March 2025

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is warmer overall next few weeks with a few colder days mixed in when the backdoors drop south before retreating north again. 
 

March 24-31

 

March 31 to April 7th

 

Hopefully that verifies...this week in the mid to upper 40's is going to feel awful.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hopefully that verifies...this week in the mid to upper 40's is going to feel awful.

Maritime gunk season. We can’t get sustained westerly flow this time of year for anything. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hopefully that verifies...this week in the mid to upper 40's is going to feel awful.

My guess is that most days will be over 50° next few weeks in NYC. The average high this week is 53° which rises to 57° in early April. We even made it close to 50° today behind the cold front.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Possibly in NYC.

I mean there's no reason for it to get cold since we have no more arctic shots coming.

I would have thought that CC would have ended these unusual late season cold shots, but I suppose late March is still vulnerable even though the nights are now shorter than the days.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hopefully that verifies...this week in the mid to upper 40's is going to feel awful.

The sun is so strong that as long as there's no wind, it will feel much warmer than the temperature (which is measured in the shade of course.)

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

There is zero warmth on the GFS straight through the end of the run

But there are all these forecasts that show temperatures in the 60s and even 70s starting in early April? Why are there polar opposite forecasts depending on the source?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

It feels much warmer especially  without the nasty insufferable  wind

Indeed-- I know this is obvious, but temperatures are measured in the shade.  It's much warmer in the sun, which is where we should all be.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's called spring in the northeast. If BDCF wins out it'll be even colder than that 

the funny and ironic thing is, when it comes to spring, we're in the northeast.  when it's winter, we're in the midatlantic.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Do you play https://globle-game.com/?

I've definitely learned of countries that I never knew existed

I did it the old fashioned way, my parents bought me a globe when I was 8 years old and it came with an atlas.  I learned all sorts of things from that Rand McNally Atlas and the globe (which was topographically enhanced so you could feel the mountain ranges if you slid your fingertips across it.)

Then when I was in 7th grade I got myself a star atlas and learned all the constellations.  Those are infinitely more interesting than the countries on a planetary atlas. And this book which I found engrossing-- H. A. Rey's The Stars: A New Way To See Them.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah if I had access to google earth as a kid I probably would have too! It gets a little boring staring at an actually globe.
 Even now I spend hours looking for obscure surf breaks in isolated places.  Also glacial retreat facisnates me and can be seen on GE.

Globes are fun because you're looking at the actual shape of the Earth (more or less).  On mine you could actually feel the mountain ranges and it also had the ocean currents listed as well as relief for both the mountains and ocean trenches (and measurements of the biggest ones.)

I can't tell you how many dumb kids in my class thought Greenland was bigger than South America because of the ubiquitous Mercator Projection (I liked the Lambert Equal Area Projection myself).  They also thought Maine was further north than Minnesota.  With a globe it's easy to tell neither is true and are inaccuracies created by trying to show a round Earth on a flat surface.

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean there's no reason for it to get cold since we have no more arctic shots coming.

I would have thought that CC would have ended these unusual late season cold shots, but I suppose late March is still vulnerable even though the nights are now shorter than the days.

 

There was nothing unusual about the cool down this morning since the record for the date is 13° and NYC only made it to 31°.

 

Data for March 23 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1934-03-23	25	13	T	T	T
1875-03-23	32	13	0.00	0.0	M
1888-03-23	20	14	0.00	0.0	M
1885-03-23	26	16	0.00	0.0	M
1940-03-23	28	18	T	T	0
1906-03-23	27	19	0.00	0.0	M
1874-03-23	44	19	0.00	0.0	M
1959-03-23	47	20	0.00	0.0	0
1916-03-23	36	22	T	T	2
2017-03-23	42	23	0.00	0.0	0
2015-03-23	38	23	0.00	0.0	0

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There was nothing unusual about the cool down this morning since the record for the date is 13° and NYC only made it to 31°.

 

Data for March 23 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1934-03-23	25	13	T	T	T
1875-03-23	32	13	0.00	0.0	M
1888-03-23	20	14	0.00	0.0	M
1885-03-23	26	16	0.00	0.0	M
1940-03-23	28	18	T	T	0
1906-03-23	27	19	0.00	0.0	M
1874-03-23	44	19	0.00	0.0	M
1959-03-23	47	20	0.00	0.0	0
1916-03-23	36	22	T	T	2
2017-03-23	42	23	0.00	0.0	0
2015-03-23	38	23	0.00	0.0	0

Yes but that record is from almost a century ago lol.  We can go by normal temperatures, plus how the month has been going plus it being so late in the season, after the spring equinox. It's interesting 2015 was still so cold, that feels like a different era, that entire winter was much colder than this one.

 

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The sun is so strong that as long as there's no wind, it will feel much warmer than the temperature (which is measured in the shade of course.)

definitely true-we are at a Sept 20th sun angle now

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

definitely true-we are at a Sept 20th sun angle now

Yep, I have no objection to how it feels in the afternoon, nice and mild.  It's the mornings that are cold (especially if there's wind to make it feel even worse.)

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes but that record is from almost a century ago lol.  We can go by normal temperatures, plus how the month has been going plus it being so late in the season, after the spring equinox. It's interesting 2015 was still so cold, that feels like a different era, that entire winter was much colder than this one.

 

The records at Islip only go back to the 1960s. The low of 31°  today was also well above the record low of 15° set in 2004. But when we have a month of top 10 warmth even a -3° feels relatively cold in comparison.

 

TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         47    244 PM  75    2012  50     -3       52       
  MINIMUM         31    620 AM  15    2004  34     -3       35       
  AVERAGE         39                        42     -3       44     

[Sundog]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes but that record is from almost a century ago lol.  We can go by normal temperatures, plus how the month has been going plus it being so late in the season, after the spring equinox. It's interesting 2015 was still so cold, that feels like a different era, that entire winter was much colder than this one.

 

Winter 2015 was still above to way above normal around the globe, we just happened to get the only major cold anomaly on the planet park over us for like two months.  

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Winter 2015 was still above to way above normal around the globe, we just happened to get the only major cold anomaly on the planet park over us for like two months.  

Yes it was truly amazing.  I don't think we'll see anything like that in our lifetimes again.  One of the coldest Februarys ever and colder than most Januarys we have had.

It was January 20 to March 20 cold I think without a break and a historic snowfall season to boot (even moreso for Boston and the Cape.)

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The records at Islip only go back to the 1960s. The low of 31°  today was also well above the record low of 15° set in 2004. But when we have a month of top 10 warmth even a -3° feels relatively cold in comparison.

 

TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         47    244 PM  75    2012  50     -3       52       
  MINIMUM         31    620 AM  15    2004  34     -3       35       
  AVERAGE         39                        42     -3       44     

Yes, you'd think that once it got that warm and stayed consistently warm, it wouldn't be able to get below freezing again.

on News 12 they said it was the coldest morning in 3 weeks. Most unwelcome.

[donsutherland1]

This morning, the temperature fell to 31°. If that is the last freeze, it will occur somewhat earlier than normal. The normal last freeze occurs on March 29th. Last year's last freeze occurred on March 24th. The last April freeze occurred on April 3, 2021.

Low temperatures included:

Albany: 22°
Allentown: 27°
Atlantic City: 31°
Binghamton: 19°
Boston: 29°
Bridgeport: 31°
Danbury: 29°
Hartford: 26°
Islip: 31°
New Haven: 32°
New York City-Central Park: 31°
New York City-JFK Airport: 32°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 32°
Newark: 32°
Philadelphia: 34°
Poughkeepsie: 27°
Providence: 30°
Scranton: 24°
White Plains: 28°

A period of rain is likely tomorrow as milder air pushes into the region. There is a chance that some of the distant northern and western suburbs could see some sleet or wet snow during the onset of the precipitation. A general 0.25"-0.75" is likely.

The variable pattern of alternating short cool and mild periods will likely continue through at least next weekend. The guidance is suggesting that one or two days could see readings reach the 60s in the New York City area just before the end of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around March 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +5.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.037 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal).

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, you'd think that once it got that warm and stayed consistently warm, it wouldn't be able to get below freezing again.

 

The average last freeze in NYC during the 2020s has been 3-24.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	03-01 (2020)		10-31 (2020)		233
Mean	03-24		11-19		240
Maximum	04-03 (2021)		11-30 (2024)		250
2024	03-24 (2024)	31	11-30 (2024)	30	250
2023	03-30 (2023)	31	11-25 (2023)	30	239
2022	03-30 (2022)	29	11-19 (2022)	31	233
2021	04-03 (2021)	32	11-23 (2021)	32	233
2020	03-01 (2020)	25	10-31 (2020)	32	243

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean there's no reason for it to get cold since we have no more arctic shots coming.

I would have thought that CC would have ended these unusual late season cold shots, but I suppose late March is still vulnerable even though the nights are now shorter than the days.

 

Even a 2c warming isn’t going to end cold shots. Well into April.

One thing to consider this spring is the cold pool formed from upwhelling with all the offshore flow this winter. I was just at jones beach to go for a run and with the wind out of the south it was remarkably cold. 
The cold pool to our north east will also have the ability to bring down chilly maritime air anytime we are in a cutoff pattern. Those patterns are common this time of year as the jet slows and retracts. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Even a 2c warming isn’t going to end cold shots. Well into April.

One thing to consider this spring is the cold pool formed from upwhelling with all the offshore flow this winter. I was just at jones beach to go for a run and with the wind out of the south it was remarkably cold. 
The cold pool to our north east will also have the ability to bring down chilly maritime air anytime we are in a cutoff pattern. Those patterns are common this time of year as the jet slows and retracts. 

I bet that's why we get that howling southerly wind as soon as it warms up even a little.  It actually felt warmer here because of the lack of wind and I was sitting outside in the full sun this afternoon.

I think the wind is blocked here, aside from a few hours this morning, I haven't noticed the tree branches moving.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The average last freeze in NYC during the 2020s has been 3-24.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	03-01 (2020)		10-31 (2020)		233
Mean	03-24		11-19		240
Maximum	04-03 (2021)		11-30 (2024)		250
2024	03-24 (2024)	31	11-30 (2024)	30	250
2023	03-30 (2023)	31	11-25 (2023)	30	239
2022	03-30 (2022)	29	11-19 (2022)	31	233
2021	04-03 (2021)	32	11-23 (2021)	32	233
2020	03-01 (2020)	25	10-31 (2020)	32	243

 

2020's 3-1 is more what I would expect in a warmer March like this one has been.  But 3-1 was actually our warmest day this month, we made it to 67 here.

 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

What happened  to the warmth forecasted for next weekend...went from 72 to 52 for Saturday

No matter how much these models progress, it’s going to be very hard to pin down the exact location of a backdoor cold front beyond 120 hrs. You can see the impressive temperature gradient potential for next weekend. While most of NJ has already had a 70° day this month, the last shot for NYC may come down to the wire on the 31st. 
 

[psv88]

49 today. Not bad

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I bet that's why we get that howling southerly wind as soon as it warms up even a little.  It actually felt warmer here because of the lack of wind and I was sitting outside in the full sun this afternoon.

I think the wind is blocked here, aside from a few hours this morning, I haven't noticed the tree branches moving.

 

I live in Lynbrook too as you know and it the difference between home and the beach was remarkable. Even if it was only a few degrees cooler at the beach, something about the higher dews and of course the wind just makes it feel so raw.

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I live in Lynbrook too as you know and it the difference between home and the beach was remarkable. Even if it was only a few degrees cooler at the beach, something about the higher dews and of course the wind just makes it feel so raw.

It’s another world up here sometimes vs the barrier islands. Actually most of the time in spring. Often there are 20 degree differences between here and Captree. I don’t miss living through that whatsoever in Long Beach. Many absolutely raw and nasty afternoons this time of year. 

[MJO812]

43 now

[TWCCraig]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Even a 2c warming isn’t going to end cold shots. Well into April.

One thing to consider this spring is the cold pool formed from upwhelling with all the offshore flow this winter. I was just at jones beach to go for a run and with the wind out of the south it was remarkably cold. 
The cold pool to our north east will also have the ability to bring down chilly maritime air anytime we are in a cutoff pattern. Those patterns are common this time of year as the jet slows and retracts. 

People forget it snowed in May 2020, so getting cold late into spring isn't unheard of.

Fwiw, most of the water near the coast is running slightly above normal from the Gulf of Maine down to the Delmarva. We had the same phantom "cold pool" last year to our northeast and it was gone by summer

[ag3]

Got up to 51.1 today. Not bad.