rd-24th) (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter-like storm in the central U.S. produced blizzard conditions from South Dakota to western Kansas. Snowfall totals ranged up to 24 inches at Neligh NE, with 19 inches at Winner SD. Winds gusting to 60 mph created twelve foot snow drifts in Nebraska stranding thousands on the highways. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Minnesota to northeastern Texas. The thunderstorms spawned ten tornadoes, including one which injured five persons near Raymondville MO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of Virginia brought heavy rain to the Middle Atlantic Coast States, and heavy snow to the Northern Appalachians. Cape Hatteras NC was soaked with 5.20 inches of rain in 24 hours, and snowfall totals in Vermont ranged up to 12 inches. Winds gusted to 52 mph at New York City. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - The storm system which produced heavy snow in the Lower Missouri Valley the previous day, spread heavy snow across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Snowfall totals of 2.2 inches at Philadelphia PA and 2.4 inches at Atlantic City NJ were records for the date. Up to six inches of snow blanketed southern Ohio. In the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, snow coated the blossoms of cherry trees which had bloomed in 80 degree weather the previous week. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

Lows: 

EWR: 16 (1940)
NYC: 12 (1888)
LGA: 17 (1940)
JFK: 22 (2014)

 

Wow 1888 was still so cold this late.

I didn't realize 2014's record at JFK was so high.

 

1912 - Residents of Kansas City began to dig out from a storm produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours. The snowfall total was nearly twice that of any other storm of modern record in Kansas City before or since that time. A record 40 inches of snow fell during the month of March that year, and the total for the winter season of 67 inches was also a record. By late February of that year Kansas City had received just six inches of snow. Olathe KS received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a single storm record for the state of Kansas. (23rd-24th) (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel)

 

What kind of crazy pattern dumped 40 inches of snow in KC in that month? NYC has NEVER had 40 inches of snow in a month!!

Olathe had 37 inches of snow in a single storm? OMG-- nothing like that has EVER happened here and they are in the middle of the country, not near any large body of water at all!  HOW?!

 

[Sundog]

12z ICON actually got cooler compared to 0z for Saturday's highs:

Though it's the ICON lol

[Sundog]

Looks like the 12z GFS agrees with the ICON, it's even cooler than its 6z run and also cooler than the ICON depiction. 

Does the Euro have a warm bias when it comes to warm surges in the east in spring?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We had this storm in February 2010 I think it was-- could have been January 2011 too, don't remember because both those winters were great.  We had 5 inches of snow in Lynbrook and Valley Stream and JM in Long Beach was going back and forth with a mix.  I remember us watching it on radar too and it clearly showed the mixing line on the barrier islands but it didn't make it up to us.

 

I’ll never forget that day. I was living in Long Beach and working in new Hyde park. The strangest rain snow line I have ever seen. South of sunrise nothing but white rain, north of sunrise several inches of snow, and it stayed relatively constant up to new Hyde park. Usually the rain snow line sets up along the terminal moraine (northern state)

Meanwhile steady moderate rain continues 

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’ll never forget that day. I was living in Long Beach and working in new Hyde park. The strangest rain snow line I have ever seen. South of sunrise nothing but white rain, north of sunrise several inches of snow, and it stayed relatively constant up to new Hyde park. Usually the rain snow line sets up along the terminal moraine (northern state)

Meanwhile steady moderate rain continues 

Which storm are you talking about?

[forkyfork]

good luck nailing down a spring front location at day 6

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

good luck nailing down a spring front location at day 6

The nam will have us 82 the night before while we end up stuck in the upper 50s

[Sundog]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

The nam will have us 82 the night before while we end up stuck in the upper 50s

If anything the NAM will have you in the 40s meanwhile you hit 70. The NAM likes to overdo BDCF strength and western progression I think.