jm1220 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 45/cloudy gunk. Yay! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 20 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 45/cloudy gunk. Yay! Gfs continues that in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs continues that in the long range the ocean needs to be blowtorched and I mean with a real blow torch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: 45/cloudy gunk. Yay! Tuesday and Wednesday will be absolutely awesome though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: the ocean needs to be blowtorched and I mean with a real blow torch. That would ruin winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: 45/cloudy gunk. Yay! Upper 60s in Vermont and Montreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That would ruin winter No winter would be fine, more big snowstorms with a warmer ocean (more chances of bombogenesis). Arctic air also has a higher chance of coming towards us if the waters are warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: Upper 60s in Vermont and Montreal and close to 80 in Pittsburgh yesterday, I wonder if they are still warm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Some amazing super cells in Alabama currently. Check out the hooks on live radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: This has also muted our summer heat in terms of extended heatwaves of 7+ days as well as extremely hot weather, 100+. Another over the top warm up with the record warmth going to our north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, bluewave said: Another over the top warm up with the record warmth going to our north. and Montreal and Burlington are even warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and Montreal and Burlington are even warmer? Ok, why are we posting about them in our thread? That's 100s of miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Blue bird and 70 up north today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 14 minutes ago, FPizz said: Ok, why are we posting about them in our thread? That's 100s of miles away They were discussed earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and unseasonably warm with temperatures rising into the lower and middle 60s. Showers and rain will arrive and continue into Monday. A thunderstorm is possible. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely in and around New York City. In the wake of the rainstorm, the mild weather will continue through the middle of next week. It could turn briefly cooler late next week. The long-range guidance has turned warmer for much of the remainder of March. As a result, there is an increasing prospect that New York City has seen its last measurable snowfall of the 2024-2025 season. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. The SOI was +9.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.256 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.7° (3.9° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Stuck like glue in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Stuck in the muck all day here-mid 40's and low cloud deck-at least the mist and drizzle stopped around 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, FPizz said: Ok, why are we posting about them in our thread? That's 100s of miles away Because it’s interesting that we are in the 40s and areas 500 miles to our north are sunny and 70. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2 hours ago, FPizz said: Ok, why are we posting about them in our thread? That's 100s of miles away I've seen places that post pictures of 20 feet of snow in Japan in local forums too and no one bats an eye. Point is if the east wind wasn't here you'd be +20 right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 https://www.silive.com/weather/2025/03/ny-weather-strongest-polar-vortex-disruption-of-year-means-winter-weather-could-hit-northeast-this-april.html?utm_campaign=statenislandadvance_sf&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2sNmW9DmYi99EZT36SHs3NdRqbsgFujxIVWL_wJebv0qOtesG7uzNoJUM_aem_aP0O-29JpzEhvPJhsQq5Sw 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: https://www.silive.com/weather/2025/03/ny-weather-strongest-polar-vortex-disruption-of-year-means-winter-weather-could-hit-northeast-this-april.html?utm_campaign=statenislandadvance_sf&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2sNmW9DmYi99EZT36SHs3NdRqbsgFujxIVWL_wJebv0qOtesG7uzNoJUM_aem_aP0O-29JpzEhvPJhsQq5Sw Try again in December. It’s been over and done since 2/20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 16 hours ago, LibertyBell said: and Montreal and Burlington are even warmer? Onshore flow here and record warmth to the north has become very predictable with the strongest 500mb anomaly over Nova Scotia instead of to our south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Models wetter for tonight/tomorrow-NAM and RGEM 2 inches in spots especially east of the city 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Try again in December. It’s been over and done since 2/20 And when that article say the northeast it doesn't mean the coast. And generally just means crappy cloudy and cool/damp weather for most of us her...pass And then, watch April, there may be some setbacks where we have some really cool periods and maybe even a little bit of snow, across the interior especially.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: And when that article say the northeast it doesn't mean the coast. And generally just means crappy cloudy and cool/damp weather for most of us her...pass And then, watch April, there may be some setbacks where we have some really cool periods and maybe even a little bit of snow, across the interior especially.” Yea, interior, elevated Northern New England…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: And when that article say the northeast it doesn't mean the coast. And then, watch April, there may be some setbacks where we have some really cool periods and maybe even a little bit of snow, across the interior especially.” Yeah I mean we're to the northeast what Key West is to Florida. Minus the palm trees of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Just now, snowman19 said: Yea, interior, elevated Northern New England…. It's just going to be more murky chilly drizzly misty rainy annoying weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Wind no thread. The 00z/16 SPC HREF MINIMUM wind gust forecast for 22z/16. This would suggest a wind advisory situation for at least coastal NJ to southern LI. This would also cover marginal svr cells that dont have clear cut severe markers and could go either way, especially their isolated damage nature. The lead time would be much larger. Not my call, but for me big wind is big wind, no matter clear air, shower or Tstorm related. 6z/16 NAM FOUS, my own rule of thumb precursor signals including BL wind exceeding 26KT. Hopefully no one finds a big tree branch on their car. SPC HREF indicators of isolated (spotty) 3" rainfall totals by tomorrow night in the NYC subforum, risk of primarily NJ/LI/CT. Graphic added. Brown is 45 MPH plus for 22z today. We'll see how it works out. It's the MIN gust model expectation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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