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March 2025


snowman19
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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wait, last March was #1 warmest through the first 15 days? How's this possible-- it didn't even hit 80 in March.  The first 15 days of March 1990 must have been quite a bit warmer?

 

You know the answer. You seem to recollect a lot about past heat waves being more intense. The reality is with higher dews, the minimums are skewing the averages. 85/55 is cooler then 75/67.

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39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wait, last March was #1 warmest through the first 15 days? How's this possible-- it didn't even hit 80 in March.  The first 15 days of March 1990 must have been quite a bit warmer?

 

The first 17 days of March 2024 were a scorching blowtorch without precedence in the historical record. And it wasn't driven by minimum temperatures either. Mean maximum was more than 1F warmer than second place, and nearly 2.5F warmer than 1990 at Central Park.

FPYTrQJ.png

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50 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You know the answer. You seem to recollect a lot about past heat waves being more intense. The reality is with higher dews, the minimums are skewing the averages. 85/55 is cooler then 75/67.

It's not cooler, it only feels cooler.  I look at that the same way I look at wind chill.

Actually it didn't feel cooler, back in March 1990 everyone was wearing Bermuda shorts lol.

I just don't find much usefulness in *average* temperatures.

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22 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The first 17 days of March 2024 were a scorching blowtorch without precedence in the historical record. And it wasn't driven by minimum temperatures either. Mean maximum was more than 1F warmer than second place, and nearly 2.5F warmer than 1990 at Central Park.

FPYTrQJ.png

But no 80 degree highs?

March 1990 must have started out very cold, because that heatwave in the second week was truly historic.

 

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22 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The first 17 days of March 2024 were a scorching blowtorch without precedence in the historical record. And it wasn't driven by minimum temperatures either. Mean maximum was more than 1F warmer than second place, and nearly 2.5F warmer than 1990 at Central Park.

FPYTrQJ.png

For it to be without precedence there would have to be at least 3 days with a high of 80 or higher.

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But no 80 degree highs?

March 1990 must have started out very cold, because that heatwave in the second week was truly historic.

 

Screenshot_20250318-162234.thumb.png.6352b9ad1da26b0ba9b93b0f88c81aab.png

And 3 to 4 inches of snow fell on the 7th. 

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3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Screenshot_20250318-162234.thumb.png.6352b9ad1da26b0ba9b93b0f88c81aab.png

And 3 to 4 inches of snow fell on the 7th. 

Thanks, it was a lot more exciting than either of the last two Marches (multiple extremes lol), or any March of this decade for that matter.

Getting snow and 85 degrees in the same month is absolute weather perfection !

It cooled down after the 17th didn't it? I remember that-- and we had half an inch of snow in the first week of April that year.

 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, it was a lot more exciting than either of the last two Marches (multiple extremes lol), or any March of this decade for that matter.

Getting snow and 85 degrees in the same month is absolute weather perfection !

It cooled down after the 17th didn't it? I remember that-- and we had half an inch of snow in the first week of April that year.

 

Here's the rest of the month. This is for Central Park just to be clear. 

Screenshot_20250318-163005.thumb.png.67889e98f11e14ee994cd8e1862c6c0e.png

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:
Not sure I can recall a single model being such an outlier for so long and this close to the event (72 hrs). It almost has to be wrong, but...
Image

18Z or 0z it will shift north to match the others-there was another recent event where it did this....a clipper around 3/1 which was way too far south

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14 minutes ago, RU848789 said:
Not sure I can recall a single model being such an outlier for so long and this close to the event (72 hrs). It almost has to be wrong, but...
Image

Haha I love this. We need a thumbs up emoji

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13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18Z or 0z it will shift north to match the others-there was another recent event where it did this....a clipper around 3/1 which was way too far south

 

Yea I remember that, it was giving us snow meanwhile other models had it going through northern New England latitude. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not cooler, it only feels cooler.  I look at that the same way I look at wind chill.

Actually it didn't feel cooler, back in March 1990 everyone was wearing Bermuda shorts lol.

I just don't find much usefulness in *average* temperatures.

I only adhere to average temperatures since records have been kept.

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:
Not sure I can recall a single model being such an outlier for so long and this close to the event (72 hrs). It almost has to be wrong, but...
Image

are you a :weenie:

Come on even Anthony gave up

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Just now, Feen said:

are you a :weenie:

Come on even Anthony gave up

come to think of it, a setup like this happened back in March 22nd 1998 where it was poorly forecasted and NYC ended up getting 5 inches of snow that early morning. Maybe the date is wrong but I know it was late March 1998 

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20 minutes ago, Feen said:

come to think of it, a setup like this happened back in March 22nd 1998 where it was poorly forecasted and NYC ended up getting 5 inches of snow that early morning. Maybe the date is wrong but I know it was late March 1998 

 

That surprise 5 inches (which I remember well) ruined the record for least snowy winter on record. 

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The mild weather will continue through Thursday. It could turn briefly cooler on Friday. The arrival of the cooler air will be preceded by a period of rain Thursday night into Friday.

A stronger shot of cold is possible next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around March 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +12.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.870 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal).

 

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5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

18Z or 0z it will shift north to match the others-there was another recent event where it did this....a clipper around 3/1 which was way too far south

Not only did that not happen, but the Euro is now showing an inch or two along/N of 80 at 18Z, instead of well N of 84 at 12Z.  It's not being a weenie to simply point out what models are showing.  There are still no other models on board and 95 snow is still a very low probability, but not zero - and both the NWS Philly and NYC offices are now mentioning the potential for at least inland snow for the first time.  

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6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Not only did that not happen, but the Euro is now showing an inch or two along/N of 80 at 18Z, instead of well N of 84 at 12Z.  It's not being a weenie to simply point out what models are showing.  There are still no other models on board and 95 snow is still a very low probability, but not zero - and both the NWS Philly and NYC offices are now mentioning the potential for at least inland snow for the first time.  

Wow.  Maybe the meso models will come on board but for now they are well north 

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