LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 2:21 PM, SACRUS said: 2018 Expand Wait this can't be right, NYC did not get 4.2 inches, all of us got 8-9 inches out of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 2:19 PM, SACRUS said: 1958 Expand Now this was a real March snowstorm (similar to the March 1956 and March 1967 snowstorms.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 12:02 PM, bluewave said: As warm as we have been, the greatest departures have been to our west with numerous +10s. Expand Yes, it would have been a truly warm March if we had made it to 80+ at least once. Thats my benchmark for a warm March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 1:16 AM, Stormlover74 said: 8th 60 degree day of the month and possibly the last...tomorrow and Saturday are iffy Expand on sunny days it's easy to hit 60 because of how high the sun is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 12:19 AM, donsutherland1 said: The mild weather will continue through tomorrow. It could turn briefly cooler on Friday. The arrival of the cooler air will be preceded by a period of rain Thursday night into Friday. A stronger shot of cold is possible next week. The chill could then linger for much of the remainder of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around March 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. The SOI was +12.59 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.053 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.7° (2.9° above normal). Expand Looks like March projections for temperature are dropping, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/19/2025 at 9:23 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Perfect day for the south shore with minimal ocean influence. We miss out on so many of these days with a frigid/raw sea breeze. Expand Yes we need a high sea wall to keep that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:14 PM, LibertyBell said: Wait this can't be right, NYC did not get 4.2 inches, all of us got 8-9 inches out of that storm. Expand 8.4 in NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:19 PM, LibertyBell said: Looks like March projections for temperature are dropping, Don? Expand Yes, the guidance has grown cooler for the last week or so of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:21 PM, donsutherland1 said: Yes, the guidance has grown cooler for the last week or so of the month. Expand and the first half of April too, although the forecast for Spring as a whole (MAM) is still above normal, which means that it's probably going to be really warm for the second half of April and May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maley.chris78@gmail.com Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:21 PM, LibertyBell said: and the first half of April too, although the forecast for Spring as a whole (MAM) is still above normal, which means that it's probably going to be really warm for the second half of April and May? Expand SSW effects kicking in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:11 PM, LibertyBell said: 4/1/97 was a huge bust, we were supposed to get 8-16 inches but got 1-2 and Boston got 30 inches. That was like the 2004 ALCS Expand was mostly rain here...got a couple hours of snow after a dryslot that dropped a sloppy 3 inches mainly on the grass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:17 PM, LibertyBell said: Yes, it would have been a truly warm March if we had made it to 80+ at least once. Thats my benchmark for a warm March. Expand Probably have to wait until April for the first 80° day at the usual warm spots as 70s will probably be the max this month. Monthly Data for March 2025 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 72 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 72 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 72 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 71 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 71 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 71 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 71 ESTELL MANOR COOP 71 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 71 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 71 SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 70 Newark Area ThreadEx 70 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 70 EWING 3 WNW COOP 70 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 70 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 70 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 70 OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 70 Trenton Area ThreadEx 70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:13 PM, LibertyBell said: The April 2nd storm? Expand it was in early April-so that's likely it-got a nice dump of cold air the day before and the storm was overnight-got 7-8 inches that was vaporized by sundown lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 NYC on track to continue the longest March under 1” snowfall streak to a record breaking 6 consecutive years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:33 PM, Brian5671 said: it was in early April-so that's likely it-got a nice dump of cold air the day before and the storm was overnight-got 7-8 inches that was vaporized by sundown lol Expand I love April snows, March snows always disappoint because we always expect more, but April snows are more cherished because you know it's the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:33 PM, bluewave said: Probably have to wait until April for the first 80° day at the usual warm spots as low 70s will probably be the max this month. Monthly Data for March 2025 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 72 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 72 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 72 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 71 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 71 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 71 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 71 ESTELL MANOR COOP 71 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 71 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 71 SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 70 Newark Area ThreadEx 70 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 70 EWING 3 WNW COOP 70 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 70 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 70 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 70 OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 70 Trenton Area ThreadEx 70 Expand NYC might go all four months DJFM without even hitting 70, has that ever happened before Chris? It must have happened at JFK several times before because of the sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:25 PM, maley.chris78@gmail.com said: SSW effects kicking in? Expand Yes, starting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:32 PM, Brian5671 said: was mostly rain here...got a couple hours of snow after a dryslot that dropped a sloppy 3 inches mainly on the grass Expand I saw a snowfall map somewhere that showed even the NJ coast got 6-8 inches, we got screwed from both directions lol. NYC got screwed in the April 1996 snowstorm like that too, but at least we got 4-5 inches here near JFK in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 3:33 PM, Brian5671 said: it was in early April-so that's likely it-got a nice dump of cold air the day before and the storm was overnight-got 7-8 inches that was vaporized by sundown lol Expand I rank it with April 2003, we got about the same 6-8 inches in both storms. So maybe once every 15 years we get a storm like this? Those two storms prove snow can definitely stick well in April as long as the snowfall rates are high enough. April 2003 was an all day snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 20 Author Share Posted March 20 The frontogen/deform band from the storm that hit around the afternoon rush hour St. Patrick’s Day week (I forget the actual date) back in 2018 was insane. It was the heaviest snow I ever saw in my life. Cars were stuck on almost every road I turned down coming home from work. It was easily snowing at 4” per hour at one point, true white out conditions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 2:48 PM, Brian5671 said: Got ripped off here-I remember a forecast for 12 inches and got a few inches of slop, but we got hammered a week later with 8 inches-the last event of that incredible pattern. Expand It was the end of our Golden Era of snow 2000-2018, feels like a lifetime ago now. 6 of 7 have been below normal since then and well below normal at that. Only 2 notable months in those 7 years, Feb 21 and Jan 22. Been some real lean times in the snowfall department. Even in a relatively cold winter like this one, only roughly 10-20 inches locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/14/2025 at 1:42 PM, LibertyBell said: Interesting-- I like drier here because drier means hotter. In the summer, when we have a wet one, it's also cooler because the sun's radiation is used up trying to dry the ground. I don't like averages because they don't properly account for day time extreme temperatures and hot days (highs above 90). That's how I judge a summer's heat. Expand This setup looks promising. Still favoring somewhat wetter than normal conditions along the east coast, but plenty of above normal conditions from coast to coast, and an expansive area of below normal precipitation favored across much of the country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 4:03 PM, kat5hurricane said: It was the end of our Golden Era of snow 2000-2018, feels like a lifetime ago now. 6 of 7 have been below normal since then and well below normal at that. Only 2 notable months in those 7 years, Feb 21 and Jan 22. Been some real lean times in the snowfall department. Expand Exactly. Been generally awful outside of the winter of 20-21. No doubt about it we have entered a period of lousy snowfall winters.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 4:03 PM, snowman19 said: The frontogen/deform band from the storm that hit around the afternoon rush hour St. Patrick’s Day week (I forget the actual date) back in 2018 was insane. It was the heaviest snow I ever saw in my life. Cars were stuck on almost every road I turned down coming home from work. It was easily snowing at 4” per hour at one point, true white out conditions Expand Yeah it was heavy wet slop too-lots of tree damage here and schools were closed for 2-3 days not due to snow but trees lying across roadways.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 4:05 PM, TheClimateChanger said: This setup looks promising. Still favoring somewhat wetter than normal conditions along the east coast, but plenty of above normal conditions from coast to coast, and an expansive area of below normal precipitation favored across much of the country. Expand I like this because our heat comes from the west. Another hot summer like this happened in 1983, look how wet that year was and yet it was our hottest summer on record before 1991 and 1993. For JFK it held the record until 2010! Look at September 1983 we had 6 days of 90+ including a 96 as late as 9/11. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 4:03 PM, snowman19 said: The frontogen/deform band from the storm that hit around the afternoon rush hour St. Patrick’s Day week (I forget the actual date) back in 2018 was insane. It was the heaviest snow I ever saw in my life. Cars were stuck on almost every road I turned down coming home from work. It was easily snowing at 4” per hour at one point, true white out conditions Expand what kind of storm was this-- a noreaster with marginal temperatures for the coast? when we were mixing early on I had nightmares of March 2001 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 2:21 PM, SACRUS said: 2018 Expand The map has issues. First, the snowstorm occurred on March 20-21, 2018, not March 28-29. Second, snowfall amounts included: Bridgeport: 3.0"; Farmingdale: 13.1"; Islip: 18.4"; New Brunswick: 8.9"; New York City-Central Park: 8.4"; New York City-JFK Airport: 8.7"; New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 9.6"; Newark: 8.3"; and, White Plains: 7.0" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 20 Author Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 4:12 PM, Brian5671 said: Yeah it was heavy wet slop too-lots of tree damage here and schools were closed for 2-3 days not due to snow but trees lying across roadways.... Expand Yep. Trees and telephone poles down galore in my area. Numerous reports of thundersnow with that storm too. Real strong elevated convection, I remember the NAM soundings being dead on from the 12z run, showing off the charts CAPE instability with intense UVVs. HM was still active in these forums at that point and I remember him saying there was going to be a lot of lightning/thunder with the band that formed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/20/2025 at 4:17 PM, LibertyBell said: what kind of storm was this-- a noreaster with marginal temperatures for the coast? when we were mixing early on I had nightmares of March 2001 lol. Expand yeah it was 33 or so for most of the storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Models have increased a bit along and just west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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