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March 2025


snowman19
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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This has also muted our summer heat in terms of extended heatwaves of 7+ days as well as extremely hot weather, 100+.

Another over the top warm up with the record warmth going to our north.

 

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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and unseasonably warm with temperatures rising into the lower and middle 60s. Showers and rain will arrive and continue into Monday. A thunderstorm is possible. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely in and around New York City. In the wake of the rainstorm, the mild weather will continue through the middle of next week. It could turn briefly cooler late next week.

The long-range guidance has turned warmer for much of the remainder of March. As a result, there is an increasing prospect that New York City has seen its last measurable snowfall of the 2024-2025 season.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +9.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.256 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.7° (3.9° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Ok, why are we posting about them in our thread?  That's 100s of miles away

Because it’s interesting that we are in the 40s and areas 500 miles to our north are sunny and 70. 

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2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Ok, why are we posting about them in our thread?  That's 100s of miles away

 

I've seen places that post pictures of 20 feet of snow in Japan in local forums too and no one bats an eye. 

Point is if the east wind wasn't here you'd be +20 right now

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16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and Montreal and Burlington are even warmer?

Onshore flow here and record warmth to the north has become very predictable with the strongest 500mb anomaly over Nova Scotia instead of to our south.


IMG_3254.thumb.png.b99f7b9e1f7001d39ff91cdd84f69d66.png

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Try again in December. It’s been over and done since 2/20 

And when that article say the northeast it doesn't mean the coast.  And generally just means crappy cloudy and cool/damp weather for most of us her...pass

And then, watch April, there may be some setbacks where we have some really cool periods and maybe even a little bit of snow, across the interior especially.”

 

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

And when that article say the northeast it doesn't mean the coast.  And generally just means crappy cloudy and cool/damp weather for most of us her...pass

And then, watch April, there may be some setbacks where we have some really cool periods and maybe even a little bit of snow, across the interior especially.”

 

Yea, interior, elevated Northern New England….

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

And when that article say the northeast it doesn't mean the coast.

And then, watch April, there may be some setbacks where we have some really cool periods and maybe even a little bit of snow, across the interior especially.”

Yeah I mean we're to the northeast what Key West is to Florida.

Minus the palm trees of course.

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Wind no thread.  The 00z/16 SPC HREF MINIMUM wind gust forecast for 22z/16.  This would suggest a wind advisory situation for at least coastal NJ to southern LI.   This would also cover marginal svr cells that dont have clear cut severe markers and could go either way, especially their isolated damage nature. The lead time would be much larger. Not my call, but for me big wind is big wind, no matter clear air, shower or Tstorm related. 6z/16 NAM FOUS, my own rule of thumb precursor signals including BL wind exceeding 26KT. Hopefully no one finds  a big tree branch on their car. 

SPC HREF indicators of isolated (spotty) 3" rainfall totals by tomorrow night in the NYC subforum, risk of primarily NJ/LI/CT.

Graphic added. Brown is 45 MPH plus for 22z today. We'll see how it works out. It's the MIN gust model expectation. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2025-03-16 at 8.40.29 AM.png

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