March 2025

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

When's the changeover to snow?

December

[BxEngine]

Dropped 6 degrees in the last 40 mins. Gonna be a miserable day.

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Dropped 6 degrees in the last 40 mins. Gonna be a miserable day.

Temps here are running lower than Upton's hourly forecast, so we'll see if that means anything later in the day, down to 37 now with the winds ripping after a nice .82 overnight. 2.72 for the month. 

[Sundog]

1.29 inches at LGA, more from this pop up event than from that "major" storm a few days ago. 

[snowman19]

It looks like we may finally be going into a -AMO cycle like we had in the 1980’s:

[ag3]

.94” overnight.

[jm1220]

Maybe 0.2” here. This was essentially nothing for LI. 

[Dark Star]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like we may finally be going into a -AMO cycle like we had in the 1980’s:
 

The temperature of the water off of Delaware affects the formation of a Nor'Easter?  I could see the ocean temperature perhaps affecting the intensity...

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like we may finally be going into a -AMO cycle like we had in the 1980’s:
 

I will say something different is happening this time around. Models show the cold blob fading this summer. But notice how this has been a localized event with the rest of the Atlantic staying near record warmth. Back in the 1980s the entire Atlantic ocean was much colder. The Atlantic has cooled off from the record SSTs of 2024 and is back to 2022 to 2023 levels. Notice how much colder the 1980s were in comparison. What we are seeing now may be related to the upwelling from the record westerly flow this last winter. But this is expected to relax as we head into the summer with much less westerly flow.
 

 

[MJO812]

40 now

Wearing my hoodie and gloves 

[IrishRob17]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

40 now

Wearing my hoodie and gloves 

NYC Winter?

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like we may finally be going into a -AMO cycle like we had in the 1980’s:
 

Yeah I've been yelling about this since last year.  Last year's suppression of tropical activity during the peak of the season and dryness in the second half of the year was the shot across the bow.

Expect these things going forward for the next few years:

1) drier years, a correction from the excessive rainfall of the past two decades.

2) hotter summers in terms of 90 degree days and even 100 degree days right down to the coast with more westerly winds

3) less busy tropical seasons (it does not preclude east coast hurricanes though-- see Belle 1976, Gloria 1985 and Bob 1991).

4) possibility of below zero lows becoming more common in the winter, although this depends on upstream cold and CC changes to the climate since the 1980s.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will say something different is happening this time around. Models show the cold blob fading this summer. But notice how this has been a localized event with the rest of the Atlantic staying near record warmth. Back in the 1980s the entire Atlantic ocean was much colder. The Atlantic has cooled off from the record SSTs of 2024 and is back to 2022 to 2023 levels. Notice how much colder the 1980s were in comparison. What we are seeing now may be related to the upwelling from the record westerly flow this last winter. But this is expected to relax as we head into the summer with much less westerly flow.
 

 

Yes there have been some CC changes but I'm pretty confident we'll be returning back to a drier regime for a few years (call it a correction to the excessive rainfall of the last two decades) and hotter summers with more westerly flow, not sure about the below zero lows in the winter like the 80s had.  Expect the westerly flow this summer to be more than what we've had the last few summers, more like 2010 and 2002 before that and more like what we had in the 80s and 90s.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe 0.2” here. This was essentially nothing for LI. 

I mean we had some heavy rain from about 12:30 am to about 2:30 am.  I heard it start up a bit after the St. John's game.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

NYC Winter?

[Sundog]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean we had some heavy rain from about 12:30 am to about 2:30 am.  I heard it start up a bit after the St. John's game.

There was a solid dropoff in precip amunts east of the city:

 

[SACRUS]

 

40 / 24 with 0.75 in the bucket mainly between 7:30 and 11PM last night.  Clearing and cool lows 50s / breezy.  Warmer Saturday but looks mainly cloudy.  Next shot at rain Monday 0.25 - 0.50 / then Wed 0.25.  Trough in the east through the 28th then next weekend looks a bit warmer as torugh slowly lifts out the close of the month and start of next.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 76 (1938)
NYC: 84 (1921)
LGA: 70 (1948)
JFK: 67 (2020)

Lows:

EWR: 16 (1986)
NYC: 10 (1885)
LGA: 18 (1986)
JFK: 17 (1986)

Historical:

 

1801: The Jefferson Flood hit the Connecticut Valley. The flooding was the greatest since 1692. The Federalists named the flood for the new President, who they blamed for the disaster.

1801: The Jefferson Flood hit the Connecticut Valley. The flooding was the greatest since 1692. The Federalists named the flood for the new President, who they blamed for the disaster.

1876: More than 40 inches of snow stopped traffic in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Trains were delayed, and mail carriers resorted to snowshoes. 

1932 - A tornado swarm occurred in the Deep South. Between late afternoon and early the next morning severe thunderstorms spawned 31 tornadoes in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee. The tornadoes killed 334 persons and injured 1784 others. Northern Alabama was hardest hit. Tornadoes in Alabama killed 286 persons and caused five million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1952 - Severe thunderstorms spawned thirty-one tornadoes across Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky. The tornadoes killed 343 persons and caused 15 million dollars damage. Arkansas and Tennessee each reported thirteen tornadoes. The towns of Judsonia AR and Henderson TN were nearly wiped off the map in what proved to be the worst tornado outbreak of record for Arkansas. A tornado, one and a half miles wide at times, left a church the only undamaged building at Judsonia. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm in the Northern High Plains Region produced blizzard conditions in western South Dakota. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Rapid City SD, and snowfall totals ranged up to 20 inches at Lead SD. The high winds produced snow drifts six feet high. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Bitterly cold weather prevailed across the northeastern U.S. Portland ME reported their coldest spring day of record with a morning low of 5 above, and an afternoon high of just 21 degrees. Marquette MI reported a record low of 15 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel)

1989 - Snow blanketed the northeastern U.S. early in the day, with six inches reported at Rutland VT. Morning and afternoon thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds from southwestern Mississippi to southwest Georgia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - The first full day of spring was a cold one for the eastern U.S. Freezing temperatures damaged 62 percent of the peach crop in upstate South Carolina, and 72 percent of the peach crop in the ridge area of South Carolina. Elkins WV, which a week earlier reported a record high of 82 degrees, was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 16 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

[SACRUS]

 

NYC

Mar 22, 1967

NYC: 9.8 inches of snow
EWR: 8.6 inches of snow

[qg_omega]

28 minutes ago, Sundog said:

There was a solid dropoff in precip amunts east of the city:

 

Crazy that 2.87, had just under an inch here

[SACRUS]

 

Rains

LGA: 1.32
NYC: 1.11
EWR: 0.98
 

[Sundog]

Is there a way to get rid of that thin bar on the right side of the screen that narrows down all content that follows below for the whole page? I am talking about the popular posts, popular posters, etc., bar.

[Feen]

cold but looking like a nice good looking day! Spring is not springing yet! 

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy that 2.87, had just under an inch here

that's probably wrong given there's nothing around it with anything even close

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, Feen said:

cold but looking like a nice good looking day! Spring is not springing yet! 

Pretty average day for this time of year maybe a degree or two below 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Pretty average day for this time of year maybe a degree or two below 

These strong downslope days have been beating guidance so we could make it to the low to mid 50s which is a little warmer than the 51° average high.

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Pretty average day for this time of year maybe a degree or two below 

Very average but strong winds and recent warm weather will make it seem a lot colder 

[FPizz]

.56"

Wind gusting into the lower 40s

[TWCCraig]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like we may finally be going into a -AMO cycle like we had in the 1980’s:
 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe those cold anomalies have more to do with where the Gulf stream is at the moment. The Gulf stream isn't stationary and moves over time, sometimes it's further north or south than normal and those anomalies are indicating just that. The Gulf stream is further south than it usually is right now, which is why you have large positive anomalies just south of the cold anomalies. The shelf water near the coast is actually above normal. Looking at SST maps, the same thing was happening this time last year, by June the cold anomalies were gone

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes there have been some CC changes but I'm pretty confident we'll be returning back to a drier regime for a few years (call it a correction to the excessive rainfall of the last two decades) and hotter summers with more westerly flow, not sure about the below zero lows in the winter like the 80s had.  Expect the westerly flow this summer to be more than what we've had the last few summers, more like 2010 and 2002 before that and more like what we had in the 80s and 90s.

Still too early to guess the exact wind direction and rainfall pattern as we head into the summer. We had a dry pattern heading into the summer of 2022 and still got onshore flow east of NYC with over 5 days reaching 100° in NJ west of the sea breeze front. I don’t have much confidence in the models beyond 8-15 days for specifics like wind direction so it will just be a wait and see approach as usual.