March 2025

[MJO812]

The AI Euro have been really consistent with not showing a hit. 

Time for me to put my winter stuff away. I had high hopes. O well.

[bluewave]

Good to see the GFS joining the Euro on 70° potential next week for the warm spots as everyone is ready for spring at this point.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Good to see the GFS joining the Euro on 70° potential next week for the warm spots as everyone is ready for spring at this point.

nice to see even the south shore in the 60s to near 70.

 

[Yanksfan]

Another disappointing winter coming to a close. That makes the 4th consecutive winter with below normal snowfall for the season for me  and 6 out of 7. This decade rivals the 1980’s snow drought. Is there hope for next year? Perhaps. The early call is for a weak/moderate modoki which would be great for snow potential for the eastern US although I’m keeping my enthusiasm in check until I see the raging Pacific Jet shows signs of slowing down.

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Another disappointing winter coming to a close. That makes the 4th consecutive winter with below normal snowfall for the season for me  and 6 out of 7. This decade rivals the 1980’s snow drought. Is there hope for next year? Perhaps. The early call is for a weak/moderate modoki which would be great for snow potential for the eastern US although I’m keeping my enthusiasm in check until I see the raging Pacific Jet shows signs of slowing down.

Yep. The 60s in sun on Sat felt wonderful. Kick this disappointment of a winter to the curb. It’ll be known for useless cold and endless failed opportunities. Like you said until the Pacific reorients into a less hostile state east of Japan we have a high risk of it happening again next winter regardless of it officially turning Nina or Nino. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 The little wave on Saturday ruins the big storm.

Story of this whole wretched winter, some wave or kicker etc ruins the setup because the Pacific is atrociously hostile and won’t allow anything to amplify in the right place. 

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We had about a foot of snow here followed by sleet and then rain that packed it down to around 6 inches in March 1993 and then the cold snap that followed froze everything solid.  As far as snowstorms are concerned, February 1983 had more of an impact here (of course-- that was 2 feet of snow lol.)  December 1992 was one in which I thought my house was going to blow down because our fences came down on all sides and the wind was howling for the better part of a week and the entire shape of the coastline was changed.

 

Had 11.5 on the superstorm before the sleet and rain. 16 in February 1983

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 The little wave on Saturday ruins the big storm.

Just have to wait until the fast pac slows down. Hopefully next year.

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Story of this whole wretched winter, some wave or kicker etc ruins the setup because the Pacific is atrociously hostile and won’t allow anything to amplify in the right place. 

Yeah, we effectively got a mild Pacific zonal flow this winter on the days that .25 of precipitation fell in NYC. Those days averaged 41.5°. Same story since 18-19 with cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks dominating.

 

[Allsnow]

No reason to use any other model other then the AI

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Good to see the GFS joining the Euro on 70° potential next week for the warm spots as everyone is ready for spring at this point.

The -nao is going to screw us after one day near 70

[MJO812]

58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Story of this whole wretched winter, some wave or kicker etc ruins the setup because the Pacific is atrociously hostile and won’t allow anything to amplify in the right place. 

The wave on the 12z and 18z gfs yesterday was weaker than what the 0z and 6z gfs showed. 

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No reason to use any other model other then the AI

The Euro AI has been really good this winter. Maybe we should only use that model going forward instead of the op runs. 

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The -nao is going to screw us after one day near 70

Like clockwork

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 The little wave on Saturday ruins the big storm.

Also the NE forum had a great point, non-benchmark tracks are approx 85% of our normal storm track. So even taking the fast pac out it's hard to get a heavy snow event here.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Also the NE forum had a great point, non-benchmark tracks are approx 85% of our normal storm track. So even taking the fast pac out it's hard to get a heavy snow event here.

No that can't be right, benchmark tracks are the classic *normal* track on most storm track maps.  Also, inside the benchmark tracks can also be heavy snowfall tracks (see Millennium storm).

Either way, in a colder climate, there are many other ways to get a good snowfall event here.

Statistically speaking we have averaged an 8 inch snowstorm every other winter (using all of NYC's climate history) and average 3 or 4  4 inch snowstorms per winter.

 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Also the NE forum had a great point, non-benchmark tracks are approx 85% of our normal storm track. So even taking the fast pac out it's hard to get a heavy snow event here.

Yeah, 85% of the other storm tracks happen more…

 

Amazing stuff haha 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The -nao is going to screw us after one day near 70

The good news is that it will be mild Pacific air trapped under the block. So we’ll drop back closer to seasonable temperatures for a time. But not the highs in the low 30s and lows near 20° like we just got. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, 85% of the other storm tracks happen more…

 

Amazing stuff haha 

Even using his calculations (which can't be right), it still means 2-3 benchmark tracks every winter on average.

And 4-6 if we get storms more frequently than once a week.

 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No that can't be right, benchmark tracks are the classic *normal* track on most storm track maps.  Also, inside the benchmark tracks can also be heavy snowfall tracks (see Millennium storm).

Either way, in a colder climate, there are many other ways to get a good snowfall event here.

Statistically speaking we have averaged an 8 inch snowstorm every other winter (using all of NYC's climate history) and average 3 or 4  4 inch snowstorms per winter.

 

I can't disagree with them as they have been correct on almost everything so far. 

Thinking about it though it HAS to be correct. For 30 freaking years we had almost no snow lol. 2000 through 2018 we had a bonanza but that is half of the duldrum period. 

Also think about how much space there is outside of the benchmark track.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Even using his calculations (which can't be right), it still means 2-3 benchmark tracks every winter on average.

And 4-6 if we get storms more frequently than once a week.

 

I would suggest taking it up in the NE forum. However think about how much territory surrounds the benchmark track. 15% actually seems high.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I can't disagree with them as they have been correct on almost everything so far. 

Thinking about it though it HAS to be correct. For 30 freaking years we had almost no snow lol. 2000 through 2018 we had a bonanza but that is half of the duldrum period. 

Also think about how much space there is outside of the benchmark track.

They really don't know our climate and have generally been resistant to climate change ideas.  Not climate deniers, just resistant to it.

I made a quick in my head calculation even based on those numbers and it still means 2-3 benchmark tracks per winter if we have a storm once a week and 4-6 if we have them twice a week.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I would suggest taking it up in the NE forum. However think about how much territory surrounds the benchmark track. 15% actually seems high.

But even using their numbers it still means we should get a bench mark track about once a month.  The fast Pacific clearly has an influence.

And it isn't just us who haven't gotten much snow this year, snowfall has been historically low in Minneapolis, Chicago, Omaha, etc.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

But even using their numbers it still means we should get a bench mark track about once a month.  The fast Pacific clearly has an influence.

And it isn't just us who haven't gotten much snow this year, snowfall has been historically low in Minneapolis, Chicago, Omaha, etc.

 

I bet the fast pac had an influence in our bad snow years in the past.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But even using their numbers it still means we should get a bench mark track about once a month.  The fast Pacific clearly has an influence.

And it isn't just us who haven't gotten much snow this year, snowfall has been historically low in Minneapolis, Chicago, Omaha, etc.

 

Yeah but you have to think that in great snow years you can get a benchmark track 2 to 3 times a month. Other years nothing.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I can't disagree with them as they have been correct on almost everything so far. 

Thinking about it though it HAS to be correct. For 30 freaking years we had almost no snow lol. 2000 through 2018 we had a bonanza but that is half of the duldrum period. 

Also think about how much space there is outside of the benchmark track.

The 70s and 80s still had more snow than we are seeing now.  Also if you go strictly by 4 inch snowfalls, we got at least one of those every year.

I generally agree that we had less snow in those decades, but this decade has been even less snowy by a significant margin plus --much-- warmer.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I bet the fast pac had an influence in our bad snow years in the past.

Yes it probably has but now it's having even more of an effect.  Even in those previous bad years we almost always had at least one 4 inch snowstorm every season.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah but you have to think that in great snow years you can get a benchmark track 2 to 3 times a month. Other years nothing.

and then you have a year like 1993-94 where you have like 30 storms lol

We got snow even in non benchmark track storms back then.

I think we only had 2-3 benchmark tracks that entire winter but still had over 50 inches of snow.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I can't disagree with them as they have been correct on almost everything so far. 

Thinking about it though it HAS to be correct. For 30 freaking years we had almost no snow lol. 2000 through 2018 we had a bonanza but that is half of the duldrum period. 

Also think about how much space there is outside of the benchmark track.

You have to think those outside tracks are included in their calculations.

There are tracks more rare than benchmark tracks-- Apps Runner is one of them.  The lack of those tracks is why State College has been in a snowfall drought for a few decades now.

 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The 70s and 80s still had more snow than we are seeing now.  Also if you go strictly by 4 inch snowfalls, we got at least one of those every year.

I generally agree that we had less snow in those decades, but this decade has been even less snowy by a significant margin plus --much-- warmer.

All we need it approx 21 inches next year to be in perfect alignment with the 80s WRT snowfall. Just a little more to align with the 70s and 90s.

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and then you have a year like 1993-94 where you have like 30 storms lol

We got snow even in non benchmark track storms back then.

I think we only had 2-3 benchmark tracks that entire winter but still had over 50 inches of snow.

It's easier to look at average snowfall, warmer climate means more moisture and volatility. The 90s was a perfect example of this. 2 above average snowfall winters and a higher decade average than the 70s or 80s. I mean the other years of the 90s outside of the below average 92/93 were absolutely putrid for snowfall and STILL highest snowfall decade.

Think about this year the cold did not help us much.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

All we need it approx 21 inches next year to be in perfect alignment with the 80s WRT snowfall. Just a little more to align with the 70s and 90s.

it would be absolutely hilarious if we had a winter like 2015-16 with 40 inches of snow (at JFK) with an average winter temperature of 40 degrees-- 6 degrees warmer than this winter!