MJO812 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Gfs is a weenies dream Now back to bed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 And just like that…..the unbelievably horrendous, outlier GFS completely caves to all the other guidance for Friday. Poof! It’s gone! Literally the worst model there is, hands down. Not even worth looking at anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: And just like that…..the unbelievably horrendous, outlier GFS completely caves to all the other guidance for Friday. Poof! It’s gone! Literally the worst model there is, hands down. Not even worth looking at anymore But you will still look at it. You aren't fooling anyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: But you will still look at it. You aren't fooling anyone. I enjoy the entertainment value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 42 minutes ago, snowman19 said: And just like that…..the unbelievably horrendous, outlier GFS completely caves to all the other guidance for Friday. Poof! It’s gone! Literally the worst model there is, hands down. Not even worth looking at anymore Yep was never going to happen. Zero cold air and you'd need a perfect track with heavy precip to even have a chance....same ol same ol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Frosty this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: And just like that…..the unbelievably horrendous, outlier GFS completely caves to all the other guidance for Friday. Poof! It’s gone! Literally the worst model there is, hands down. Not even worth looking at anymore Of course it did. The forecast rule since 18-19 is that the model showing the coldest outcome and more snow is usually wrong. But from 09-10 to 17-18 more often than not the snowiest model outcome was correct. While this isn’t great for the snow lovers, it is an important model forecast pattern that helps us weed out the more unreliable model runs. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 47 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I enjoy the entertainment value Ha lol Gfs still snowy in the long range. It's definitely going to get active but slim chance of snow but not a zero chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: The higher minimums contaminate that record, we measure heat by number of hot days (highs of 90 or higher.) Thus excessively wet summers get an artificial boost as does increased urbanization. I go by averages, not extremes. Number of 90 days is good for relative measuring/records, but averages tell a much more complete story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 48 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I go by averages, not extremes. Number of 90 days is good for relative measuring/records, but averages tell a much more complete story. we can separate hottest summers (number of 90 degree days) vs greatest positive deviations from the mean (highest averages). A fine distinction, but it is one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is a weenies dream Now back to bed you were clearly having a waking dream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 50 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ha lol Gfs still snowy in the long range. It's definitely going to get active but slim chance of snow but not a zero chance. Yes because this isn't 1955-56 or 1966-67 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 The GFS, in its current version, has a notorious reputation for struggling in the spring, especially when it comes to handling marginally cold air masses during storms. It seems that the model’s algorithms overamplify the cold, feeding back on itself until the simulated atmosphere becomes drastically colder than reality. This often leads to wildly exaggerated snowfall predictions, forecasting massive, historic snowstorms. Absent strong support from the other guidance, its big snowfall projections are pure fantasy. Most now know this reality. Therefore, few (mainly on X) now call attention to such runs. The two below maps from Pivotal Weather illustrate the GFS's problem: 3/18/2025 12z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (10:1 ratio), Valid 3/22/2025 0z: 3/19/2025 0z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (10:1 ratio), Valid 3/31/2025 12z: Since 1869, New York City's 10 biggest snowstorms after March 20th are: 1. 11.8", March 20-21, 1958 2. 10.2", April 3-4, 1915 3. 10.0", April 12-14, 1875 4. 9.6", April 6, 1982 5. 9.0", March 22, 1967 6. 8.5", April 1, 1924 7. 8.4", March 21-22, 2018 8. 6.5", April 8-9, 1917 and April 5, 1944 10. 6.4", April 6-7, 1938 Its latest-season snowfall of 12" or more occurred on March 12-14, 1888. Its latest-season snowfall of 24" or more occurred on February 11-12, 2006. Those are Central Park measurements. Parts of New York City very likely saw two feet of snow during the 1888 blizzard. Although one can never fully rule out an unprecedented event perhaps a farther south version of the March 31-April 1997 snowstorm that dumped 25.4" at Boston, but there was strong support for a big event just ahead of the storm. One needs strong and sustained support, especially for extraordinary events. Given the GFS's known springtime bias, it's better to wait for another model to take the lead on any potential late-season significant or major snow event. A major snowstorm remains very unlikely for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The GFS has been an outlier at all times (most recently both the 3/19 0z and 6z runs). Moreover, the historic experience following the kind of strong PNA+ ridge that predominated during the second half of February has not been followed by a 10" or greater snowfall in New York City during March 1 or later (1950-2024). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Just now, donsutherland1 said: The GFS, in its current form, has a notorious reputation for struggling in the spring, especially when it comes to handling marginally cold air masses during storms. It seems that the model’s algorithms overamplify the cold, feeding back on itself until the simulated atmosphere becomes drastically colder than reality. This often leads to wildly exaggerated snowfall predictions, forecasting massive, historic snowstorms. Absent strong support from the other guidance, its big snowfall projections are pure fantasy. Most now know this reality. Therefore, few (mainly on X) now call attention to such runs. The two below maps from Pivotal Weather illustrate the GFS's problem: 3/18/2025 12z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (10:1 ratio), Valid 3/22/2025 0z: 3/19/2025 0z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (10:1 ratio), Valid 3/31/2025 12z: You'd need some epic cold and/or insane snowfall to accumulate that this late in the season. I'd take take it though lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 7 minutes ago, steve392 said: You'd need some epic cold and/or insane snowfall to accumulate that this late in the season. I'd take take it though lol Yep-usually March events are preceded by a big arctic outbreak of cold air. That's nowhere in the cards for the rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 47 / 31 and likely the warmest of the next 7 days with low - mid/upper 60s. Light rain tomorrow up to 0.50 inches with another windy day coming on Friday. Weekend split but dry with a warmer Sat / cooler Sunday and the next shot at rain on Monday near 0.50 inches. Ridge west and trough in the east keeps it near normal / slightly below next week (once past Monday) through the 28th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Records: Highs: EWR: 77 (2012) NYC: 76 (1918) LGA: 72 (2012) JFK: 69 (2010) Lows: EWR: 8 (1967) * coldest reading post Mar 15th on record at Newark NYC: 8 (1967) LGA: 10 (1967) JFK: 7 (1967) Historical: 1907: The highest March temperature in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, was set when the temperature soared to 97 degrees. Dodge City, Kansas, also set a March record with 98 degrees. Denver, Colorado, set a daily record high of 81 degrees. 1935 - Suffocating dust storms occurred frequently in southeastern Colorado between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground. Schools were closed, and many rural homes were deserted by tenants. (The Weather Channel) 1948: An estimated F4 tornado moved through Fosterburg, Bunker Hill, and Gillespie, Illinois, killing 33 people and injuring 449 others. 2,000 buildings in Bunker Hill were damaged or destroyed. The total damage was $3.6 million. 1950 - Timberline Lodge reported 246 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the state of Oregon. (The Weather Channel) 1956 - The second heavy snowstorm in just three days hit Boston. Nearby Blue Hill received 19.5 inches contributing to their snowiest March of record. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced rain and snow from the northern and central Pacific coast to the northern and central Rockies. Heavier snowfall totals included 13 inches at Clear Creek UT, 12 inches at Snow Camp CA and Glacier Park MT, and 10 inches at Kayenta AZ. Wind gusts reached 54 mph at Winslow AZ. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Seven cities in California and Nevada reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 89 degrees. Five cities in south central Texas reported record lows, including El Paso, with a reading of 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Six cities reported new record low temperatures for the date as cold arctic air settled into the Upper Midwest for Palm Sunday, including Marquette MI with a reading of 11 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Rather wintry weather in the eastern U.S. replaced the 80 degree weather of the previous week. Freezing temperatures were reported in northern sections of the Gulf Coast States, and snow began to whiten the Northern and Central Appalachians. Up to eight inches of snow was reported in western Virginia. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2003 - Denver digs out from the second-biggest snowstorm in the city's history. Almost two and a half feet of wet snow over 36 hours shuts down the city. The month ends as Denver's snowiest March on record. 2003: One of the worst blizzards since records began in 1872, struck the Denver metro area and Colorado's Front Range started with a vengeance. Denver International Airport was closed, stranding about 4,000 travelers. The weight of the snow caused a 40-foot gash in a portion of the roof, forcing the evacuation of that section of the main terminal building. Winds gusting to 40 mph produced drifts six feet high in places around the city. Snowfall in foothills was even more impressive. The heavy wet snow caused numerous roofs of homes and businesses to collapse. The estimated cost of property damage alone, not including large commercial buildings, was $93 million, making it the most costly snowstorm on record for the area. In Denver alone, at least 258 structures were damaged. Up to 135,000 people lost power during the storm, and it took several days for power to be restored. Mayor Wellington Webb of Denver said, "This is the storm of the century, a backbreaker, a record-breaker, a roof breaker." Avalanches in the mountains and foothills closed many roads, including Interstate 70, stranding hundreds of skiers and travelers. The Eldora Ski area 270 skiers were stranded when an avalanche closed the main access road. After the storm, a military helicopter had to deliver food to the resort until the road could be cleared. Two people died in Aurora from heart attacks after shoveling the heavy wet snow. The National Guard sent 40 soldiers and 20 heavy-duty vehicles to rescue stranded travelers along a section of I-70. The storm made March 2003 the snowiest March on record, the fourth snowiest month on record, and the fifth wettest March on record. The total of 22.9 inches is the most significant 24-hour total in March. The storm also broke 19 consecutive months of below-average precipitation for Denver. The 31.8 inches of snow was recorded at the former Stapleton Airport in Denver for its second-greatest snowstorm on record (the greatest was 37.5 inches on 12/4-12/5/1913) with up to three feet in other areas in and around the city and more than seven feet in the foothills. Higher amounts included: Fritz Peak: 87.5 inches, Rollinsville: 87.5 inches, Canin Creek: 83 inches, Near Bergen Park: 74 inches, Northwest of Evergreen: 73 inches, Cola Creek Canyon: 72 inches, Georgetown: 70 inches, Jamestown: 63 inches, Near Blackhawk: 60 inches, Eldora Ski Area: 55 inches, Ken Caryl Ranch: 46.6 inches, Aurora: 40 inches, Centennial: 38 inches, Buckley AFB: 37 inches, Southwest Denver: 35 inches, Louisville: 34 inches, Arvada: 32 inches, Broomfield: 31 inches, Westminster: 31 inches and Boulder: 22.5 inches. This storm was the result of a very moist intense slow-moving Pacific system that tracked across the four corners and into southeastern Colorado, which allowed a deep easterly upslope to form among the front-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 NYC Mar 18 - 19 1956: 4.7 inches of snow 1992: 6.2 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Just about or up to an inch between the Thu and Mon forecasted rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The GFS, in its current version, has a notorious reputation for struggling in the spring, especially when it comes to handling marginally cold air masses during storms. It seems that the model’s algorithms overamplify the cold, feeding back on itself until the simulated atmosphere becomes drastically colder than reality. This often leads to wildly exaggerated snowfall predictions, forecasting massive, historic snowstorms. Absent strong support from the other guidance, its big snowfall projections are pure fantasy. Most now know this reality. Therefore, few (mainly on X) now call attention to such runs. The two below maps from Pivotal Weather illustrate the GFS's problem: 3/18/2025 12z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (10:1 ratio), Valid 3/22/2025 0z: 3/19/2025 0z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (10:1 ratio), Valid 3/31/2025 12z: Since 1869, New York City's 10 biggest snowstorms after March 20th are: 1. 11.8", March 20-21, 1958 2. 10.2", April 3-4, 1915 3. 10.0", April 12-14, 1875 4. 9.6", April 6, 1982 5. 9.0", March 22, 1967 6. 8.5", April 1, 1924 7. 8.4", March 21-22, 2018 8. 6.5", April 8-9, 1917 and April 5, 1944 10. 6.4", April 6-7, 1938 Its latest-season snowfall of 12" or more occurred on March 12-14, 1888. Its latest-season snowfall of 24" or more occurred on February 11-12, 2006. Those are Central Park measurements. Parts of New York City very likely saw two feet of snow during the 1888 blizzard. Although one can never fully rule out an unprecedented event perhaps a farther south version of the March 31-April 1997 snowstorm that dumped 25.4" at Boston, but there was strong support for a big event just ahead of the storm. One needs strong and sustained support, especially for extraordinary events. Given the GFS's known springtime bias, it's better to wait for another model to take the lead on any potential late-season significant or major snow event. A major snowstorm remains very unlikely for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The GFS has been an outlier at all times (most recently both the 3/19 0z and 6z runs). Moreover, the historic experience following the kind of strong PNA+ ridge that predominated during the second half of February has not been followed by a 10" or greater snowfall in New York City during March 1 or later (1950-2024). It’s a total embarrassment and it pulls this crap literally every March and early-mid April….shows historic blizzards and 20, 30, 40 inches of snow over a 16 day period, which ends of verifying as not even so much as a trace. Complete circus show 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s a total embarrassment and it pulls this crap literally every March and early-mid April….shows historic blizzards and 20, 30, 40 inches of snow over a 16 day period, which ends of verifying as not even so much as a trace. Complete circus show And what's it's excuse in January and February? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s a total embarrassment and it pulls this crap literally every March and early-mid April….shows historic blizzards and 20, 30, 40 inches of snow over a 16 day period, which ends of verifying as not even so much as a trace. Complete circus show It does ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Ha lol Gfs still snowy in the long range. It's definitely going to get active but slim chance of snow but not a zero chance. It won’t happen. Hopefully we can get westerly wind sunny days and fewer socked in easterly wind days. We could definitely use the rain so whatever comes on Friday is welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 41 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It won’t happen. Hopefully we can get westerly wind sunny days and fewer socked in easterly wind days. We could definitely use the rain so whatever comes on Friday is welcome. Saying it won't happen is stupid. A possibility yes but a slim one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Should decommission the GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 47 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Saying it won't happen is stupid. A possibility yes but a slim one. Zero cold air so it's likely zippo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Very sad times Today is the last day of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Very sad times Today is the last day of winter one can argue the last day of winter was 3/1-3/2 with that arctic shot-been a blowtorch since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Yep-usually March events are preceded by a big arctic outbreak of cold air. That's nowhere in the cards for the rest of the month No real arctic air in eastern Canada. At 11 AM, it's 7 degrees on the western shore of Hudson Bbbbay, and some negative teens in the NW Territories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: one can argue the last day of winter was 3/1-3/2 with that arctic shot-been a blowtorch since then My new averages are based solely on 2024. So far March has been well below normal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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