March 2025

[uofmiami]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

good thing it's not a snowstorm

That’s usually 10 days out 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i'm willing to put money down that we won't see a 5 day average with a negative departure in the next two weeks

I am not ready to take that bet lol

Gun to head if you ask me blindly what the deparrtures would be for any time period in the future I always go positive. 

[Stormlover74]

Still wildly different for Sunday nights rain. 6z is a little wetter on the gfs

[LibertyBell]

wow  https://x.com/HamptonsDrone/status/1899150346259173421

[Picard]

16 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Before the leaves pop on the trees you can see lots of huge diurnal swings like these. Hope we all enjoyed today and yesterday before the onshore gunk onslaught. 

22/70 out at the Walpack station yesterday, Sussex County.
21/68 the day before.  Walpack can really go nuts this time of year.

[forkyfork]

another above average day. make spring cold fronts cold again

[steve392]

Beautiful chilly day out there! 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Beautiful chilly day out there! 

I wouldn't call 55 and sunny chilly....

it is beautiful though I'm surprised how much sun there is out there today and looking at the next two days, it's been changed to partly cloudy for tomorrow and for Friday too and both days in the low 50s, so the chances of being able to see that total eclipse are getting higher.

[steve392]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wouldn't call 55 and sunny chilly....

it is beautiful though I'm surprised how much sun there is out there today and looking at the next two days, it's been changed to partly cloudy for tomorrow and for Friday too and both days in the low 50s, so the chances of being able to see that total eclipse are getting higher.

It's chilly for me.  Ever since my surgery last year I get cold often.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow  https://x.com/HamptonsDrone/status/1899150346259173421

It’s really not shocking. What’s left of the pine barrens will soon be consumed by the southern pine bark beetle anyway. Eventually the pitch pine will be replaced with dwarf red and white oak. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s really not shocking. What’s left of the pine barrens will soon be consumed by the southern pine bark beetle anyway. Eventually the pitch pine will be replaced with dwarf red and white oak. 

and over here we have those damned spotted lanternflies which were a real pest last summer

any chance that cold winter killed them off?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, steve392 said:

It's chilly for me.  Ever since my surgery last year I get cold often.  

so sorry to hear that, what kind of surgery if you don't mind me asking?

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and over here we have those damned spotted lanternflies which were a real pest last summer

any chance that cold winter killed them off?

 

The pine bark beetles? Probably not, we would need a couple nights below zero. The lantern flies definitely not, they are native to Asia where Siberian air masses can drop temps well below zero at our latitude. It’s really about the combo of lowest temps and duration.

[forkyfork]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still wildly different for Sunday nights rain. 6z is a little wetter on the gfs

12z euro is west 

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

12z euro is west 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

Awesome. Wildfires and drought=bad. Get it a little further west to fill the reservoirs. 

[uofmiami]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Awesome. Wildfires and drought=bad. Get it a little further west to fill the reservoirs. 

Let's hope the model doesn't lower QPF as we approach the event.

[guinness77]

March 27th. 
 

its on! 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The pine bark beetles? Probably not, we would need a couple nights below zero. The lantern flies definitely not, they are native to Asia where Siberian air masses can drop temps well below zero at our latitude. It’s really about the combo of lowest temps and duration.

Yeah most of the eggs survive unless it's something really crazy.   I'd expect another bumper crop of lantern flies.

[Sundog]

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah most of the eggs survive unless it's something really crazy.   I'd expect another bumper crop of lantern flies.

 

It's amazing there are any trees at all on this planet with all these damned pests. 

 

I had a 60 year old Ash tree with a beautiful crown get wrecked by the Emerald Ash Borer. Imagine paying a few thousand dollars to remove a tree you never wanted removed to begin because of something the size of a freakin dime. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

another above average day. make spring cold fronts cold again

Looks like 70 degrees might be possible again next Wednesday?

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, Sundog said:

 

It's amazing there are any trees at all on this planet with all these damned pests. 

 

I had a 60 year old Ash tree with a beautiful crown get wrecked by the Emerald Ash Borer. Imagine paying a few thousand dollars to remove a tree you never wanted removed to begin because of something the size of a freakin dime. 

why cant we wipe out these pests instead of wiping out vital bees and butterflies?

 

[steve392]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

so sorry to hear that, what kind of surgery if you don't mind me asking?

Gastric bypass.  Worst thing I've ever been through. Only had it because of how bad of a hiatal hernia I had.  Was only way to fix it. 

[steve392]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why cant we wipe out these pests instead of wiping out vital bees and butterflies?

 

Exactly, how do the good or important ones die off but pieces of crap lily red beetles survive and are already eating my asiatic Lillie's that barely popped through the surface?? 

[donsutherland1]

Rain could arrive on Sunday and continue into Monday. The potential exists for a moderate to significant rainfall.

The risk of a moderate (4" or more) in the New York City area remains low through at least the first three weeks of March. A significant or substantial snowfall in New York City is unlikely for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. There is an increasing prospect that New York City has seen its last measurable snowfall of the 2024-2025 season.

The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February dissipated during the first week of March. However, the peak magnitude of that previous PNA ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops.  

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +7.42 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.157 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.8° (4.0° above normal).

 

[Stormlover74]

Sunday may largely be dry as the rain looks to hold off til evening. 18z euro is still very wet

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

so sorry to hear that, what kind of surgery if you don't mind me asking?

Gastric bypass.  Worst thing I've ever been through. Only had it because of how bad of a hiatal hernia I had.  Was only way to fix it. 

Sounds like a rough go.  I hope you are doing better now.

[MorristownWx]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sunday may largely be dry as the rain looks to hold off til evening. 18z euro is still very wet

Beautiful weather this week and some much needed rain Sunday night - as good as it gets!

[Roger Smith]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like 70 degrees might be possible again next Wednesday?

With the SW wind it probably will soar towards 80F in places. 

[MorristownWx]

9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

With the SW wind it probably will soar towards 80F in places. 

Somewhere MJO is crying into a pillow