LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yeah it was 33 or so for most of the storm I think most of the snowfall accumulation happened at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The map has issues. First, the snowstorm occurred on March 20-21, 2018, not March 28-29. Second, snowfall amounts included: Bridgeport: 3.0"; Farmingdale: 13.1"; Islip: 18.4"; New Brunswick: 8.9"; New York City-Central Park: 8.4"; New York City-JFK Airport: 8.7"; New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 9.6"; Newark: 8.3"; and, White Plains: 7.0" Don is the 10.5 at Newark accurate? And why so little snow at Bridgeport? That's the exact opposite of March 2001, which was another cold challenged borderline event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2018 That Central Park number is crap EDIT: I see you addressed that faulty 4.2 inch number in another post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 As noted yesterday, the GFS currently has a notorious reputation for struggling in the spring, especially when it comes to handling marginally cold air masses during storms. It seems that the model’s algorithms overamplify the cold, feeding back on itself until the simulated atmosphere becomes drastically colder than reality. This often leads to wildly exaggerated snowfall predictions, forecasting massive, historic snowstorms. Today's cycle is no different. 3/18/2025 12z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (10:1 ratio), Valid 4/2/2025 0z: 3/18/2025 12z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (Kuchera), Valid 4/2/2025 0z: This time, let's take a closer look at the historical record. Common snowfall records for Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington are available beginning in March 1892. The GFS forecast has the following select amounts: Baltimore: 10:1: 19.0"; Kuchera: 13.0" Philadelphia: 10:1: 11.9"; Kuchera: 9.9" Washington, DC: 10:1: 16.5"; Kuchera: 10.8" Since common snowfall records began, there has been no storm after March 15th that brought 6" or more snow to all three cities. The latest-season storm to bring 6" or more to all three cities was the March 12-14, 1993 superstorm. Prior to regular recordkeeping, a storm during March 16-17, 1843 brought 6" or more snow to all three cities. The latest-season storm to bring 10" or more to all three cities was the February 17-19, 1979 "President's Day Blizzard." Finally, the biggest snowstorm on record for Washington, DC after March 15th occurred on March 27-28, 1891 when 12.0" of snow fell. Large late-season events tend to be more localized in area e.g., Baltimore-Washington or Baltimore-Philadelphia, but not all three cities pick up substantial amounts of snow. There remains virtually no chance that the GFS's latest idea will verify. At this time of year, its maps for big snowstorms should be dismissed unless there is strong and consistent support from the other guidance. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don is the 10.5 at Newark accurate? And why so little snow at Bridgeport? That's the exact opposite of March 2001, which was another cold challenged borderline event. No. Newark received 8.7". Once one moved north and east of NYC, amounts fell off as the precipitation was lighter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don is the 10.5 at Newark accurate? And why so little snow at Bridgeport? That's the exact opposite of March 2001, which was another cold challenged borderline event. Mar 20-21, 2018 LGA: 9.6 JFK: 8.7 TEB: 8.6 NYC: 8.4 EWR: 8.3 PHL; 7.6 TTN: 7.6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Easy to pick out on a temp map where the low level gunk is lingering vs clearing. Stuck in the 40s here but NE CT well into the 60s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Up to 60 with sun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: NYC might go all four months DJFM without even hitting 70, has that ever happened before Chris? It must have happened at JFK several times before because of the sea breeze. The Euro and CMC have more 70s potential next weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Tropical 48 out there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro and CMC have more 70s potential next weekend. I thought the SSW meant it was supposed to be below normal from next week into April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Up to 60 with sun No sun here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: As noted yesterday, the GFS currently has a notorious reputation for struggling in the spring, especially when it comes to handling marginally cold air masses during storms. It seems that the model’s algorithms overamplify the cold, feeding back on itself until the simulated atmosphere becomes drastically colder than reality. This often leads to wildly exaggerated snowfall predictions, forecasting massive, historic snowstorms. Today's cycle is no different. 3/18/2025 12z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (10:1 ratio), Valid 4/2/2025 0z: 3/18/2025 12z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (Kuchera), Valid 4/2/2025 0z: This time, let's take a closer look at the historical record. Common snowfall records for Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington are available beginning in March 1892. The GFS forecast has the following select amounts: Baltimore: 10:1: 19.0"; Kuchera: 13.0" Philadelphia: 10:1: 11.9"; Kuchera: 9.9" Washington, DC: 10:1: 16.5"; Kuchera: 10.8" Since common snowfall records began, there has been no storm after March 15th that brought 6" or more snow to all three cities. The latest-season storm to bring 6" or more to all three cities was the March 12-14, 1993 superstorm. Prior to regular recordkeeping, a storm during March 16-17, 1843 brought 6" or more snow to all three cities. The latest-season storm to bring 10" or more to all three cities was the February 17-19, 1979 "President's Day Blizzard." Finally, the biggest snowstorm on record for Washington, DC after March 15th occurred on March 27-28, 1891 when 12.0" of snow fell. Large late-season events tend to be more localized in area e.g., Baltimore-Washington or Baltimore-Philadelphia, but not all three cities pick up substantial amounts of snow. There remains virtually no chance that the GFS's latest idea will verify. At this time of year, its maps for big snowstorms should be dismissed unless there is strong and consistent support from the other guidance. Don didn'Philly get nearly 20" of snow in a storm that fringed NYC with only 10" in early April? Strange to get fringed in April, but those maps remind me of that storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 The mild weather will continue through tomorrow. It could turn briefly cooler on tomorrow. The arrival of the cooler air will be preceded by showers or a period of rain tonight into tomorrow morning. Another brief shot of cold air is likely on Sunday. A more sustained period of cold could develop starting late next week. The chill could then linger for much of the remainder of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around March 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. The SOI was +9.72 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.124 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (2.8° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don didn'Philly get nearly 20" of snow in a storm that fringed NYC with only 10" in early April? Strange to get fringed in April, but those maps remind me of that storm.... Yes. The April 3-4, 1915 snowstorm brought 19.4" to Philadelphia and 10.2" to NYC. Baltimore received 6.5" and Washington, DC saw 3.5". Interestingly enough, there was also an area of heavy snow farther south with Richmond and Raleigh both picking up 10.0". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I thought the SSW meant it was supposed to be below normal from next week into April? Record decoupled pattern this winter so the stratosphere hasn’t had the influence that it usually does. Plus it’s more of a final warming than a strong SSW. This has been a bottom up pattern rather than a top down one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I thought the SSW meant it was supposed to be below normal from next week into April? Models may adjust that downward as we get closer it's still 8-9 days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. The April 3-4, 1915 snowstorm brought 19.4" to Philadelphia and 10.2" to NYC. Baltimore received 6.5" and Washington, DC saw 3.5". Interestingly enough, there was also an area of heavy snow farther south with Richmond and Raleigh both picking up 10.0". I would love to see a map of that storm, I wonder how it did all that, was it a double barreled low that robbed certain areas of snow and dropped extra in others (like Philly)? I wonder how much Atlantic City saw in that storm and if there was some location in eastern PA or NJ that saw even more than that 19.4" amount in Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I would love to see a map of that storm, I wonder how it did all that, was it a double barreled low that robbed certain areas of snow and dropped extra in others (like Philly)? I wonder how much Atlantic City saw in that storm and if there was some location in eastern PA or NJ that saw even more than that 19.4" amount in Philly? Atlantic City saw 6.0". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 For the potentially warm or snowy period 3/28-4/3 depending on what you look at, I'm looking for the warmth to get stuck just south of NYC with fog/drizzle then showers/storms temperatures in the 60s mostly. 73 up to Newark maybe. But I could see rapid warming during the second or third week of April perhaps up to mid 80s region wide for a time, and 90 first or second week of May. I think we'll see a strong Bermuda HP set up early and often this season. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: For the potentially warm or snowy period 3/28-4/3 depending on what you look at, I'm looking for the warmth to get stuck just south of NYC with fog/drizzle then showers/storms temperatures in the 60s mostly. 73 up to Newark maybe. But I could see rapid warming during the second or third week of April perhaps up to mid 80s region wide for a time, and 90 first or second week of May. I think we'll see a strong Bermuda HP set up early and often this season. WX/PT Wow AccuWeather is going for a cold first half of April for the East Coast. What are you seeing for NYC down to DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Looks like a solid rain event coming overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 The fog/clouds coming off the water today was pretty cool. In that first photo you should see Manhattan. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Moderate to heavy rain continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Pouring in Queens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 4 hours ago, Jersey Andrew said: Wow AccuWeather is going for a cold first half of April for the East Coast. What are you seeing for NYC down to DC? To some extent at least for the first week or ten days of April I tend to agree with Accuweather if that's what they're going for. I think that towards the end of the second week of April or the beginning or middle of the third week of April the pattern will somewhat dramatically flip/flop bringing warmth to most of the East Coast from D.C. to NYC. When I speak of warmth in this case I am speaking of 70s and lower 80s, not 90. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 .91 so far with moderate rain continuing at my station 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 When's the changeover to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 52 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: When's the changeover to snow? next winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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