RU848789 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Surprised nobody posted these last night. Yes, it's still a longshot at 8-9 days out, but it's not impossible to have snow in late March and it's nice to see two models showing some snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 And this is only 4-5 days out on the GFS, with other models showing snow only further north during this time - and even the GFS ensemble showing that, too (indicating the Op is probably an outlier), but ya never know... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 More virtual snow.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, bluewave said: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&var=max_gust&dir=aoa&thres=35&month=jan&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=js December tied for 1st place with the most days having 35KT or greater wind gusts at Newark. January was in first place with the most days with wind gusts at our above 35 KT at Newark and February was in 2nd place. So a very active Great Lakes cutter storm track with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. It’s why we got so little snowfall this winter despite the average temperatures close to long term average. Numerous seasons close to this 34.8° average temperature had significantly higher snowfalls. But on the 11 days with .25 of precipitation this winter NYC averaged 41° which is too warm for heavy snow. So this highlights the challenges of getting close to average or above average snowfall since 2018-2019 with such a fast Northern Stream and warm storm track pushed so far north. Great data, thanks! I like looking at max wind gusts, like this graphic, more than mean wind speeds, since I think people "feel" like it's windier than normal based on how often we have very gusty winds, whereas I don't think most are thinking about whether the mean wind speed is 12 mph or 10 mph over a month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17 Author Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: And this is only 4-5 days out on the GFS, with other models showing snow only further north during this time - and even the GFS ensemble showing that, too (indicating the Op is probably an outlier), but ya never know... More digital, phantom snow from the Garbage Forecasting System!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: More digital, phantom snow from the Garbage Forecasting System!! Probably, but it's enough to keep you and a few hundred other desperate winter weather weenies hanging on for another few days, just like the threat for 3/25... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 0.75" overnight. Not bad, matched most forecasts for my area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 57 / 56 clouds - 0.99 in the bucket. Clearing slowly by sunset. Back to the 60s Tue / Wed with sunshine. Some light rain / showers Thu evening into Friday. The weekend currently looks dry. Wetter to open the period 24 - 29 with trough coming into the east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Records: Highs: EWR: 78 (1990) NYC: 75 (1945) LGA: 74 (1945) JFK: 69 (2003) Lows: EWR: 16 (1981) NYC: 9 (1916) LGA: 15 (1967) JFK: 13 (1967) Historical: 1892 - A winter storm in southwestern and central Tennessee produced 26 inches of snow at Riddleton, and 18.5 inches at Memphis. It was the deepest snow of record for those areas. (David Ludlum) 1906 - The temperature at Snake River, WY, dipped to 50 degrees below zero, a record for the U.S. for the month of March. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1952: The ban on using the word "tornado" issued in 1886 ended on this date. In the 1880s, John P. Finley of the U.S. Army Signal Corps, then handling weather forecasting for the U.S., developed generalized forecasts on days tornadoes were most likely. But in 1886, the Army ended Finley's program and banned the word "tornado" from forecasts because the harm done by a tornado prediction would eventually be greater than that which results from the tornado itself. The thinking was that people would be trampled in the panic if they heard a tornado was possible. The ban stayed in place after the Weather Bureau; now, the National Weather Service took over forecasting from the Army. A tornado that wrecked 52 large aircraft at Tinker Air Force Base, OK, on 3/20/1948, spurred Air Force meteorologists to begin working on ways to forecast tornadoes. The Weather Bureau also began looking for ways to improve tornado forecasting and established the Severe Local Storm Warning Center, which is now the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. The ban on the word "tornado" fell on this date when the new center issued its first Tornado Watch. 1987 - A powerful spring storm produced severe thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast States, and heavy snow in the High Plains Region. A tornado caused three million dollars damage at Natchez MS, and six inches of rain in five hours caused five million dollars damage at Vicksburg MS. Cactus TX received 10 inches of snow. Western Kansas reported blizzard conditions. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow from the northeast Texas panhandle to the Ozark area of Missouri and Arkansas. Up to fifteen inches of snow was reported in Oklahoma and Texas. Snowfall totals in the Ozark area ranged up to 14 inches, with unofficial reports as high as 22 inches around Harrison AR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Strong northerly winds ushered snow and arctic cold into the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 58 mph at Sydney NE and Scottsbluff NE, Cadillac MI received 12 inches of snow, and International Falls MN reported a record low of 22 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow moving cold front produced torrential rains across parts of the southeastern U.S. over a two day period. Flooding claimed the lives of at least 22 persons, including thirteen in Alabama. Up to 16 inches of rain deluged southern Alabama, with 10.63 inches reported at Mobile AL in 24 hours. The town of Elba AL was flooded with 6 to 12 feet of water causing more than 25 million dollars damage, and total flood damage across Alabama exceeded 100 million dollars. Twenty-six counties in the state were declared disaster areas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Rainfall totals: LGA: 0.94 NYC: 0.91 JFK: 0.88 EWR: 0.66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Event total here = 1.00". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Great data, thanks! I like looking at max wind gusts, like this graphic, more than mean wind speeds, since I think people "feel" like it's windier than normal based on how often we have very gusty winds, whereas I don't think most are thinking about whether the mean wind speed is 12 mph or 10 mph over a month. It's like how people feel heat based on number of 90 degree days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 3 hours ago, bluewave said: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&var=max_gust&dir=aoa&thres=35&month=jan&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=js December tied for 1st place with the most days having 35KT or greater wind gusts at Newark. January was in first place with the most days with wind gusts at our above 35 KT at Newark and February was in 2nd place. So a very active Great Lakes cutter storm track with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. It’s why we got so little snowfall this winter despite the average temperatures close to long term average. Numerous seasons close to this 34.8° average temperature had significantly higher snowfalls. But on the 11 days with .25 of precipitation this winter NYC averaged 41° which is too warm for heavy snow. So this highlights the challenges of getting close to average or above average snowfall since 2018-2019 with such a fast Northern Stream and warm storm track pushed so far north. The windiest winter ever at JFK while 1995-96 was the least windiest, Chris? Do our snowiest winters tend to be less windy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 3 hours ago, Sundog said: About an inch of rain here, pretty good. 1 inch is good, not the 2-3 inches which would be too much and cause flooding. This is why I don't find drought maps useful-- they go strictly by numbers. Getting a multi inch monster rainstorm wouldn't solve our drought problem, it's just useless runoff and does more harm in the form of flooding than good. But looks great on drought maps. What we need is smaller rainfalls of around an inch or so once every week or 10 days, that's more beneficial than big rainfall events. This is what we used to get in the past not these big 3 inch rainstorms that became all too common starting about 20 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 54 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 57 / 56 clouds - 0.99 in the bucket. Clearing slowly by sunset. Back to the 60s Tue / Wed with sunshine. Some light rain / showers Thu evening into Friday. The weekend currently looks dry. Wetter to open the period 24 - 29 with trough coming into the east. Nice sunny and warm Tuesday and Wednesday and again Saturday and Sunday!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 1 inch is good, not the 2-3 inches which would be too much and cause flooding. This is why I don't find drought maps useful-- they go strictly by numbers. Getting a multi inch monster rainstorm wouldn't solve our drought problem, it's just useless runoff and does more harm in the form of flooding than good. But looks great on drought maps. What we need is smaller rainfalls of around an inch or so once every week or 10 days, that's more beneficial than big rainfall events. This is what we used to get in the past not these big 3 inch rainstorms that became all too common starting about 20 years ago. I'm not sure what you mean by strictly numbers? They don't just go by precip deficits and call it a day Precipitation plays a major role in the creation of the Drought Monitor, but the map’s authors consider many data sources. Some of the numeric inputs include precipitation, streamflow, reservoir levels, temperature and evaporative demand, soil moisture and vegetation health. No single piece of evidence tells the full story, and neither do strictly physical indicators. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2.08" overnight here. Couple good boomers too around midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 0.96" here. Pretty good soaking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 44 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm not sure what you mean by strictly numbers? They don't just go by precip deficits and call it a day Precipitation plays a major role in the creation of the Drought Monitor, but the map’s authors consider many data sources. Some of the numeric inputs include precipitation, streamflow, reservoir levels, temperature and evaporative demand, soil moisture and vegetation health. No single piece of evidence tells the full story, and neither do strictly physical indicators. Things like runoff and precipitation rate (not just total precipitation) and condition of the ground and type of material on the ground are important too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 36 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 0.96" here. Pretty good soaking. nice and it rained for many hours which is ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Hello everyone happy we got some good rain last night looking forward to more rain later this week! We need it. cloudy and 56 in midtown right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 12Z GFS still shows snow for Friday, which is not that far off. Of course, it's still alone showing snow south of 84 - would be amazing if somehow it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1.12” of rain on my gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Some much needed rains... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 7 hours ago, RU848789 said: Surprised nobody posted these last night. Yes, it's still a longshot at 8-9 days out, but it's not impossible to have snow in late March and it's nice to see two models showing some snow. I'm not feeling it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 18z GFS still likes the "snow" event: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 12z EURO is not that far off generally speaking: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 10 hours ago, RU848789 said: Surprised nobody posted these last night. Yes, it's still a longshot at 8-9 days out, but it's not impossible to have snow in late March and it's nice to see two models showing some snow. I wouldn't hold my breath on this if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 16 minutes ago, Sundog said: 18z GFS still likes the "snow" event: We track 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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