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March 2025


snowman19
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  On 3/17/2025 at 11:24 PM, Wannabehippie said:

I wouldn't hold my breath on this if I were you.

 

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What makes you think I am?  I think I've made it clear that this is a very low probability event for 95, at least, but it's not a zero probability event, as snow is obviously possible in late March.  Would need to see support from other models to start to be truly interested in this.  

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The area picked up a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain. In the wake of the rainstorm, the mild weather will continue through the middle of the week. It could turn briefly cooler late next week.

Aside from some rain late in the week, the week ahead should be mainly dry once today's rainstorm departs.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around March 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +9.96 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.998 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal).

 

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  On 3/18/2025 at 12:16 AM, RU848789 said:

What makes you think I am?  I think I've made it clear that this is a very low probability event for 95, at least, but it's not a zero probability event, as snow is obviously possible in late March.  Would need to see support from other models to start to be truly interested in this.  

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And there is no support from any other models. Zero, zilch, nada, zippo, nothing. Literally not one other model (EURO, CMC, EURO-AI, ICON, UKMET, NAM, RGEM, NBM) looks anything at all like the GFS. It’s in a universe all to its own again and it’s going to be wrong again. People can track GFS digital snow ghosts all they want, that’s their right. They’ve been doing it since November, so why stop now?

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  On 3/18/2025 at 11:06 AM, BxEngine said:

So much for the last freeze being last week :rolleyes:

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You mean this morning? I think whoever said that probably meant the city anyway. I got down to 34, currently still there. Even rural northern Nassau is 33. Too much wind for full cooldown in the farmland down here. 

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  On 3/18/2025 at 11:09 AM, Sundog said:

You mean this morning? I think whoever said that probably meant the city anyway. I got down to 34, currently still there. Even rural northern Nassau is 33. Too much wind for full cooldown in the farmland down here. 

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Metro != city. Ill keep fighting it, dont care. Lol

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Top 10 warmest start to March across the region. Most spots are running +4 to +7. It’s just goes to show when we get a few months a little colder than average that the rebound warmer has been more impressive during recent years. 
 

SMQ…+5.4°

FWN..+6.7°

EWR…+5.8°

NYC….+4.1°

LGA…..+3.8°

JFK……+6.1°

HPN…..+4.4°

BDR……+4.2°

ISP…….+4.8°

POU…..+5.1°

BGM…+6.9°

PHL…+5.8°

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  On 3/18/2025 at 11:36 AM, bluewave said:

Top 10 warmest start to March across the region. Most spots are running +4 to +7. It’s just goes to show when we get a few months a little colder than average that the rebound warmer has been more impressive during recent years. 
 

SMQ…+5.4°

FWN..+6.7°

EWR…+5.8°

NYC….+4.1°

LGA…..+3.8°

JFK……+6.1°

HPN…..+4.4°

BDR……+4.2°

ISP…….+4.8°

POU…..+5.1°

BGM…+6.9°

PHL…+5.8°

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Definitely does not feel like a warm March on Long Island.  

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  On 3/18/2025 at 11:40 AM, 495weatherguy said:

Definitely does not feel like a warm March on Long Island.  

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We're getting used to North Carolina averages. I didn't think it was that warm either until I saw bluewave's numbers and I was shocked. And that's up against the fake new normals that constantly go up every 10 years. 

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  On 3/18/2025 at 11:36 AM, bluewave said:

Top 10 warmest start to March across the region. Most spots are running +4 to +7. It’s just goes to show when we get a few months a little colder than average that the rebound warmer has been more impressive during recent years. 
 

SMQ…+5.4°

FWN..+6.7°

EWR…+5.8°

NYC….+4.1°

LGA…..+3.8°

JFK……+6.1°

HPN…..+4.4°

BDR……+4.2°

ISP…….+4.8°

POU…..+5.1°

BGM…+6.9°

PHL…+5.8°

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Thats insane. We’re so f*cked. 

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  On 3/17/2025 at 11:36 PM, steve392 said:

I am really sick of this god dam wind

  Every day off its just howling out.  Can't work outside with getting cold and havi g stuff blow all over. 

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No one wants this crap useless cold weather now.

When will climate change finally become strong enough so we don't get this crap cold windy weather anymore after March 10th and April.

That's what I'm waiting for!

After the time change it should never be below 40 until next fall.

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  On 3/18/2025 at 11:44 AM, Sundog said:

We're getting used to North Carolina averages. I didn't think it was that warm either until I saw bluewave's numbers and I was shocked. And that's up against the fake new normals that constantly go up every 10 years. 

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The wind has been relentless as well.

A few sunny 75 degree days with out wind would feel great 

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39 / 22 off a low of 30 here.  Warmer the next two days with sun, low to mid 60s.  Next shot at rain on later Thursday (05) then some clouds may stick around Fri / Sat.  Rain on monday may bring the an additional 0.5 inches of rain.  Overall near normal into the final 10 days of the month.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

 

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  On 3/18/2025 at 1:01 PM, SACRUS said:

 

39 / 22 off a low of 30 here.  Warmer the next two days with sun, low to mid 60s.  Next shot at rain on later Thursday (05) then some clouds may stick around Fri / Sat.  Rain on monday may bring the an additional 0.5 inches of rain.  Overall near normal into the final 10 days of the month.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

 

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Saturday/Sunday should be fine (a nice weekend.)

 

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