March 2025

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's easier to look at average snowfall, warmer climate means more moisture and volatility. The 90s was a perfect example of this. 2 above average snowfall winters and a higher decade average than the 70s or 80s. I mean the other years of the 90s outside of the below average 92/93 were absolutely putrid for snowfall and STILL highest snowfall decade.

Think about this year the cold did not help us much.

That winter it helped because everything was so marginal.  That was one winter where almost every storm trended colder.  If you go just south of our area, Philly, they only had average snowfall.

 

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it would be absolutely hilarious if we had a winter like 2015-16 with 40 inches of snow (at JFK) with an average winter temperature of 40 degrees-- 6 degrees warmer than this winter!

 

Yeah this is precisely my thinking. Just like last year's storm that blew up and hit New Jersey with a ton of snow, the increased volatility will compensate for the increased temperatures. 

Something to keep in mind and it's important is although we have seen the temperatures rise we are still seeing snow in multiple snow events in the Middle Atlantic / Delmarva region. Even a fluke event on the Gulf Coast. 

Also we have seen snow in November in the past 7 years as well as a dusting in May. So while our snow events have decreased in frequency in the beginning and end of a season it is not impossible. 

You have to be careful of speculation that what has occurred in a very short window of time is the new Norm. 

We still have naos that do not link up with the southeast ridge. 

We have not seen persistent forcing in phases four five and six due to the warm Waters in Indonesia. 

We have not seen the end of below average temperature seasons as experienced this winter. 

Therefore you have to be careful in speculating that what we have seen with regards to the fast pac is now never going to change. So far I have not seen one thing that has become a new Norm that we were afraid of. We need more years of persistence to even entertain that thought. 

 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That winter it helped because everything was so marginal.  That was one winter where almost every storm trended colder.  If you go just south of our area, Philly, they only had average snowfall.

 

Correct. We may lose snow in a similar setup today, however, all those storms like the blizzard of 96 where we had a lot of verga because it was 12° outside would likely be more snowfall today. This is the offset I was talking about. Heck even the blizzard of December 2009 had a lot of virga.

 

[SACRUS]

 

40 / 28 cloudy. Back into the 50s in an overall warm 8 of 10 days.  Around an inch or greater overnight Tue into tomorrow, wash the salt away. Briefly colder this weekend Sat/Sun before a stronger warmup, warmest since Nov  3/10 - 3/14.  We'll see if it remains dry in the period.  Beyond there looks back and forth near normal but would turn wetter after mid month.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 72 (1974)
NYC: 70 (1974)
LGA: 69 (1946)
JFK: 59 (1965)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 6 (1943)
NYC: 6 (1872)
LGA: 7 (1943)
JFK: 12 (1950)


Historical:

 

1909 - Though fair weather was forecast, President Taft was inaugurated amidst a furious storm. About ten inches of wet snow disrupted travel and communications. The storm drew much criticism against the U.S. Weather Bureau. (David Ludlum)

1953 - Snow was reported on the island of Oahu in Hawaii. (The Weather Channel)

 

1960: Eastern Massachusetts' most significant March snowstorm occurred on March 4-5th, 1960. The storm produced record 24-hour snowfall totals 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph.

1966 - A severe blizzard raged across Minnesota and North Dakota. The blizzard lasted four days producing up to 35 inches of snow, and wind gusting to 100 mph produced snow drifts 30 to 40 feet high. Bismarck ND reported zero visibility for 11 hours. Traffic was paralyzed for three days. (2nd-5th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1971: A potent storm system blasted the northeastern U.S. on March 3-5th, 1971. The barometric pressure dropped to 28.36 inches at Worcester, MA, for the lowest pressure recorded at that location.

 

1983: Brownsville, Texas, recorded a high of 100 degrees, the earliest the city has ever hit the century mark. 

1987 - Rain and high winds prevailed in the northwestern U.S. A wind gust to 69 mph at Klamath Falls OR was their highest in 25 years, and winds at the Ashland Ranger Station in the Siskiyou Mountains of northern California reached 85 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow and freezing rain made travel hazardous in Ohio and Indiana. A six car pile-up resulted near Columbus OH, with seven injuries reported. Up to two inches of ice glazed central Indiana. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley. A strong (F-3) tornado injured five persons near Brownsville MS, and killed seven cows and two hogs in one pasture. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 90 mph at Canton MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A Pacific cold front working its way across the western U.S. produced heavy snow over parts of Idaho, Nevada and Utah. Up to eleven inches of snow blanketed the valleys of northwest Utah, while 12 to 25 inches fell across the mountains of northern Utah. Up to six inches of snow blanketed the valleys of east central Nevada, while more than a foot of snow was reported in the high elevations. In Idaho, 6 to 8 inches of snow was reported around Aberdeen and American Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - An F0 tornado 2 miles north of Muldrow breaks a record stretch of days without a reported tornado, 292 days.

2008 - Only two days after reaching 78 degrees, St. Louis receives nearly a foot of snow in seven hours, the biggest snowstorm in 15 years.

[SACRUS]

 

Colder 2 days, likely coldest till next fall.

 

3/2

NYC: 34 / 19 (-12)
EWR: 37 / 21 (-10)

33
NYC:  39 / 23 (-8)
EWR: 41 / 22 (-7)

[Stormlover74]

Omaha finally getting theirs. Not a lot of snow but it's 58 right now so this will be kinda crazy tonight 

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of one to three inches expected, as much as five inches possible.  Winds gusting as high as 65 mph. Flash freeze expected.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Omaha finally getting theirs. Not a lot of snow but it's 58 right now so this will be kinda crazy tonight 

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of one to three inches expected, as much as five inches possible.  Winds gusting as high as 65 mph. Flash freeze expected.

Msp as well 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just have to wait until the fast pac slows down. Hopefully next year.

I knew the second I saw JB hyping the weekend for a big I-95 snowstorm it was doomed

[winterwarlock]

This seems more like a banter/grievance thread than a March weather discussion thread

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Omaha finally getting theirs. Not a lot of snow but it's 58 right now so this will be kinda crazy tonight 

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of one to three inches expected, as much as five inches possible.  Winds gusting as high as 65 mph. Flash freeze expected.

 

 

 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No that can't be right, benchmark tracks are the classic *normal* track on most storm track maps.  Also, inside the benchmark tracks can also be heavy snowfall tracks (see Millennium storm).

Either way, in a colder climate, there are many other ways to get a good snowfall event here.

Statistically speaking we have averaged an 8 inch snowstorm every other winter (using all of NYC's climate history) and average 3 or 4  4 inch snowstorms per winter.

 

100% of all seasons since the 1990s with average to above average snowfall had benchmark snowstorm tracks. I am using a 19” to 31” range as average for EWR to ISP. Who cares if it’s say only 15% of the total storm tracks if it’s that 15% which is 100% critical to our seasonal snowfall reaching average. So remove the 15% and you are 100% guaranteeing a below average snowfall season. I not sure of the exact percentage but just using the 15% figure being discussed. 

In the colder climate from the 60s to early 90s, we could rely on tracks to the west of the benchmark including huggers ,clippers, and inside runners to get to average snowfall in the 19” to 26” range. It was even cold enough at times to get decent front end thumps with cutters since it would take longer to scour out the cold air. But the bigger seasons over 30” had benchmark tracks added to the mix.

Now we struggle to get much past 15” in recent years around NYC with cutters, and huggers which are significantly warmer than they used to be. Plus we also lost the clipper snowstorm tracks. This is why we are going to need the benchmark tracks return in coming years for our area to reach average or above average snowfall. And avoid a permanent shift well below 20” as our new norm. The next several years will be telling if we are to avoid extending these 7 year record snowfall lows into 10 years or more.

 

[North and West]

No reason to use any other model other then the AI

Is there information available on showing it being better? Interesting to see how it may continually improve.


.

[Brian5671]

Not many big wound up cutters this year either we can certainly use the moisture

[Stormlover74]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not many big wound up cutters this year either we can certainly use the moisture

Let's see if we can crack half an inch tomorrow

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Let's see if we can crack half an inch tomorrow

meso models show some upslope rains in some areas-kind of cool to see

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

meso models show some upslope rains in some areas-kind of cool to see

Strong SSE flow into the Poconos/Catskills, could be some fairly heavy amounts there which is great for reservoirs. 

[snowman19]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Strong SSE flow into the Poconos/Catskills, could be some fairly heavy amounts there which is great for reservoirs. 

Maybe we can actually get a rain event to overperform for the 1st time since early August….

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Strong SSE flow into the Poconos/Catskills, could be some fairly heavy amounts there which is great for reservoirs. 

[Sundog]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

3K NAM is actually one of the driest models for the geneal area, especially south of NYC, along with the GFS.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

3K NAM is actually one of the driest models for the geneal area, especially south of NYC, along with the GFS.

Yeah-was using it to show more of the upslope potential.

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah-was using it to show more of the upslope potential.

It should be a good soaking for the area.

"should"

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

It should be a good soaking for the area.

"should"

yeah hopefully we don't wake up tomorrow and see a terrible radar

[Allsnow]

EPS cooled off for next week haha

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS cooled off for next week haha

Negative nao trending stronger for next week 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

Is there information available on showing it being better? Interesting to see how it may continually improve.


.

Meanwhile see this..... older AI showing signs of dementia.

https://www.indy100.com/science-tech/ai-chatbot-cognitive-decline-dementia

Roy Dayan and Benjamin Uliel, both neurologists, put several different chatbots through a series of cognitive tests that are typically used to assess humans for brain functions such as short-term memory, executive function and focused attention, and can test for cognitive conditions such as Parkinson’s disease and Alzheimer’s.

According to the researchers, they observed “cognitive decline that seems comparable to neurodegenerative processes in the human brain”.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Correct. We may lose snow in a similar setup today, however, all those storms like the blizzard of 96 where we had a lot of verga because it was 12° outside would likely be more snowfall today. This is the offset I was talking about. Heck even the blizzard of December 2009 had a lot of virga.

 

12/09 also had a track a little too far east (although we did well here on Long Island-- 15 inches even at JFK.)  I didn't know January 1996 had any virga though and I thought that the much colder temperatures resulted in a higher snow to liquid ratio (like PD2 and February 1983 and January 2016.)

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah this is precisely my thinking. Just like last year's storm that blew up and hit New Jersey with a ton of snow, the increased volatility will compensate for the increased temperatures. 

Something to keep in mind and it's important is although we have seen the temperatures rise we are still seeing snow in multiple snow events in the Middle Atlantic / Delmarva region. Even a fluke event on the Gulf Coast. 

Also we have seen snow in November in the past 7 years as well as a dusting in May. So while our snow events have decreased in frequency in the beginning and end of a season it is not impossible. 

You have to be careful of speculation that what has occurred in a very short window of time is the new Norm. 

We still have naos that do not link up with the southeast ridge. 

We have not seen persistent forcing in phases four five and six due to the warm Waters in Indonesia. 

We have not seen the end of below average temperature seasons as experienced this winter. 

Therefore you have to be careful in speculating that what we have seen with regards to the fast pac is now never going to change. So far I have not seen one thing that has become a new Norm that we were afraid of. We need more years of persistence to even entertain that thought. 

 

I think we are seeing more snow in January than we used to.  The 80s Januarys were colder, but aside from January 1987 we did not see any KU events in January.  And I don't believe there was a single January 20"+ HECS until January 1996 came along.  And now we've had multiple.  January 2011 (19 inches)-- I'm putting that in the list because it was so close to 20, and of course January 2016.

 

[Allsnow]

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 72 (1974)
NYC: 70 (1974)
LGA: 69 (1946)
JFK: 59 (1965)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 6 (1943)
NYC: 6 (1872)
LGA: 7 (1943)
JFK: 12 (1950)


Historical:

 

1909 - Though fair weather was forecast, President Taft was inaugurated amidst a furious storm. About ten inches of wet snow disrupted travel and communications. The storm drew much criticism against the U.S. Weather Bureau. (David Ludlum)

1953 - Snow was reported on the island of Oahu in Hawaii. (The Weather Channel)

 

1960: Eastern Massachusetts' most significant March snowstorm occurred on March 4-5th, 1960. The storm produced record 24-hour snowfall totals 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph.

1966 - A severe blizzard raged across Minnesota and North Dakota. The blizzard lasted four days producing up to 35 inches of snow, and wind gusting to 100 mph produced snow drifts 30 to 40 feet high. Bismarck ND reported zero visibility for 11 hours. Traffic was paralyzed for three days. (2nd-5th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1971: A potent storm system blasted the northeastern U.S. on March 3-5th, 1971. The barometric pressure dropped to 28.36 inches at Worcester, MA, for the lowest pressure recorded at that location.

 

1983: Brownsville, Texas, recorded a high of 100 degrees, the earliest the city has ever hit the century mark. 

1987 - Rain and high winds prevailed in the northwestern U.S. A wind gust to 69 mph at Klamath Falls OR was their highest in 25 years, and winds at the Ashland Ranger Station in the Siskiyou Mountains of northern California reached 85 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow and freezing rain made travel hazardous in Ohio and Indiana. A six car pile-up resulted near Columbus OH, with seven injuries reported. Up to two inches of ice glazed central Indiana. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley. A strong (F-3) tornado injured five persons near Brownsville MS, and killed seven cows and two hogs in one pasture. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 90 mph at Canton MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A Pacific cold front working its way across the western U.S. produced heavy snow over parts of Idaho, Nevada and Utah. Up to eleven inches of snow blanketed the valleys of northwest Utah, while 12 to 25 inches fell across the mountains of northern Utah. Up to six inches of snow blanketed the valleys of east central Nevada, while more than a foot of snow was reported in the high elevations. In Idaho, 6 to 8 inches of snow was reported around Aberdeen and American Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - An F0 tornado 2 miles north of Muldrow breaks a record stretch of days without a reported tornado, 292 days.

2008 - Only two days after reaching 78 degrees, St. Louis receives nearly a foot of snow in seven hours, the biggest snowstorm in 15 years.

1953 - Snow was reported on the island of Oahu in Hawaii. (The Weather Channel)

 

Wow, Oahu doesn't even have any tall mountains-- I wonder at what elevation this snow occurred and how much accumulation there was?